System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Brent]

This area is looking more and more impressive by the hour, I'm not ready to call for development yet, but if this persists into tomorrow something could develop really fast over the weekend.

[HouTXmetro]

Is the ULL that is rolling west ahead of the surface trough near Jamaica forecast to maintain strength?

Only way the area near Jamaica would end up in Mexico is if that ULL weakened considerably. The subtropical ridge is going to follow the ULL west and steer whatever develops into the gulf isn't it?

We still don't have a circulation to initialize the models with, although someone must have tried some "what if" initializations since a system could develop closer in than the models have been showing.

Do you have a link to any what if scenarios? I'm curious

[Derek Ortt]

this COULD develop

though we do have a real USA threat in Flossie that I'll likely be spending 80% of my forecasting time on

[Sjones]

I'm willing to say it will be an invest no later than noon tomorrow.

[windstorm99]

Has anyone seen the ULL spinning in the western caribbean?

[Aric Dunn]

Has anyone seen the ULL spinning in the western caribbean?

yeah its going to help the system out

[Aric Dunn]

watch this area throught the night just WSW of jamaica

[windstorm99]

We'll its probably the reason for this flare up right now.

[Aric Dunn]

We'll its probably the reason for this flare up right now.

yes it is.. we have good divergence aloft thats what you need

[EDR1222]

Well, not that anything is even going to happen...we just don't know, but for the sake of argument, if that model run somehow pans out to some degree, it sure indicates a strange path moving the system north for a bit to a position off the West Central Florida coast and then a sharp left hook to an almost south of due west path. It would seem to indicate evidence of a very strong high pressure ridge building elbowing all the way into the Gulf.

It will be interesting to see first, if anything develops and then ,what kind of path it would take. At least we have something to watch, even if it just is a blob right now.

[srainhoutx]

Euro 168 hours is the only development i see from it

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... z/f168.gif

That's last night's run, but I just plotted the 12Z ECMWF run with isobars every 0.5mb and it has a 1005 mb low moving across the central Yucatan next Wednesday. It develops a weak low near Panama by Friday and tracks it NW to the Yucatan next Wednesday. Heck, here's the screen shot. Again, I plotted isobars every 0.5mb. Normal weather maps are every 4 mb, so my map shows 8 times as many contours. Pressures across the northern Gulf are only 5mb higher than over the Yucatan.

pretty good call I'd say

[Cyclenall]

watch this area throught the night just WSW of jamaica

You mean throughout? I have never tracked a area of convection all night long, now that is a hurricane nut!

[Aric Dunn]

watch this area throught the night just WSW of jamaica

You mean throughout? I have never tracked a area of convection all night long, now that is a hurricane nut!

yeah lol thats what i meant .. did spell check i guess it changed to that

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Aric Dunn]

041
ABNT20 KNHC 100213
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[vaffie]

10:30pm TWO:

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Sounds like we'll have an invest tomorrow.

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Sounds like we'll have an invest tomorrow.

Yep! It does to me too, especially if that convection persists.

Things are gonna get very interesting over the weekend I think.

[Aric Dunn]

10:30pm TWO:

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Sounds like we'll have an invest tomorrow.

Yep! It does to me too, especially if that convection persists.

Things are gonna get very interesting over the weekend I think.

just remember look further west of jamaica could be a low forming now

[srainhoutx]

IR2 seems to "hint" W of Jamaica...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

[Sanibel]

See if it persists. After 99L I won't trust any wave until it spins.


This is NOT where CMC had its system originate.