Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[Derek Ortt]

recon now scheduled to begin tomorrow

[P.K.]

FKPA22 PHFO 112051
TCAPA2
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
2100 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070811/2100Z
TCAC: PHFO
TC: FLOSSIE
NR: 013
PSN: N1300 W14106
MOV: W 10KT
C: 0949HPA
MAX WIND: 115KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 120000 N1312 W14151
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 115KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 120600 N1324 W14236
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 115KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 121200 N1339 W14342
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 110KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 121800 N1354 W14448
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 105KT
NXT MSG: 20070812/0300Z

[HURAKAN]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 11 2007

...HURRICANE FLOSSIE ENTERS THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1035 MILES...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 1245 MILES... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...13.0 N...141.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 11 2007

FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS AND A SOLID EYEWALL AROUND A 17 NM EYE AS SEEN IN GOES IMAGERY. THE 1448 UTC SSM/I PASS ALSO INDICATED A SINGLE CLOSED EYEWALL. OBJECTIVE DVORAK SHOWED 117 KT AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO AND SAB CAME UP WITH 115 KT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 115 KT.

THE CURRENT MOVEMENT REMAINS TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 KT AS FLOSSIE TRACKS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCES...AND THE UNCERTAINTY...INCREASE BEYOND DAY 2. NOGAPS...HWRF...GFDL AND BAM-DEEP ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A PASSAGE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE JAPANESE SPECTRAL MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE OUTCOME WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER DAY 2 AND THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TAKE A SIGNIFICANT TOLL ON FLOSSIE...THE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL BE MORE LIKELY. IF FLOSSIE CAN OVERCOME THESE FACTORS...THE TRACK WILL FAVOR A CLOSER APPROACH TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE FORECAST TRACK GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE...WITH A NORTHWARD NUDGE CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH FLOSSIE CROSSING THE 26.5C ISOTHERM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DAY 2 ONCE FLOSSIE CROSSES 150W. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY WEAKENING WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER DAY 3.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A CLOSER APPROACH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 13.0N 141.1W 115 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 13.4N 142.6W 115 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 13.9N 144.8W 105 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 14.5N 147.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 15.2N 149.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 16.7N 153.6W 65 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 18.1N 157.4W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 160.4W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[JonathanBelles]

WOW recon for a CPAC storm. Wouldnt that be a short flight in the storm because of distance?

[jaxfladude]

WOW recon for a CPAC storm. Wouldnt that be a short flight in the storm because of distance?

I will say that they will find a weakening storm...

[Coredesat]

recon now scheduled to begin tomorrow

Indeed:

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURICANNE FLOSSIE FLIGHT ONE
RESOURCES PERMITTING MISSION ADDED
A. 13/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0109C FLOSSIE
C. 12/1600Z
D. 13.7N AND 146.0W
E. 12/2000Z TO 13/0100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON
HURRICANE FLOSSIE NEAR 14.3N 149.0W AT 13/1800Z
WVW

[RL3AO]

WOW recon for a CPAC storm. Wouldnt that be a short flight in the storm because of distance?

Plane will take off from Hawaii.

[pojo]

WOW recon for a CPAC storm. Wouldnt that be a short flight in the storm because of distance?

Plane will take off from Hawaii.

One will. The other will take off from Travis AFB, CA and investigate Flossie on its way over to Hawaii.

[pojo]

WOW recon for a CPAC storm. Wouldnt that be a short flight in the storm because of distance?

not necessarily. Please see my other post.

[HurricaneRobert]

I think the eye looks better. It seemed a bit wobbly earlier today, and the track keeps pushing a little bit northward. The SST around Hawaii are normal, but are they still warm enough SE of the big island to keep this thing going?

[MGC]

It would be something if Flossie road right up the island chain. I lived in Pearl City for a while back in the 80's. Loved it there. Flash flooding is a major problem in the islands. I hope the GFDL is right and Flossie passes east of the islands.....MGC

[MiamiensisWx]

Open your eye for the camera!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html

It looks like it may encounter some low-level stability issues, and there is some traces of low to mid-level shear (per visibles). Note the meager convection on the outer periphery of the storm (circulation) - this could indicate the commence of lower oceanic heat content and an unfavorable thermodynamic upper-air environment. I would expect a shallower structure when it makes its closest approach to Hawaii. Regardless, colder convection is reforming around the eyewall, so it could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours. Additionally, I have been observing a WNW movement, so it may come closer to Hawaii before the low-level steering currents nudge it westward south of the island chain (assuming a weakening trend occurs).

I would closely monitor Flossie if I lived in Hawaii - you are located within the cone!

[HurricaneRobert]

hwrf has Flossie passing south of the big island as a weak TS. gfdl has a strong TS going north of it. So far gfdl has been more accurate, except for a poleward bias in the track

[Derek Ortt]

CPHC fix now T6.5/6.5

[Cyclenall]

I think it's now 120 knots. That eye is cleared out .

[Ptarmigan]

I think Flossie will peak at 140 mph.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say 125 knots and a pressure of 941mb right now.

[Cyclenall]

I'd say 125 knots and a pressure of 941mb right now.

I agree, I think 125 knots now.

[Coredesat]

T6.5 from all agencies would suggest 125-130 kt:

CPHC:

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0010 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007

Hurricane Flossie located near 13.2°N 141.6°W at 11/2330 UTC based on 1 km resolution visible imagery and animation from goes-11. Position accurate within 15 nm. Estimated maximum one minute mean wind speed 127 kt. Movement towards 290 degrees at 11 kt over the past 6 hours.

T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24 hours

Remarks: Eye has warmed giving a wmg eye temperature with a black surrounding temperature. DT is a 6.5. MET and Pat yield 6.0. Adt yields 6.2. Final T based on DT\.
$$
Morrison.

SAB:

12/0000 UTC 13.2N 141.7W T6.5/6.5 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific Ocean