CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

Folks CMC and some other model now want to take it out to sea...before reaching 60W...

hopefully this verifies and send this one fishing..

I agree gator, based on the trending of those models, this one might be a fish storm afterall. It doesn't take much for a storm to find a weakness and curve it out to sea, perhaps that's what these models are latching onto...

If this becomes a fish, that will be the best for all. But the ridge is strong and it's not forecasted to weaken.

[Sanibel]

That flat, elongated look is because the ridge is strong and has it. That is why it is sheared from the east. Should fast-forward this for business after 45W.

Don't doubt hurricane with this. It has curled the entire ITCZ under it to its SW.

[clevelandindians]

That flat, elongated look is because the ridge is strong and has it. That is why it is sheared from the east. Should fast-forward this for business after 45W.

Don't doubt hurricane with this. It has curled the entire ITCZ under it to its SW.

i expect a TS by at the latest 11am tomrrow

[storms in NC]

Should slow up around the 50-55 imo But that could be to late. But it seem to be strong to hold on till then. again JMO

[EyELeSs1]

outflow is expanding from north through to west and south of the center...althought circ seems to be a bit more elongated now

[ronjon]

ok, please remain calm ladies and gentlemen. The 12Z UKMET just arrived - this one seems more realistic. Much more gradual W-NW turn toward the Virgin Islands. Note the strong ridge building to its north at the end of the run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2007081312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[clevelandindians]

so do you think this will still be TD 4 at 5?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 32.2W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042007



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 13.08.2007 11.8N 32.2W WEAK

00UTC 14.08.2007 11.1N 33.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.08.2007 11.3N 36.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.08.2007 11.8N 39.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.08.2007 11.1N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.08.2007 12.6N 44.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.08.2007 12.2N 48.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.08.2007 13.0N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.08.2007 13.3N 54.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.08.2007 14.1N 56.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.08.2007 15.9N 58.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.08.2007 17.4N 60.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.08.2007 18.9N 63.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/ukmet.txt

12z UKMET hit to northern Leewards.

[EyELeSs1]

so do you think this will still be TD 4 at 5?

edit: didn't see 'still' so yes i believe still TD 4

[EyELeSs1]

13/1745 UTC 12.0N 32.0W T2.0/2.0 04L -- Atlantic Ocean

location where i thought

[CrazyC83]

TS Dean at 5? I don't think so.

[clevelandindians]

is it just me or are my 25 year old eyes seeing the models shifting north?

[EyELeSs1]

horrible news!

[JonathanBelles]

TS Dean at 5? I don't think so.

I dont think so either. Its looking pretty bad right now.

[cycloneye]

horrible news!

I know my friend in Antigua.But these models will flip-flop in tracks with every run.What we have to watch is the system itself how it is moving and lets forget about the models.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

North on last frame!

[windstorm99]

[EyELeSs1]

Tropical Depression Four formed near 12.0n 31.6w at 13/1500 UTC
moving west 18 kt. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb.
The maximum sustained wind speeds were 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Please refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers miatcmat4/wtnt24 knhc and the public advisory
under miatcpat4/wtnt34 knhc for more details. Numerous strong
showers and thunderstorms from 11n to 12n between 33w and 35w.
Isolated moderate showers and thunderstorms are from 8n to 10n
between 30w and 34w.

nothing new here

[Lowpressure]

so do you think this will still be TD 4 at 5?

Yes, upgrade is not very likely due to partially exposed LLC, but this system has the signature of a strong system if it can vertical stack, several posters are eluding to that around 45-50 degrees it should slow and be more to deal with.

[clevelandindians]

north shift
!!?!?!?!?!?!