Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima
Moderator: S2k Moderators
WTPA32 PHFO 120845
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 11 2007
AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.5 WEST OR ABOUT
875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1085 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES.
EVERYONE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS URGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE THIS WEEKEND.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...13.6 N...143.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 11 2007
AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.5 WEST OR ABOUT
875 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1085 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES.
EVERYONE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS URGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE THIS WEEKEND.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...13.6 N...143.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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WTPA42 PHFO 120933
TCDCP2
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 11 2007
HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. FLOSSIE HAS A VERY WARM WELL DEFINED 20 NM DIAMETER EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE SYSTEM ALSO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A REMARKABLE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE PREVIOUS INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN REVERSED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTED A SLIGHT WEAKENING...SO THE CURRENT ADVISORY SHOWED A DECREASE IN THE INITIAL MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS TO 115 KT.
THE LONG TERM MOTION OF FLOSSIE SOUTH OF THE STRONG MID-PACIFIC OCEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WOBBLES OF THE EYE THAT ARE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE THE MEAN TRACK OF FLOSSIE REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE PACKAGE RECEIVED AT CPHC HAS SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN THE SPREAD OF THE FORECAST TRACKS AS FLOSSIE APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED MUCH FARTHER TO THE LEFT NOW. AS A RESULT...THE CONSENSUS MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN NUDGED MORE TO THE LEFT. THIS PROVIDES A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THIS FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AT THE MOMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE FUTURE PATH OF FLOSSIE. THIS SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE MOST HOSTILE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO IMPLY FUTURE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE GFDL...SINCE THE TRACK HAS MOVED MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE. KEEP IN MIND THAT OUR ERRORS IN FORECASTING INTENSITY ARE STILL LARGE...ESPECIALLY AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND BEYOND.
ALL THOSE WHO ARE FOLLOWING FLOSSIE ARE URGED NOT FOCUS ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK OF THE CALM EYE. THE STRONG WINDS IN THE EYE WALL SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE EXTEND FAR BEYOND THIS LINE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH THE EYE OF FLOSSIE MAY PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...IT COULD STILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE ADVISORIES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS VERY STRONG HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 13.6N 143.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 14.0N 145.2W 110 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 14.7N 147.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 15.4N 149.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 16.2N 151.4W 90 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.6N 155.4W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.9N 159.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 20.3N 162.3W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
WTPA42 PHFO 120933
TCDCP2
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 11 2007
HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. FLOSSIE HAS A VERY WARM WELL DEFINED 20 NM DIAMETER EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE SYSTEM ALSO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A REMARKABLE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE PREVIOUS INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN REVERSED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTED A SLIGHT WEAKENING...SO THE CURRENT ADVISORY SHOWED A DECREASE IN THE INITIAL MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS TO 115 KT.
THE LONG TERM MOTION OF FLOSSIE SOUTH OF THE STRONG MID-PACIFIC OCEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THERE CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT WOBBLES OF THE EYE THAT ARE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE THE MEAN TRACK OF FLOSSIE REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE PACKAGE RECEIVED AT CPHC HAS SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN THE SPREAD OF THE FORECAST TRACKS AS FLOSSIE APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED MUCH FARTHER TO THE LEFT NOW. AS A RESULT...THE CONSENSUS MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN NUDGED MORE TO THE LEFT. THIS PROVIDES A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THIS FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AT THE MOMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE FUTURE PATH OF FLOSSIE. THIS SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE MOST HOSTILE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO IMPLY FUTURE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE GFDL...SINCE THE TRACK HAS MOVED MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE. KEEP IN MIND THAT OUR ERRORS IN FORECASTING INTENSITY ARE STILL LARGE...ESPECIALLY AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND BEYOND.
ALL THOSE WHO ARE FOLLOWING FLOSSIE ARE URGED NOT FOCUS ON THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK OF THE CALM EYE. THE STRONG WINDS IN THE EYE WALL SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE EXTEND FAR BEYOND THIS LINE. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH THE EYE OF FLOSSIE MAY PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...IT COULD STILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE ADVISORIES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS VERY STRONG HURRICANE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 13.6N 143.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 14.0N 145.2W 110 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 14.7N 147.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 15.4N 149.4W 95 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 16.2N 151.4W 90 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.6N 155.4W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.9N 159.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 20.3N 162.3W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
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- Contact:
Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
Still T6.5.
TXPN40 PHFO 121205
TCSCP
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1205 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007
HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 143.9W AT 12/1130 UTC BASED ON
4 KM IR IMAGERY AND ANIMATION FROM GOES-11. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN
30 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM ONE-MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED 127 KT. MOVEMENT
TOWARD 281.3 DEGREES AT 10.0 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
T6.5/6.5/S0.0/24 HOURS
REMARKS...EYE WITH EIR BD CURVE WMG SHADE SURROUNDED BY EIR BD CURVE
B SHADE YIELDS DT OF 6.5. MET BASED ON NO CHANGE IS 6.0...AND PT
AGREES. FINAL T BASED ON DT.
$$
RYSHKO
TXPN40 PHFO 121205
TCSCP
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1205 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007
HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 143.9W AT 12/1130 UTC BASED ON
4 KM IR IMAGERY AND ANIMATION FROM GOES-11. POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN
30 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM ONE-MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED 127 KT. MOVEMENT
TOWARD 281.3 DEGREES AT 10.0 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
T6.5/6.5/S0.0/24 HOURS
REMARKS...EYE WITH EIR BD CURVE WMG SHADE SURROUNDED BY EIR BD CURVE
B SHADE YIELDS DT OF 6.5. MET BASED ON NO CHANGE IS 6.0...AND PT
AGREES. FINAL T BASED ON DT.
$$
RYSHKO
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Derek Ortt
Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
latest TMI indicates that it is more annular than eysterday. Really just the eyewall now
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miamicanes177
- Category 5
- Posts: 1131
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm
Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
I agree 100%. It certainly looks more annular now than ever. The intensity models have been so bad on this it is not even funny. Could this pass near Hawaii as a cat 2 possibly? You've done well on this storm, better than the NHC did in fact.Derek Ortt wrote:latest TMI indicates that it is more annular than eysterday. Really just the eyewall now
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Derek Ortt
Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
we have a problem in the model initialization. The models do not exactly have the upper ridge over Flossie, at least the GFS
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marcane_1973
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Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
Just curious. What is the strongest hurricane to hit the Hawaiian Islands?
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Hurricanehink
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Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
marcane_1973 wrote:Just curious. What is the strongest hurricane to hit the Hawaiian Islands?
The strongest hurricane on record to hit the Hawaiian Islands was Hurricane Iniki in 1992, with winds of Category 4 strength.
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000
WTPA22 PHFO 121440
TCMCP2
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1500 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 144.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 85SE 85SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 144.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 144.0W
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.1N 146.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 55SE 55SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.0N 148.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.8N 150.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.6N 152.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 156.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 65NE 40SE 40SW 65NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.3N 159.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.8N 163.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 144.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
They have adjusted the 96- and 120-hour forecasts up to 55 and 50 kt now.
WTPA22 PHFO 121440
TCMCP2
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1500 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 144.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 85SE 85SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 144.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 144.0W
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.1N 146.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 55SE 55SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.0N 148.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.8N 150.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.6N 152.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 156.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 65NE 40SE 40SW 65NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.3N 159.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.8N 163.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 144.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
They have adjusted the 96- and 120-hour forecasts up to 55 and 50 kt now.
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This forecast calls for a 75 kt (85 mph) hurricane just 65 miles off South Point, Hawaii.
000
WTPA32 PHFO 121445
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST SUN AUG 12 2007
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...
AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.6 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.
EVERYONE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS URGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
PLACES FLOSSIE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN A FEW DAYS...A
SMALL SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD POTENTIALLY BRING TROPICAL STORM...
OR HURRICANE...CONDITIONS TO THE BIG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY.
REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...13.7 N...144.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
000
WTPA32 PHFO 121445
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST SUN AUG 12 2007
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...
AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.6 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.
EVERYONE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS URGED TO CONTINUE MONITORING
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
PLACES FLOSSIE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN A FEW DAYS...A
SMALL SHIFT IN THE TRACK COULD POTENTIALLY BRING TROPICAL STORM...
OR HURRICANE...CONDITIONS TO THE BIG ISLAND BY LATE TUESDAY.
REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...13.7 N...144.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
Last edited by Chacor on Sun Aug 12, 2007 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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marcane_1973
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Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
Thanks for the info. I bet that was a rough ride for them. Wonder if any crazy surfers hit the those swells in the adavnce of Iniki.Hurricanehink wrote:marcane_1973 wrote:Just curious. What is the strongest hurricane to hit the Hawaiian Islands?
The strongest hurricane on record to hit the Hawaiian Islands was Hurricane Iniki in 1992, with winds of Category 4 strength.
I bet there was some insane waves especially in the North Shore area. I'm willing to bet some were 80 to 100 feet out there easily.
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996
WTPA42 PHFO 121517
TCDCP2
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST SUN AUG 12 2007
DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN
ADVANTAGE OF ITS VERY FAVORABLE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT FAR FROM ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAND MASSES. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT.
AS WAS NOTED 6 HOURS EARLIER...SHORT-TERM WOBBLES OF THE EYE ARE
CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
AVERAGE TRACK OF FLOSSIE REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WELL-DEFINED EYE AND EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF
HURRICANE FLOSSIE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN EXTREMELY
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVERNIGHT. DURING A RECENT COORDINATION CALL WITH
THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT JTWC...IT WAS POINTED OUT THAT AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG LONGITUDE 137W.
THIS TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS NORTH NORTHEAST OF FLOSSIE APPEARS TO BE
PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE POSITIVE INFLUENCE OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG WITH THE WARM
TROPICAL OCEAN APPEAR TO BE MAINTAINING FLOSSIE'S INTENSITY. THE
UW/CIMMS ADT ESTIMATE FOR 1130 UTC WAS 6.0. THE MOST RECENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 6.0 FROM JTWC AND 6.5 FROM SAB AND
HFO SUGGESTED THAT FLOSSIE HAS MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KT.
THE LATEST MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MORE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED IN THE 72 TO 120 HOUR FORECAST TIME FRAME THAN THE RUNS
MADE 12 HOURS AGO. NOGAPS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAJOR MODEL BRINGING
FLOSSIE ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WITH THE GFDL RUN BRINGING THE
SYSTEM CLOSE TO SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND AFTER 72 HOURS.
THEREFORE...THE CONSENSUS MODELS WERE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK.
ONCE AGAIN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AT
THE MOMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FUTURE PATH OF FLOSSIE. THIS SHEAR APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST HOSTILE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. SLIGHTLY COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK ALSO IMPLY FUTURE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE GFDL
GUIDANCE. KEEP IN MIND THAT OUR ERRORS IN FORECASTING INTENSITY ARE
STILL LARGE...ESPECIALLY AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND BEYOND.
THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST MAY REQUIRE WATCHES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 13.7N 144.6W 120 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 14.1N 146.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 15.0N 148.5W 105 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 15.8N 150.6W 100 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.6N 152.7W 95 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 156.1W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 19.3N 159.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 20.8N 163.9W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
WTPA42 PHFO 121517
TCDCP2
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST SUN AUG 12 2007
DANGEROUS HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN
ADVANTAGE OF ITS VERY FAVORABLE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT FAR FROM ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAND MASSES. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT.
AS WAS NOTED 6 HOURS EARLIER...SHORT-TERM WOBBLES OF THE EYE ARE
CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
AVERAGE TRACK OF FLOSSIE REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WELL-DEFINED EYE AND EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF
HURRICANE FLOSSIE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN EXTREMELY
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVERNIGHT. DURING A RECENT COORDINATION CALL WITH
THE TYPHOON DUTY OFFICER AT JTWC...IT WAS POINTED OUT THAT AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG LONGITUDE 137W.
THIS TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS NORTH NORTHEAST OF FLOSSIE APPEARS TO BE
PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE POSITIVE INFLUENCE OF
THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG WITH THE WARM
TROPICAL OCEAN APPEAR TO BE MAINTAINING FLOSSIE'S INTENSITY. THE
UW/CIMMS ADT ESTIMATE FOR 1130 UTC WAS 6.0. THE MOST RECENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 6.0 FROM JTWC AND 6.5 FROM SAB AND
HFO SUGGESTED THAT FLOSSIE HAS MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 120 KT.
THE LATEST MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE MORE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED IN THE 72 TO 120 HOUR FORECAST TIME FRAME THAN THE RUNS
MADE 12 HOURS AGO. NOGAPS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAJOR MODEL BRINGING
FLOSSIE ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WITH THE GFDL RUN BRINGING THE
SYSTEM CLOSE TO SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND AFTER 72 HOURS.
THEREFORE...THE CONSENSUS MODELS WERE FOLLOWED CLOSELY IN THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK.
ONCE AGAIN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AT
THE MOMENT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FUTURE PATH OF FLOSSIE. THIS SHEAR APPEARS TO
BE THE MOST HOSTILE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. SLIGHTLY COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK ALSO IMPLY FUTURE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE GFDL
GUIDANCE. KEEP IN MIND THAT OUR ERRORS IN FORECASTING INTENSITY ARE
STILL LARGE...ESPECIALLY AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND BEYOND.
THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST MAY REQUIRE WATCHES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 13.7N 144.6W 120 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 14.1N 146.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 15.0N 148.5W 105 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 15.8N 150.6W 100 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.6N 152.7W 95 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 156.1W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 19.3N 159.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 20.8N 163.9W 50 KT
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
The aeroplane has just left for Flossie.
URPN15 KNHC 121558
AF301 0109E FLOSSIE HDOB 02 20070812
153830 3816N 12155W 9961 00136 0124 +122 +102 237025 028 999 999 03
153930 3814N 12158W 9618 00450 0138 +168 +072 279014 023 999 999 03
154030 3811N 12201W 9078 00960 0143 +192 -173 279009 015 999 999 03
154130 3809N 12204W 8351 01678 0139 +164 -047 226010 010 999 999 03
154230 3812N 12206W 7806 02248 0144 +124 -093 198005 010 999 999 03
154330 3814N 12208W 7293 02741 0051 +098 -195 224013 013 999 999 03
154430 3817N 12211W 6946 02917 9784 +082 -257 211015 015 999 999 03
154530 3820N 12214W 6606 03456 9914 +066 -315 207022 023 999 999 03
154630 3822N 12217W 6316 03979 0081 +048 -331 205026 027 999 999 03
154730 3822N 12222W 6027 04263 9976 +022 -317 209027 028 999 999 03
154830 3822N 12226W 5772 04112 9405 +014 -301 211028 029 999 999 03
154930 3821N 12229W 5565 04857 9897 -005 -303 214030 030 999 999 03
155030 3818N 12232W 5359 05290 0231 -031 -313 212032 033 999 999 03
155130 3816N 12235W 5174 05572 0251 -051 -321 209033 033 999 999 03
155230 3813N 12237W 5019 05809 0264 -073 -329 209032 033 999 999 03
155330 3811N 12240W 4869 06048 0279 -089 -341 207032 032 999 999 03
155430 3808N 12243W 4723 06288 0296 -107 -347 216032 032 999 999 03
155530 3806N 12246W 4587 06518 0314 -123 -355 219034 034 999 999 03
155630 3803N 12249W 4468 06716 0321 -139 -355 217034 035 999 999 03
155730 3800N 12251W 4356 06907 0330 -153 -367 213035 036 999 999 03
URPN15 KNHC 121558
AF301 0109E FLOSSIE HDOB 02 20070812
153830 3816N 12155W 9961 00136 0124 +122 +102 237025 028 999 999 03
153930 3814N 12158W 9618 00450 0138 +168 +072 279014 023 999 999 03
154030 3811N 12201W 9078 00960 0143 +192 -173 279009 015 999 999 03
154130 3809N 12204W 8351 01678 0139 +164 -047 226010 010 999 999 03
154230 3812N 12206W 7806 02248 0144 +124 -093 198005 010 999 999 03
154330 3814N 12208W 7293 02741 0051 +098 -195 224013 013 999 999 03
154430 3817N 12211W 6946 02917 9784 +082 -257 211015 015 999 999 03
154530 3820N 12214W 6606 03456 9914 +066 -315 207022 023 999 999 03
154630 3822N 12217W 6316 03979 0081 +048 -331 205026 027 999 999 03
154730 3822N 12222W 6027 04263 9976 +022 -317 209027 028 999 999 03
154830 3822N 12226W 5772 04112 9405 +014 -301 211028 029 999 999 03
154930 3821N 12229W 5565 04857 9897 -005 -303 214030 030 999 999 03
155030 3818N 12232W 5359 05290 0231 -031 -313 212032 033 999 999 03
155130 3816N 12235W 5174 05572 0251 -051 -321 209033 033 999 999 03
155230 3813N 12237W 5019 05809 0264 -073 -329 209032 033 999 999 03
155330 3811N 12240W 4869 06048 0279 -089 -341 207032 032 999 999 03
155430 3808N 12243W 4723 06288 0296 -107 -347 216032 032 999 999 03
155530 3806N 12246W 4587 06518 0314 -123 -355 219034 034 999 999 03
155630 3803N 12249W 4468 06716 0321 -139 -355 217034 035 999 999 03
155730 3800N 12251W 4356 06907 0330 -153 -367 213035 036 999 999 03
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Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
I notice hurricanes in the EPAC and CPAC are small, like Flossie, which is about the size of Hurricane Charley in 2004.
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Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
TXPN40 PHFO 121819
TCSCP
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1815 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007
HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 145.0W AT 12/1730 UTC BASED ON
1 KM VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ANIMATION FROM GOES-11. POSITION ACCURATE
WITHIN 30 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM ONE-MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED 127 KT.
MOVEMENT TOWARD 282 DEGREES AT 12 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
T5.5/6.5/W1.0/24 HOURS
REMARKS...EYE WITH EIR BD CURVE OW SHADE SURROUNDED BY MG SHADE
YIELDS DT OF 4.5. WEAKENING TREND YIELDS MET OF 5.0...AND PT AGREES.
ADT GIVES 5.7. FINAL T BASED ON DT AND DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.
$$
MORRISON
TCSCP
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1815 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007
HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 145.0W AT 12/1730 UTC BASED ON
1 KM VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ANIMATION FROM GOES-11. POSITION ACCURATE
WITHIN 30 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM ONE-MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED 127 KT.
MOVEMENT TOWARD 282 DEGREES AT 12 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
T5.5/6.5/W1.0/24 HOURS
REMARKS...EYE WITH EIR BD CURVE OW SHADE SURROUNDED BY MG SHADE
YIELDS DT OF 4.5. WEAKENING TREND YIELDS MET OF 5.0...AND PT AGREES.
ADT GIVES 5.7. FINAL T BASED ON DT AND DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.
$$
MORRISON
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hurricanefloyd5
- Category 5
- Posts: 1659
- Age: 44
- Joined: Sun May 02, 2004 10:53 am
- Location: Spartanburg
- Contact:
Re: Major Hurricane Flossie in CPAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN AUG 12 2007
.SYNOPSIS...FLOSSIE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL CLOUD AND RAINFALL
PATTERN...WITH ISLAND MOISTURE PLUMES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM PHTO/PHLI SHOW INVERSIONS HAVE DROPPED A BIT SINCE
00Z...HOWEVER 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH WILL REBOUND AND HOLD
PRETTY STEADY THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST RUNS ALSO SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER DIMINISHING A BIT FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY AHEAD OF FLOSSIE.
FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS INCREASING COOLER WATER...AND
WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AS SHE APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT A WEAKENING TREND. THE 11 PM
HST FORECAST HAS FLOSSIE PASSING 90 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE WILL BE
ONCE IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. FOR MORE DETAILS...
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER...ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42
PHFO. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM HST.
WHILE FLOSSIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE UNTIL
MID-WEEK...WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL HER INFLUENCES BY MONDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF OPEN CELL CUMULUS CLOUDS UPSTREAM...
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO REACH US BY MONDAY IN THE STRENGTHENING TRADE
WIND FLOW. THE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE ELONGATING AND SPREADING OUT
MORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER..AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS FLOSSIE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. THIS TIGHT GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WINDIER CHANNELS. WITH THE 11 PM FORECAST
TRACK AND WIND RADII...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS FLOSSIE MOVES WEST OF THE STATE...WE WILL RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE PACIFIC HIGH
WILL BE RATHER ELONGATED BETWEEN 30N/40N DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...AND WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS AT MODERATE
LEVELS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BRAVENDER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN AUG 12 2007
.SYNOPSIS...FLOSSIE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS
MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT WE
HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL CLOUD AND RAINFALL
PATTERN...WITH ISLAND MOISTURE PLUMES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM PHTO/PHLI SHOW INVERSIONS HAVE DROPPED A BIT SINCE
00Z...HOWEVER 00Z/06Z GFS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH WILL REBOUND AND HOLD
PRETTY STEADY THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST RUNS ALSO SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER DIMINISHING A BIT FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY AHEAD OF FLOSSIE.
FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS INCREASING COOLER WATER...AND
WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AS SHE APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT A WEAKENING TREND. THE 11 PM
HST FORECAST HAS FLOSSIE PASSING 90 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE WILL BE
ONCE IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MORE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. FOR MORE DETAILS...
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSION FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER...ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42
PHFO. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM HST.
WHILE FLOSSIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE UNTIL
MID-WEEK...WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL HER INFLUENCES BY MONDAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF OPEN CELL CUMULUS CLOUDS UPSTREAM...
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO REACH US BY MONDAY IN THE STRENGTHENING TRADE
WIND FLOW. THE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE ELONGATING AND SPREADING OUT
MORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER..AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...THE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS FLOSSIE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. THIS TIGHT GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WINDIER CHANNELS. WITH THE 11 PM FORECAST
TRACK AND WIND RADII...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS FLOSSIE MOVES WEST OF THE STATE...WE WILL RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE PACIFIC HIGH
WILL BE RATHER ELONGATED BETWEEN 30N/40N DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...AND WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS AT MODERATE
LEVELS.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BRAVENDER
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