CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[destruction92]

The slower forward speed early in the run seems dubious..and opens the door for TD4 to get picked up by the trough (in the model)...although the thing going right between 2 building 594DM ridges seems just as dubious later in the fcst period.

The GFS did this 2 days ago as well...then the next run was into Mexico.

Way....way...way too early to tell which of the islands gets to deal with what will probably be a significant hurricane in 5 days.

MW

Nice to see you back in the forum! When will you start making forecasts, Mr. Watkins?

I usually take Derek Ortt's words seriously...I remember him stating yesterday how he despises using the GFS for long range forecasting...instead, he relies more heavily on GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET. Does anyone have the model runs for GFDL, NOGAPS, and/or UKMET?
All I have is this page: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif
I keep pressing "refresh" to no avail!

[CronkPSU]

You're not the only one - (well not me, I don't drink) - we just broke our Katrina record for users online.

In total there are 440 users online :: 129 registered, 12 hidden and 299 guests
Most users ever online was 440 on Mon Aug 13, 2007 12:50 pm

WOW! I knew we'd break it but I thought it would be mid-week. This is at least 4 days from any land.

I am pretty sure that record is just from the last couple months when they changed servers...

[Steve]

>>Please explain.

Already have in the last 3 model threads. This season (as of the last 2 weeks I've been watching), the teleconnections between the WPAC and downstream in the west Atlantic have been money. Joint Typhoon Warning Center/Navy has a ridge across the WPAC nudging Sepat from Taiwan into the mainland of the People's Repubilc of China. If this verifies, there's a 7-10 day lag on the Atlantic side. Unless TD #4 hits prior to that (e.g. while some type of weakness is present), there should be a 500mb ridge poking into the SE US. If TD #4 is a fast mover, then it might not matter. But there's a nice ridge below the trough coming through Japan (looks transient) as Sepat follows the ridge underneath.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html

Teleconnections are no better than models, but rest assured that they do hit from time to time and can provide pretty good clues. For instance, last weekend we noticed a trough lifting out which would have meant something minor or inconclusive this past Friday. And yeah, there was a shallow trough (with a semi-wide axis) already lifting out from the horse latitudes.

Hey, just something to throw in with the long-range models as it's a week/week-and-a-half teleconnection.

Steve

[vacanechaser]

Right now it's mostly just for fun, I don't think anybody is taking thses long range forecasts seriously.

why wouldn't we be talking about long range models in the global model thread...did I miss something?

Jesse and everyone, I wanted to clarify my position. I was joking. These threads are good for analyses. I think these threads are good to monitor trends and the upper-air pattern. I was just pointing at the number of people posting in this forum. I could barely post my thoughts!

no problem.. i hoped you were... that why i gave you the lol



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[BensonTCwatcher]

There have been many many storms that generally have taken this track and been dependent on 1, Height of the storm 2. Forward speed, and #. the sub-tropical ridge/Bermuda High. Classic scenario for this part of the season. I'd say just as likely to recurve as pose a GOM threat at this stage, however. The ridging scenarios of the models (however variable) looked at against the upper air maps seem plausible To me ( the untrained) the indication of a slight bias toward this storm not taking the track across the islands holds up. That is based on the strength of the ridging this year in the pattern. Unlike the prevoius 3 years or so, we are not seeing the troughing over the EC this year. Hot dry summer..many times fortells an EC theat.

[storms in NC]

Can we stop these long-range model threads? I agree with the other posters - we should wait for a few days. It would reduce the traffic by 90 percent. Good Lord, I do not want to see the numbers on this forum when we receive our first hurricane.

Right now it's mostly just for fun, I don't think anybody is taking thses long range forecasts seriously.

Very true. It is for fun for me. I just had surgery and can't do much right now but have a good laugh in some of these post. But we do need to watch the Islands. I hope the best for them.

[punkyg]

I hope td4 becomes tropical storm erin and the GOM systems will become Dean, because the GOM system is developing quicker then td4 and Dean is a terrible name sorry if i offend any Dean users.

[weatherguru18]

I'm surprised America's "Hurricane Authority" (CNN) isn't all over this. Local media here in Houston say "probably a caribbean and gulf system." However they have also said it is highly uncertain.

[punkyg]

I'm surprised America's "Hurricane Authority" (CNN) isn't all over this. Local media here in Houston say "probably a caribbean and gulf system." However they have also said it is highly uncertain.

Right now CNN is having a party so they don't care about the tropics

[Sanibel]

GFS coming in line with yesterday's EURO.

[windstorm99]

Most models now showing a WNW path...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Let's hope CNN doesn't say anything to draw any unneeded or unnecessary attention to this thing yet. Any inkling of a storm that COULD potentially enter the GOM would immediately result in increased (and unjustified) gas prices.

Hopefully the models will prog an east coast runner for a few more days. This will keep gas prices from rising.

As soon as that cone is making a beeline for points in the GOM though, expect to be topping $3 a gallon again and certainly higher if the storm actually does go GOM-bound.

[x-y-no]

WOW! I knew we'd break it but I thought it would be mid-week. This is at least 4 days from any land.

I am pretty sure that record is just from the last couple months when they changed servers...

No. The previous record of 434 was just prior to Katrina making landfall on the Gulf coast.

[tolakram]

as to the new model paths ...

that's interesting. NHC predicts a slightly south of west path for the first day or so, then a bend back north. If this does move south of west then right away most of these model runs are bunk.

If I read that correctly.

[weatherguru18]

I think the odds are in our favor...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[artist]

good to see you again with your forecasts.

[punkyg]

Most models now showing a WNW path...

So far i like the BAMD model which one do yall like?

[Praxus]

IT COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_300l.gif

It indicates an intense landfall on Cape May, NJ.

What a graphic; sure hope it doesn't play out.

Good for shock value for the coworkers here in Toronto though

[fci]

Shows how there is no use in even looking at models this far out!!!!!!!!!!!

Nah!

They provide entertainment to the Hurricane Junkies who need something to talk about and agrue about.

Integral part of the game.
Which is a "game" until a system decides where it REALLY is going.

And then the "fun" stops........................

[HURAKAN]

As the old burst moves westward, new burst appears to be developing.