INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[alan1961]

Get the barbie out..lets have a pre-Chantal party before she goes " poof "

For a moment,I was wondering what a Barbie doll had to do with it I now understand what you meant

maybe i should of said burger fries and a beer

['CaneFreak]

Alex formed tomorrow in 2004. Just sayin.

Remember, I promised my boss after Barry sneaked in on June 1st that there would be no more named storms until August.

Nice....maybe this one will be a slow developer...

[GeneratorPower]

It looks good. I am betting on TD3 at the 5:30pm cycle.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS still doesn't pick up on any development, but continues to show a non-hostile upper air environment for this system over the next several days.

[RL3AO]

Remember, I promised my boss after Barry sneaked in on June 1st that there would be no more named storms until August.

So if Chantal gets named at 11ET on July 31, you can say it formed at 0300 UTC August 1?

[RL3AO]

It looks good. I am betting on TD3 at the 5:30pm cycle.

I think it needs to make it through the day and have another blowup tonight and then maybe Tuesday morning it might get called.

[Stormcenter]

Come on now folks this thing hasn't even developed or moved into the Carribean (if it does)
and some of you are already jumping the gun saying it is a GOM threat and whatever.
It may just go poof like many have done in the past. We had many false alarms like this last season.

My clients in the NW Gulf might disagree with that thinking. Some of them in the deepwater areas off Louisiana require nearly 6 days to safely shut down operations and evacuate. That means, they'll have to make a decision whether to begin shutdown procedures in the next day or two. Considering the cost may run in the millions per day, that's a big decision. They can't wait until it reaches the east Caribbean as there won't be time to safely shut things down if it becomes a threat. For the general public though, it's a long way from forcing any actions on the Gulf coast.

Good reply wxman57. Thank you.

[GeneratorPower]

I think it needs to make it through the day and have another blowup tonight and then maybe Tuesday morning it might get called.

I don't think so. We're talking a TD, not a TS. If there is no change in the surrounding weather pattern before tomorrow morning, I would think TS by 11:30.

If this continues to look like this for the next few hours without disruption, you'll surely have TD3 at 5:30pm. There's no reason for it not to. Get a good QuikScat right over the top and you'll see the LLC.

[wxman57]

It looks good. I am betting on TD3 at the 5:30pm cycle.

Say, a $100 bet? NHC won't be in any hurry at all to call it a TD, particularly as there is no evidence of an LLC. Recon may fly Wednesday if it holds together. Nothing will happen before then, most likely.

[GeneratorPower]

It looks markedly better just in the last few hours.

[LSU2001]

I wonder how the oil futures market will respond when forecasters begin to discuss the POSSIBILITY that this invest may cause problems for the GOM oil rigs????

Oil closed Friday 1 cent from a record, any potential disruption could cause very steep increases simply on speculation.
I hate to see what happens when a storm actually enters the gulf.
My 2 cents,
Tim

PS. I too am watching this one closely.

[RL3AO]

I wonder how the oil futures market will respond when forecasters begin to discuss the POSSIBILITY that this invest may cause problems for the GOM oil rigs????

Oil closed Friday 1 cent from a record, any potential disruption could cause very steep increases simply on speculation.
I hate to see what happens when a storm actually enters the gulf.
My 2 cents,
Tim

Cat 5 in the GOM away from $100 oil?

[Ed Mahmoud]

The various BAM models don't update from the GFS forecast winds? They just move the system at the speed of the shallow, mid-level or deep layer shearing with no change in those?


That doesn't sound very useful.

[hurricanetrack]

Look at what happened to OJ this morning!

http://www.mcall.com/business/local/all ... 1672.story

[alan1961]

I think it needs to make it through the day and have another blowup tonight and then maybe Tuesday morning it might get called.

I don't think so. We're talking a TD, not a TS. If there is no change in the surrounding weather pattern before tomorrow morning, I would think TS by 11:30.

If this continues to look like this for the next few hours without disruption, you'll surely have TD3 at 5:30pm. There's no reason for it not to. Get a good QuikScat right over the top and you'll see the LLC.

Im with you on that Generator, get some close up loops on visible and its coming together nicely..conditions permitting of course

[Aquawind]

Patience for persistance please..no need for namage yet.

It's looking very good but elongated..

[RL3AO]

Shear is low near the islands...a little higher in the Caribbean.

[Stormcenter]

Look at what happened to OJ this morning!

http://www.mcall.com/business/local/all ... 1672.story

Amazing!!!!!!!!!
I would not be surprised to see the oil companies
use the same "excuse" to increase gasoline prices.
Only in America.

[x-y-no]

16:22z descending pass of QuikScat:

[Weatherfreak14]

Looking very good and it looks it will continue to hold together, i dont think this will go poof anytime soon.. It bears watching big time. It looks it could be starting to form a LLC now or will form one in the next couple of hours.