CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jasons2k]

RE: models and their apparent "shift" north

Remember two things:

1) There may be wild swings in the path based on what the GFS does with the ridge. A small change in heights can make a HUGE difference in the path, especially this far out.

2) As the GFS goes, so goes most of other models.

Don't read too luch into it. It's still very early at this point anything can happen.

[EyELeSs1]

i think IMO that if you look at the overall picture and the overall circulation you can see some banding wrapping up on the south side and around the east side which could help to protect the center for a while until it's gets to less shear

[clevelandindians]

cat 4?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Can someone post the 12Z GFDL Map?

[windstorm99]

Thats my bad posted the AVN model.

[EyELeSs1]

is the 12z GFDL out now?

Just noticed the model output i was looking @ was from 6z but can't seem to find 12Z on the site

[DESTRUCTION5]

its on here...Poleward Ho!
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif

[AtlanticWind]

Convection is holding.

Looks like the center is exposed again

[cpdaman]

based on visible or other tools where is the LLC center (co-ordinates now) is at long 33W?

[Wx_Warrior]

Hmm...interesting...Can't wait to see EURO....Looks like they are picking up on some EC bound as well.

[EyELeSs1]

anyone have some insight on the intensity from the 12z model guidance??

greatly appreciated
thx

[ConvergenceZone]

Folks CMC and some other model now want to take it out to sea...before reaching 60W...

hopefully this verifies and send this one fishing..

I agree gator, based on the trending of those models, this one might be a fish storm afterall. It doesn't take much for a storm to find a weakness and curve it out to sea, perhaps that's what these models are latching onto...

[storms in NC]

Hmm...interesting...Can't wait to see EURO....Looks like they are picking up on some EC bound as well.

Looks like follow the leader LOL it will change.

[Lowpressure]

Banding looking better- northern channel looks good. LLC almost exposed again on the eastern side however. If it slows down- it's on.

[HURAKAN]

Another burst.

[EyELeSs1]

based on visible or other tools where is the LLC center (co-ordinates now) is at long 33W?

looks to be exactly @ 12N and just a tad before 32W.... definitely exposed

[storms in NC]

Banding looking better- northern channel looks good. LLC almost exposed again on the eastern side however. If it slows down- it's on.

You are right it needs to slow.

[artist]

since the BAMS are the more accurate in the deep tropics would they be more accurate in their path for the next couple of days then? TIA

[tolakram]

The central Atlantic loop provides a good big picture of what's going on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

I'm always interested in seeing the overall cloud pattern as an indication of what might be happening.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Needs to speed up to prevent the easterly shear from effecting..