Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[gatorcane]

How about the convection that is firing now......

[chadtm80]

why is everyone assuming that recon is flying? Since the obs are fairly conclusive, it would not surprise me to learn that recon is cancelled

Well I am assuming because I feel it looks better then it did yesturday.. I have not researched crap though and you know what assuming does

[vaffie]

valuable discussion hyperstorm--you always have great insights. I think it's rapidly deepening, but it's just an opinion.

[Cyclone1]

Wow, most deep convection it's ever had. There could easily be a non-distinguishable LLC somewhere in there, despite he fast fwd movement.

[gatorcane]

We can't say this is a rapidly deepening tropical storm at this time. There is the most important ingredient missing...a defined low-level center.

As expected, the tropical wave has not developed over the past couple of days due to the marginal environment it's been embedded in. The system surely, though still has potential for development over the next 24-48 hours. Once it gets to the point SW of Puerto Rico and on westward, we could begin to see improved organization. Of course, we need the system to do one thing first. It needs to slow down! With the fast forward motion, it will have less time to strengthen over the very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and it will have a tough time developing a west wind.

We have one major thing going for its development right now, and that is the explosive development of thunderstorms. That usually will lead to a development of a LLC, but only if it can slow down. This process usually takes about 24 hours, so tomorrow we could easily be talking about tropical storm Dean, again IF it slows down even 5 mph. The slower forward speed would also keep it from the strongest upper-level southerly shear associated with the upper-level low developing over the western Caribbean Sea. The ULL is moving westward, but so is the system and if it doesn't slow down, it will cut it to pieces. As a matter of fact, latest satellite imagery indicates southerly shear beginning to impact the SW periphery of this persistent disturbance.

Will be a very interesting couple of days coming up...I'll be watching.

Hyperstorm as I continue to say, I am bullish on this system. that TUTT low off to the west reminds me of what Ernesto saw last year. What probably will happen is that since our invest is moving so fast it will start to get pushed off to the WNW like Ernesto did due to the counterclockwise flow around the low....But I do agree with you. In about 1-2 days this thing should get going very nicely....

Dean is on the way folks...

[Buck]

If this thing keeps up, we are totally going to see Dean very soon. It may not have had a LLC yesterday when Recon went, but I'd be shocked if it didn't have one now or was building one. It's deepening very quickly.

[Aquawind]

Nice blob alrighty.. Hmmm interesting motion in the cloud tops as well.. past the islands so surface obs will be limited.. Best consolidated convection yet..lol

[gatorcane]

If this thing keeps up, we are totally going to see Dean very soon. It may not have had a LLC yesterday when Recon went, but I'd be shocked if it didn't have one now or was building one. It's deepening very quickly.

Yes it is and guess what, its in the Eastern Caribbean That graveyard right? Still its fast forward speed like Hyperstorm mentioned will not allow it to rapidly develop but it is undoubtedly going to slow down in forward motion -- which will give it a great opportunity will low shear, warm waters, and alot of water to go over until and land masses.

[skysummit]

Yea, you really never know....with no surface obs in close vicinity to the blow up of convection, it's hard to tell if there may be a developing LLC right now. After a few more visibles, we may have a better idea.

[Meso]

Remember it takes a while for an LLC to develop,the convection really needs to maintain itself for a while.Sure the convection does look good,but it could always do has it has done many times over the past few days and die down again.Will see.If the convection is there in a few hours,can see if it's able to maintain it.(And I'm usually rather optimistic when it comes to storms).But it could have something going

[Aquawind]

Remember it takes a while for an LLC to develope,the convection really needs to maintain itself for a while.Sure the convection does look good,but it could always do has it has done many times over the past few days and die down again.Will see.If the convection is there in a few hours,can see if it's able to maintain it.

Exactly.. back to that persistance thing..

[HURAKAN]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 9_sat.html

If you click "Animate" you will see what seems to be at least a MLC by the movement of the convective clouds.

[gatorcane]

I would say that convection could easily die off over the day with warming clouds tops. If that convection can maintain throughout the day it would be amazing.

[Chacor]

There was a 1211Z SSMIS F-16 pass that at CPA was 115 km from the disturbance. Want to see if it picked up a circulation in microwave.

Just as I type this the latest QSCAT is out, 10:29 pass did not find an LLC.

[caneman]

Latest Quikscat not show an LLC. However, there does look to be some TD strength winds in the NE quad. Oops the link and I was typing this as Chacor posted.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/oce ... atl_11.png

[skysummit]

I would say that convection could easily die off over the day with warming clouds tops. If that convection can maintain throughout the day it would be amazing.

I agree gator. It's almost too much convection to maintain without an LLC. If it does maintain itself, I'll be shocked, and impressed.

[Aquawind]

I would say that convection could easily die off over the day with warming clouds tops. If that convection can maintain throughout the day it would be amazing.

Oh yea.. That would be amazing and probably form a LLC.

[skysummit]

No more bullish intensification from SHIPS 12z.


575
WHXX01 KMIA 021247
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC THU AUG 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK (EP082007) 20070802 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070802 1200 070803 0000 070803 1200 070804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 129.7W 14.1N 131.5W 14.5N 133.2W 14.8N 135.0W
BAMD 13.5N 129.7W 13.8N 131.8W 14.1N 133.7W 14.5N 135.6W
BAMM 13.5N 129.7W 13.9N 131.6W 14.2N 133.5W 14.8N 135.4W
LBAR 13.5N 129.7W 13.8N 131.8W 14.6N 134.4W 15.7N 136.9W
SHIP 30KTS 28KTS 29KTS 30KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070804 1200 070805 1200 070806 1200 070807 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 137.0W 14.3N 141.0W 13.8N 144.8W 14.1N 147.5W
BAMD 14.9N 137.4W 15.5N 141.2W 15.8N 144.5W 16.1N 147.0W
BAMM 15.1N 137.4W 15.5N 141.7W 15.6N 146.0W 15.9N 149.8W
LBAR 16.6N 139.2W 17.7N 143.4W 17.4N 147.1W 16.7N 151.5W
SHIP 33KTS 36KTS 43KTS 47KTS
DSHP 33KTS 36KTS 43KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 129.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 127.9W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 125.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Chacor]

Code: Select all

765
WHXX01 KWBC 021250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC THU AUG 2 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070802 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070802  1200   070803  0000   070803  1200   070804  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N  65.0W   14.0N  69.6W   15.6N  74.8W   17.1N  79.7W
BAMD    12.6N  65.0W   13.3N  68.5W   14.1N  72.0W   14.9N  75.6W
BAMM    12.6N  65.0W   13.7N  69.2W   14.8N  73.6W   16.2N  78.0W
LBAR    12.6N  65.0W   13.2N  69.1W   14.1N  73.4W   15.1N  77.7W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          33KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          33KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070804  1200   070805  1200   070806  1200   070807  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.3N  84.2W   20.1N  91.9W   21.8N  96.9W   23.7N 100.2W
BAMD    15.5N  79.4W   16.2N  86.8W   16.3N  93.6W   15.9N  99.3W
BAMM    17.3N  82.2W   19.0N  89.7W   20.4N  95.3W   21.2N  99.5W
LBAR    16.4N  81.7W   19.1N  88.7W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        47KTS          63KTS          76KTS          85KTS
DSHP        47KTS          46KTS          47KTS          30KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.6N LONCUR =  65.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
LATM12 =  12.5N LONM12 =  59.9W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  56.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

AL, 99, 2007080212, , BEST, 0, 126N, 650W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[DESTRUCTION5]

No more bullish intensification from SHIPS 12z.


575
WHXX01 KMIA 021247
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC THU AUG 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK (EP082007) 20070802 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070802 1200 070803 0000 070803 1200 070804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 129.7W 14.1N 131.5W 14.5N 133.2W 14.8N 135.0W
BAMD 13.5N 129.7W 13.8N 131.8W 14.1N 133.7W 14.5N 135.6W
BAMM 13.5N 129.7W 13.9N 131.6W 14.2N 133.5W 14.8N 135.4W
LBAR 13.5N 129.7W 13.8N 131.8W 14.6N 134.4W 15.7N 136.9W
SHIP 30KTS 28KTS 29KTS 30KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070804 1200 070805 1200 070806 1200 070807 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 137.0W 14.3N 141.0W 13.8N 144.8W 14.1N 147.5W
BAMD 14.9N 137.4W 15.5N 141.2W 15.8N 144.5W 16.1N 147.0W
BAMM 15.1N 137.4W 15.5N 141.7W 15.6N 146.0W 15.9N 149.8W
LBAR 16.6N 139.2W 17.7N 143.4W 17.4N 147.1W 16.7N 151.5W
SHIP 33KTS 36KTS 43KTS 47KTS
DSHP 33KTS 36KTS 43KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 129.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 127.9W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 125.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Wrong storm