Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[miamicanes177]

SSD Position/intensity page I mentioned, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html, is operation, just IGNORING 90L.

So you think its a test?

We're not going through that again. geeeezzzz

[wxmann_91]

Please, please don't put too much stock in the QPF . . . especially in data-sparse areas like this . . . though you probably know that.

Of course things will be far more favorable near land and it probably will have an easier time strengthening in the environment 4-5 days in front of it. Like I posted in the previous thread, the 00z HWRF took it to 948/110kts at 126hours, and there was a 12mb drop in the last 12 hours of that run. Unfortunately, the NCEP website doesn't post invest runs of the GHM or HWRF, so I haven't seen the 12z run. I would assume it is similar to its 00z run as it's based off the GFS and there isn't much change between the 00z and 12z GFS . . . but I digress. Point is, most of the models do agree with a later intensification of the storm, and that seems to be the most logical choice right now.

Did you see my <weenietalk></weenietalk> tags?

BTW weatherman21, please check your PM.

[hurricanefloyd5]

if this formed this will be at lease a 30kts TD#4 I bet you!!!!!!!!!

[cpdaman]

looks like mod to high mid level easterly wind shear thru mon. nite

then tuesday we have depression that is my pred. and i'm sticking to it.

[RL3AO]

Technically it is probably a depression according to NHC standards, but it won't be called a depression at 5pm because it has an exposed circulation.

[Blown Away]

Looking at the infrared, I can see some nice deep reds near what I think is the LLC coming into view. If those deep reds are around the LLC, 90L is a good looking Invest.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[chadtm80]

Looking at the infrared, I can see some nice deep reds near what I think is the LLC coming into view. If those deep reds are around the LLC, 90L is a good looking Invest.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Actually blow_away the LLC is pretty far east of the convection you are seeing there

[Scorpion]

Looking at the infrared, I can see some nice deep reds near what I think is the LLC coming into view. If those deep reds are around the LLC, 90L is a good looking Invest.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

No, it is quite disorganized. The LLC is exposed.

[bvigal]

The LLC is east of convection? Just on a lark I took a look at SAL over last few hours, and it looks like it's increased near 90L. Maybe he's sucking in some dust.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html
click back on "-3hrs" to go back through the day

I know I'll get flamed for this, but "Hey, 90L... choke on dust and DIE!!!"

[chadtm80]

The LLC is east of convection? Just on a lark I took a look at SAL over last few hours, and it looks like it's increased near 90L. Maybe he's sucking in some dust.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html
click back on "-3hrs" to go back through the day

I know I'll get flamed for this, but "Hey, 90L... choke on dust and DIE!!!"

Yes.. Exposed and to the east

[Steve]

Updated Graphics for Tropical Storm Sepat out to the 17th show a mild curve toward Taiwan (= ridging in the SE US/SW Atlantic if it verifies). I'm super confident of that. The 17th is this Friday.

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0907.gif

[RL3AO]

^^^ wrong thread

[Blown Away]

Looking at the infrared, I can see some nice deep reds near what I think is the LLC coming into view. If those deep reds are around the LLC, 90L is a good looking Invest.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

No, it is quite disorganized. The LLC is exposed.

The LLC has got to be near 12N/27W, and that's where those deep reds are. I do recognize they are on the W side of the LLC and the E side is exposed. It's a good sign to see convection building. Not as bad as we may think, IMO.

[sevenleft]

^^^ wrong thread

No, you missed the point of the post.

[bvigal]

^^^ wrong thread

No RL3AO, not the wrong thread... he's talking about ridging that effects this storm... "(= ridging in the SE US/SW Atlantic "

[RL3AO]

ah...I just read the first part.

[ConvergenceZone]

The LLC is east of convection? Just on a lark I took a look at SAL over last few hours, and it looks like it's increased near 90L. Maybe he's sucking in some dust.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html
click back on "-3hrs" to go back through the day

I know I'll get flamed for this, but "Hey, 90L... choke on dust and DIE!!!"

hehe, you may get your wish... . The posts seem to be slowing down quite a bit now(due to frustration)... I still think that IF it holds together, perhaps a depression by Wednesday or Thursday.

Been tracking Flossie to keep me busy....

[WindRunner]

Please, please don't put too much stock in the QPF . . . especially in data-sparse areas like this . . . though you probably know that.

Of course things will be far more favorable near land and it probably will have an easier time strengthening in the environment 4-5 days in front of it. Like I posted in the previous thread, the 00z HWRF took it to 948/110kts at 126hours, and there was a 12mb drop in the last 12 hours of that run. Unfortunately, the NCEP website doesn't post invest runs of the GHM or HWRF, so I haven't seen the 12z run. I would assume it is similar to its 00z run as it's based off the GFS and there isn't much change between the 00z and 12z GFS . . . but I digress. Point is, most of the models do agree with a later intensification of the storm, and that seems to be the most logical choice right now.

Did you see my <weenietalk></weenietalk> tags?

BTW weatherman21, please check your PM.

They obviously don't work here . . .

[Steve]

No problem rl3ao. The comparison and contrast of movement in the WPAC vs. what the early run models say is part of the discussion. After watching the correlation over the last couple of weeks between the upper patterns in both basins, I think there is a strong connection this year.

We shall see. Key with Sepat is what it's doing Friday as that would be about 8-11 days prior to 90L being on the scene as far as U.S. implications. Like I said, we'll see. But it may be as important as any modeling data if there end up being some troughs (of any kind) coming through and what those mean for the upcoming WATL pattern.



Steve

[hurricanefloyd5]

According to jeff masters 90L could be a Hurricane or even a "POSSIBLE" Major !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What the computer models say
Watching the computer model runs for 90L is not for the faint of heart. All the major models except the NOGAPS develop the system into a tropical storm or hurricane that tracks westward over the Atlantic, reaching the lesser Antilles Islands as early as Thursday night, August 16. There are four possible scenarios to consider:

1) A strong trough of low pressure is forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. at that time, and this trough may deflect 90L northwards so that it misses the Lesser Antilles Islands, and then recurves harmlessly out to sea.

2) In keeping with the steering pattern we've observed since late July, the trough is expected to rapidly move onward, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in. If the trough is not strong enough to recurve 90L out to sea, the storm will be forced to the west once more and eventually hit the East Coast of the U.S. This is the solution of last night's ECMWF model.

3) 90L will be far enough south and next weekend's trough will be weak enough that 90L will plow through the Caribbean, and not be deflected north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The storm would eventually track into the Gulf of Mexico. This is the solution preferred by this morning's GFS model.

4) 90L will never develop, or will never become more than a weak tropical storm, due to unfavorable wind shear, dry air, or other factors. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model.

Of the four scenarios, I believe #2 or #3 are most likely to occur--90L will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that will affect the Caribbean and/or U.S. East Coast. Residents throughout the Caribbean and U.S. should anticipate the possibility that 90L may become a hurricane--and possibly a major hurricane--that will not recurve. If you plan on being in the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday August 16 - Sunday August 19, keep in mind there is a heightened risk of a tropical storm or hurricane during that period. Be prepared to adjust your travel plans.