99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[skysummit]

I was just thinking about something. Say this would've been a convection free wave as it moved across the Caribbean, and was never in invest, and right now would be the first time it would be blowing up. Would we be looking at this differently? For instance, there have been many waves that moved across the Atlantic to do nothing, but the minute convection increases, attention turns to it. Convection has been increasing today, however, interest is slim and I believe that's because of its past.

...just curious to wonder what today would be like if the last 4 - 5 days wouldn't have occured.

[HURAKAN]

i will watch it.

Me too. Not because I have too much faith that it will develop, its just that there is nothing else to track!!!

[Sanibel]

It could be slowing down. That center burst isn't zipping along. (Or it's being sheared and left behind?)

[Stratosphere747]

It does appear to be slowing down. Also of note is that for being such a nocturnal system, how intense the rate of convection increase over the last few hours. Though I'm not sure if the shear it is entering into is enhancing the storms.

The NHC may have pulled invest status a bit quickly?

[Ptarmigan]

Whatever happens to 99L, I expect rain somewhere on the Gulf Coast.

[wxman57]

Whatever happens to 99L, I expect rain somewhere on the Gulf Coast.

Based upon what?

[NDG]

Notice how the shear that was coming in from the west this morning is now much lighter and coming from the SSW, yes, divergance is helping in the convection build up but at the same the is not killing it.

[Aric Dunn]

Thread 7 lol .. anyway the only shot this thing has is if it slows down soon enough before running into northern Honduras and Belize or maybe as far north as the Yucatan. present motion is being steered by the sub tropical ridge to its north steering currents show a bit more of a wnw to possibly NW motion starting sometime later tonight and tomorrow. Question is will it slow down and allow it to get vertically stacked and will the low level shear drop. The upper environment should slowly improve over the next 12 to 18 hours.

mid level




Low level





I dont expect it to develop but it does need to be watched until it moves inland.

[Ptarmigan]

Based upon what?

Wherever it goes and when I mention Gulf Coast, it's from Mexico to Florida. With convection, you get rain.

[chrisnnavarre]

Anyone think this has a chance to get into the Yucatan Pass????

[astrosbaseball22]

Based upon what?

Wherever it goes and when I mention Gulf Coast, it's from Mexico to Florida. With convection, you get rain.

LA-TX-Mexico

[southerngale]

Based upon what?

Wherever it goes and when I mention Gulf Coast, it's from Mexico to Florida. With convection, you get rain.

I was under the impression that an upper level ridge would be building and most likely protect a turn toward the U.S. Gulf Coast and it would most likely hit Mexico.

AFM? wxman57? Where would it, whatever it may be, most likely go?

[Aric Dunn]

Based upon what?

Wherever it goes and when I mention Gulf Coast, it's from Mexico to Florida. With convection, you get rain.

I was under the impression that an upper level ridge would be building and most likely protect a turn toward the U.S. Gulf Coast and it would most likely hit Mexico.

AFM? wxman57? Where would it, whatever it may be, most likely go?

I know im not either one of them but i can tell you that a Us threat is very minimal! mexico is just about as far north as it would go .

[srainhoutx]

sipet from Brownsville AFD this afternoon concerning wave...



000
FXUS64 KBRO 031919
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
215 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007

.DISCUSSION... MEANWHILE...OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO RACE WEST AND ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TAKING THIS
FEATURE DUE WEST INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THIS WEEKEND EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE SUN/EARLY MON. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS
FEATURE STAYS WELL SOUTH OF DEEP SOUTH TX...SOME OF THE NORTHERNMOST
EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
SKIRT THE BRO CWA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY MENTION SOME
SLGT CHC POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Hope that helps.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[HURAKAN]

Looking quite strong towards the minimum.

[chrisnnavarre]

Gee, sure looks like every thing in the Western Caribbean is flowing north to me. Right towards the Yucatan Channel... I'm confused I guess... Also, looking at the forecast out of Brownsville, I don't see this thing racing anywhere currently.

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, it sure has built back from what it looked like this morning. I think this may have a short window of oppertunity if it slows down in the next 12hrs. Looks very good for the Durinal minimum.

Where this could go i only expecta almost due west track maybe a slight turn to the WNW into Central Americia maybe as a depression or weak storm. If it has the chance, thats probably too high expectations.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING RAPIDLY INTO AND THROUGH THE WRN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 21N. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN THE SPECIAL
FEATURE THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES FROM 14N-21N
BETWEEN 75W-82W. TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO
EXIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 400NM E OF THE AXIS FROM
14N-19N. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO
JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HINDERED BY PROXIMITY TO LAND.

Nothing new compared to the TWO at 5 PM EDT.

[Normandy]

That blowup of convection has some very nice rotation it seems, however it doesn't seem to be at the low levels. Also appears the wave has slowed drastically...

[x-y-no]

Looks to me like the descending pass of Quikscat should catch the disturbance later tonight (just eyeballing it based on where the pass went a couple of hours ago.

Don't know how fast they get it posted ...