Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[CrazyC83]

Daniel developed and strengthened much farther to the east than Flossie (it was a weakening Cat 2 when it hit 140W).

[Chacor]

Daniel came closer than that... close enough to put the islands under a TS warning. Same with Jimena in 2003

There weren't any TC warnings associated with Daniel.

"By early on 25 July, the deep convection with Daniel had greatly diminished, leaving behind only an exposed LLCC. Daniel was downgraded to tropical storm status at 0600 UTC 25 July near 16.2N 142.7W, then to tropical depression status at 0000 UTC 26 July near 16.2N 143.1W. The last CPHC bulletin was issued at 2100 UTC 26 July, with Daniel classified as a dissipating remnant low with maximum winds of only 30 kt about 800 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii."

[Derek Ortt]

Wrong Daniel. You are referencing Daniel 1994, not Daniel 2000

Here is an advisory with TS warnings for Daniel 2000
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2000/pu ... 0.031.html

[Chacor]

Wrong Daniel. You are referencing Daniel 1994, not Daniel 2000

Here is an advisory with TS warnings for Daniel 2000
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2000/pu ... 0.031.html

Uh... I was talking about Daniel 2006. The image was Advisory 30 from the NHC on Daniel last year.

[Derek Ortt]

and I also had the wrong Daniel... every Daniel tends to head toward the CPAC it seems

[cyclonic chronic]

because of its near annular status, will intensity have less to do with sst's and vertical shear? if so, this could be tricky forecasting what does or does not make it to Hi. ive read that annular canes throw most of the intensity models off and flossie looks pretty annular to me!!

[Derek Ortt]

shera would still affect it, but SSTs ... not exactly. Epsilon was annular in every way except for its intensity in 2005 over 21C SST... and it lasted until it was sheared apart

[Chacor]

15Z forecast still goes south of Big Island... but only just.

[Derek Ortt]

and they seem to be following SHIPS... whcih does NOT have the annular nature built into the model yet. It is only noted at the bottom

[AnnularCane]

Wow, look at Flossie! And to think I thought she wouldn't get very strong. I guess you never really know.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0#contents

the NHC probabilities have a decent chance at TS winds for the islands

[Hurricanehink]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 111500
TCDEP4
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2007

FLOSSIE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH A MORE
SYMMETRIC AND SOLID RING OF EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS NEAR -75C AROUND
12Z. ACCORDINGLY...SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT THAT TIME WERE A CONSENSUS T6.0 OR 115 KT...AND THAT
IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. AN OVERPASS BY AMSR-E AT 1050Z REVEALS A
SINGLE EYEWALL AND NO APPARENT SIGNS OF ANY IMPENDING INNER CORE
STRUCTURAL CHANGES. SINCE 12Z THE INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
REACHED AN INTENSITY PLATEAU. THE UNDERLYING SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE COOLER FROM THIS
POINT FORWARD...WHILE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WIND SHEAR WILL
BEGIN INCREASING IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR FLOSSIE TO START GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER TODAY...WITH
THE PACE OF DECLINE PICKING UP WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASES ON DAY 3.
THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE MODELS. EXCEPT FOR THE FSSE...ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FORECASTS FLOSSIE TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BEYOND 72
HOURS.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES DUE WESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
SLIGHTLY WOBBLY 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. WE CAN SAY FOR SURE NOW
THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS CROSSED 140 DEGREES WEST INTO
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY AND REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS LARGE...
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK HINGES LARGELY ON JUST HOW STRONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO
THE NORTH OF FLOSSIE IN A FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER HAWAII TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A TRACK THAT BENDS EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HOLD ONTO ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE
CENTER OF A WEAKENING FLOSSIE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
ALTHOUGH A TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FLOSSIE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 12.7N 140.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 12.9N 141.8W 115 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 13.3N 143.9W 105 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 13.7N 146.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 14.1N 148.1W 85 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 15.5N 152.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 156.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 18.5N 160.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[JonathanBelles]

WOW!!! Major Hurricane Floss! erem Flossie! lol I wouldn't have guessed. It looks really good this morning.

[Chacor]

[HurricaneRobert]

How do you tell if it's annular? Does it have the little pinwheel clouds in the eye?

[Chacor]

How do you tell if it's annular? Does it have the little pinwheel clouds in the eye?

Annular hurricanes generally have no outer rainbands and are pretty symmetrical.

[WmE]

Anyway this hurricane is NOT annular!

[Chacor]

Interesting tidbit: Daniel 2006 was annular.

[chadtm80]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane

[Derek Ortt]

the hurricane is annular according to the objective criteria. It may not be the most annular, but it still qualifies as annular