CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[destruction92]

The UKMET (which is very reliable) shows a head on approach to Puerto Rico. Luis, watch out!

[JTD]

It's not moving WSW no:

It's:

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Whose favor? Hurricane Allen is the farthest left track...it is an outlier. The Southeast coast is in the middle of the range of error.

Western Gulf and the U.S. in general. Most ended up being fish. But obviously this could very well be an "outlier." I personally believe that past weather records can give clues to todays potential crisis'.

"Western Gulf and the U.S." seems to mean just about anywhere along the U.S. coastline with emphasis on Tx. I fail to follow your drift. This system could very well go to Bermuda or Panama...The odds favor it being a fish...I don't see where your reasoning is in repeatedly calling for a "western gulf" or Allen-like scenario.

I think it's okay to speculate as long as you give some reasoning instead of gut feelings.

I don't think you are correctly understanding weatherguru's posts. He is saying that the odds are in favor of the U.S. and western Gulf..which means that he thinks there is a better chance that the storm does NOT go there.

[Patrick99]

The current model runs and NHC forecast seem to want to give it some sort of an encounter with Hispaniola, which would be to the extreme detriment of this system. I wouldn't worry about anything yet.

[gatorcane]

Recall the GFS was pegging FL on several runs a few days ago, specifically South Florida...I am leaning more towards South Florida with this thing (just a hunch)...

[cheezyWXguy]

It's not moving WSW no:

It's:

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

In the forecast discussion they say it maybe moving slightly south of due west.

[EyELeSs1]

it's was said to be moving @ 265deg which is just south of west

[Extremecane]

CMC is takig the north track now

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

Convection is holding.

[storms in NC]

If you look now it is not doing very well. it is sick looking to me. the low is out from under the clouds now in the open. It is just going to fast. it can't keep up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

If you look you can see it is not going South.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Up the east coast... North Carolina

Scorpion - where did you get that?? If you are kidding could you add the disclaimer - that could scare the beegeebies out of someone if they don't know better!

ok - I see where they have in the title the Carolinas - isn't that a little early to be saying that? Just my opinion. And here is a graphic of what the spaghetti models show - none of them show that either - are you talking longer range models? Sorry, this is just the way I feel. S2K will have to decide if they don't mind having it like this.

He was talkign about the 12z GFS it makes ladfall in Hattaras..Thats all..

[gtsmith]

"The speculation is getting exhausting for me." <-- if it's too much, then stop reading...seems pretty simple to me.

[Scorpion]

CMC has it plowing right through a pretty strong ridge....

[Derek Ortt]

CMC has this not even making 60W? Is there a mystery trough or something?

[DESTRUCTION5]

CMC has this not even making 60W? Is there a mystery trough or something?

GFDL doing Similar..I can't figure it out..

[EyELeSs1]

GFDL now taking it near guadeloupe as a CAT 4 120knts??? really not what i want to see

does this look reasonable @ all at thispoint??

[gatorcane]

CMC has this not even making 60W? Is there a mystery trough or something?

God I hope so...we need to send this one fishing....

[BensonTCwatcher]

I doubt the plowing through the ridge scenario. Matter of fact only Frederic 1979, Dog 1951, and Dennis 1981 did not do the EC thing and or re-curve. This is in the set of storms that passed within 100NM of TD-04 in August. Statistically this system should gain lattitude near the islands and most likely re-curve. But I guess that's why we need Mets for the "nonstatistical" events

[Extremeweatherguy]

Allen didn't recurve or hit the EC either.

[gatorcane]

Folks CMC and some other model now want to take it out to sea...before reaching 60W...

hopefully this verifies and send this one fishing..