Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[HurricaneRobert]

The eye doesn't look too bad. Every time it's wobbled it started snapping back into shape.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Static image of 8/13 0Z early cycle and 8/12 18Z late cycle models:

[MGC]

Flossie is still looking good on the Sat loop this evening. Southerly shear is becoming evident. Flossie should start to weaken as the shear and cooler SST have their way. Looks like Flossie is behaving as the forecasters have predicted and should pass south of the big island. Should provide some excellent surf.....MGC

[HurricaneRobert]

That eye is really round again.

[clfenwi]

13/0600 UTC 14.2N 147.6W T6.0/6.0 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific Ocean

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0610 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 147.5W AT 13/0530 UTC BASED ON
1 KM VISIBLE AND 4 KM IR IMAGERY AND ANIMATION FROM GOES-11.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM ONE-MINUTE MEAN
WIND SPEED 102 KT. MOVEMENT TOWARD 284.0 DEGREES AT 12.4 KT OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS.

T4.5/5.5/W1.0/24 HOURS

REMARKS...EYE WITH EIR BD CURVE WMG SHADE SURROUNDED BY EIR BD CURVE
MG SHADE YIELDS DT OF 4.5. MET BASED ON WEAKENING IS ALSO 4.5...AND
PT IS 5.0. FINAL T BASED ON DT. CI HELD UP AT 5.5 BY CONSTRAINTS.

$$

RYSHKO

[clfenwi]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0708 UTC MON AUG 13 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE (EP092007) 20070813 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070813  0600   070813  1800   070814  0600   070814  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N 147.6W   15.1N 150.3W   16.2N 152.8W   17.2N 155.1W
BAMD    14.2N 147.6W   15.3N 150.4W   16.6N 153.0W   18.1N 154.9W
BAMM    14.2N 147.6W   14.9N 150.4W   15.9N 153.0W   16.9N 155.0W
LBAR    14.2N 147.6W   14.9N 149.9W   15.9N 152.2W   17.0N 154.0W
SHIP       115KTS         101KTS          84KTS          67KTS
DSHP       115KTS         101KTS          84KTS          67KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070815  0600   070816  0600   070817  0600   070818  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.1N 157.3W   19.6N 161.6W   20.4N 166.3W   21.6N 171.9W
BAMD    19.5N 156.2W   22.6N 156.2W   25.5N 152.9W   27.3N 148.1W
BAMM    17.7N 156.6W   19.0N 159.1W   19.8N 161.5W   21.2N 165.2W
LBAR    18.2N 155.2W   20.4N 155.8W   23.0N 154.8W   25.8N 153.4W
SHIP        58KTS          40KTS          25KTS           0KTS
DSHP        58KTS          40KTS          25KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.2N LONCUR = 147.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  13.7N LONM12 = 145.2W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 = 143.0W
WNDCUR =  115KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =  115KT
CENPRS =  959MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =   70NM RD34SW =   70NM RD34NW =  90NM

[Chacor]

09Z advisory is out and has Flossie 90 miles south of South Point as a 90-knot hurricane.

[Chacor]

WTPA32 PHFO 130904
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 12 2007

..DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 148.2 WEST OR ABOUT
585 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 795 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

EVERYONE IN HAWAII IS URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE BULLETINS AS
THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MONDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...14.4 N...148.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Chacor]

767
WTPA42 PHFO 130917
TCDCP2

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 12 2007

CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR FLOSSIE ARE 6.0 FROM SAB
AND JTWC...AND 5.5 FROM HFO. THE 0600 UTC ADT ESTIMATE IS 5.9.
THEREFORE...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOR THIS HURRICANE WILL BE
MAINTAINED AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
REMAINS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...AND THE APPROXIMATELY 20 NM DIAMETER EYE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL DEFINED EYEWALL.

THE LATEST MOVEMENT OF FLOSSIE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT. ALL
OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 36 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...THERE IS A WIDER SPREAD IN THE TRACK
FORECASTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 96 HOURS. THE 120 HOUR POSITION WAS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE IMPACT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO FEEL WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RECENT RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THIS SHEAR MAY BE LESS THAN WAS EXPECTED IN THE RUNS MADE 24 HOURS
AGO. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FLOSSIE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

THE CURRENT TRACK...INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECAST MAY REQUIRE
WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS MONDAY MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 14.4N 148.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 15.1N 149.9W 110 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 16.0N 152.1W 105 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 16.8N 154.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 17.6N 156.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 19.1N 159.8W 75 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 20.5N 163.7W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/0600Z 21.8N 168.4W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Derek Ortt]

this flat out refuses to weaken and now there does not appear to be any significant shear prior to reaching Hawaii

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its taking off big time again. Cimss t shows 117 knots. Gfdl brother shows a hit on the big island.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Reds are wraping around the eye. The recon is going to check it out.

[Chacor]

Plane is currently en route, fix time is 1800Z. There'll be one more advisory before the fix time... and the storm looks good - starting to look more annular...

[HURAKAN]

"Fierce Flossie"

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Static image of 8/13 6Z early cycle and 0Z late cycle models:

[Normandy]

Whats the mpi along Flossie's track for the next 3 days?

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

the MPI will start to increase as it moves to the WNW as the waters warm

[Normandy]

Could this affect Hawaii as a major then?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like it will miss Hawaii by 90 miles south of the big island.