east coast safe, from fla north this season?

[rainstorm]

the trough has been very persistent. even though the east coast will temporarily warm up, it is because the trough has moved even further into the atlantic, which is even more protective of the east coast. no sign of a bermuda high at all. unless the trough retrogrades to over or just west of the appalacians, i dont think the east coast has anything to worry about.

[Stormsfury]

the trough has been very persistent. even though the east coast will temporarily warm up, it is because the trough has moved even further into the atlantic, which is even more protective of the east coast. no sign of a bermuda high at all. unless the trough retrogrades to over or just west of the appalacians, i dont think the east coast has anything to worry about.

Only in the short term...

[OtherHD]

As long as the GULF isn't blocked, I'm fine.

[ColdFront77]

Like SF just said... The trough is located off the east coast of the United States now, it has nothing to do with what is the potential for the rest of the season.

[mf_dolphin]

To say the East Coast is safe this season is short-sighted at best and inaccurate at worst. Just because we have had a pattern fo the first 21 days of the season in ni way guarantees that pattern will hold for the balance.

[Anonymous]

Respectfully disagree. The reason why the Bermuda High has been weaker lately is mostly due to the lingering El Nino affects. Will the El Nino affects linger for much longer? Probably not. So in all likelyhood, this trough pattern will change as the season's climax draws closer. Actually, almost every single factor points towards at least one east coast landfall this year. Weak La Nina, positive NAO, easterly stratospheric QBO...you name it...are all screaming "east coast action." The Carolinas, to be more specific, should be a target, provided the above factors go as planned.

The GOM, on the other hand, should be relatively quiet. Climatologically speaking, years following years with 6 or more named storms (as seen in 2002) in the Gulf tend to see only 2 or 3.

[cycloneye]

Agree Rob that still the el nino pattern is somewhat out there and it wont be until august that we will see a neutral to la nina pattern established in the atlantic.

[rainstorm]

maybe, but this pattern has been very persistent.
2000,01, and 02 dr gray has said the east coast had a higher than normal chance of a landfall for a major. this trough has to go first.

[ColdFront77]

A persistent pattern now does not mean the same set up for days and weeks on end. The weather systems are always moving and very easily this trough off the east coast can move and/or dissipate.

[Derek Ortt]

There is some lag time between the onset of la nina and the atmospheric effects taking hold. Therefore, since la nina is in no hurry to come back and we are still in an el nino, assuming that it is not until mid August that we do become neutral (and I trust Saddam Hussein more than an ENSO model), it may not be until PAST the peak of the hurricane season before the la nina effects begin to take hold in the Atlantic

[rainstorm]

There is some lag time between the onset of la nina and the atmospheric effects taking hold. Therefore, since la nina is in no hurry to come back and we are still in an el nino, assuming that it is not until mid August that we do become neutral (and I trust Saddam Hussein more than an ENSO model), it may not be until PAST the peak of the hurricane season before the la nina effects begin to take hold in the Atlantic

what worries me is that the east coast isnt warming up because of the bermuda high. it will temporarily warm because we will be in the nw flow behind the trough. not good at all

[wxman57]

Although there has been a somewhat persistent trof over the eastern U.S. (Great Lakes), the general flow pattern across the tropics is such that any disturbance tracking westward off Africa toward the Caribbean would be carried west-northwest until around Cuba before recurvature begins. This happened with the remnants of TD 2, which helped to cause all the heavy rain in Florida the past 3-4 days. So such a pattern would indicate a very high risk for a landfalling storm from Florida up through the Carolinas. And that assumes that the current pattern doesn't change.

But it's pretty early in the season - summer just began yesterday. I suspect that the trof over the eastern U.S. will slowly weaken over the next month or two, allowing the Bermuda high to ridge a bit farther westward. Although I certainly don't expect as many named storms in the Gulf as last season, this type of pattern would tend to bring any Cape Verde storm west through the Caribbean and into the Gulf or Florida to the Carolinas. With reduced wind shear in the lower latitudes this season, I think there's a very high probability of a major hurricane landfall - particularly in Florida.

As for El Nino/La Nina. The only place El Nino is slightly hanging on is in the central and western Paciic. Water in the eastern Pacific is quite a bit cooler than normal now.

One other thing to consider is where the significantly above-normal SSTs are this season - across the Caribbean, eastern Gulf, and southwest Atlantic. This may point to a better chance of major hurricane activity in this area, and also more storms tracking though that region.

And, finally, each season around this time I look at all the upcoming names and try to imagine which one is the storm we'll be talking about for years. This season, Grace catches my eye. It's far enough down the alphabet that the western Gulf may be spared, so I'm thinking Florida.

[OtherHD]

And, finally, each season around this time I look at all the upcoming names and try to imagine which one is the storm we'll be talking about for years. This season, Grace catches my eye. It's far enough down the alphabet that the western Gulf may be spared, so I'm thinking Florida.

LOL...it's good to know that even mets do that.

[Toni - 574]

OK guys, can't say that I disagree with any of your theories so let's take a closer look here. From what I just heard most of the disagreement is related to the specific time of the season and how all the elements will line up for certain areas.
Rob, if you remember I took the same analog years that you all used and averaged them. There were 107 storms. A lot of these storms re-curved and or dissipated(up to 70%) North Carolina has a 5.5% chance for a landfall and South Carolina has a.93% There is an over all % rate that the Carolinas will have a 13.8% chance this year for a landfall.I believe that the East Coast will have a better chance for a land falling hurricane in latter part of JUly, and then Aug. and Sept If we take a look at the entire Gulf Coast region including Florida we are looking at a 24% chance for a landfall. The Islands have up to a 50% chance for a landfall and Mexico has a 6.5% chance.

Now all of that being said if you take a look at 1964 as a stand alone year(there was 11 storms) the whole state of Florida was at 36% followered by 36% that re-curved and or dissipated. Texas and Louisiana combined was at 18%, and Central America was 9%.

Taking all of this into account I am going to say that the East Coast over all has a better chance this year to see a 2-3 land fall and also believe that the GOM will see that many or more, but not untiil the latter part of the season, maybe a TS before the middle of July. The Islands, well their really out there and stand a very high chance for a land fall this season.

To bottom line this, all of the %'s is based off of history facts, and does not didictate the type of year we will have but only gives us the chances of it happening.

I am very new at this, and most likely may not have the entire facts, but at least it gives me something to think about and most important something to talk to you all about. Please give feed back on my findings!

Toni


Analog years used were:52,54,84,88,89,96,98,2000,2001, and (64) as a stand alone.

[Anonymous]

Hey Toni. TWW and I never bothered to find landfalling %s based on those years that we listed in our seasonal forecast...yet you have; good work. It's interesting that many of our analog years had some nasty east coast hurricanes. It just adds to the pile of evidence that the east coast will be a spotlight this season. Hopefully I'm wrong and we'll see a bunch of fish storms. The good news, possibly the ONLY good news for this season is that the Gulf should get a break.

[JetMaxx]

Look at these years when major landfalling hurricanes occurred on the Florida Penisula (since 1870):

1873
1880
1888 (likely 4)
1896
1909
1910
1919 (4)
1921
1926 (4)
1928 (4)
1929
1933
1935 (5)
1944
1945
1947 (4)
1948
1949
1950
1960 (4 - DONNA)
1965
1992(5 - ANDREW)

2003???

Only TWICE in 133 years has Southern Florida escaped a landfalling major hurricane more than 11 seasons in a stretch (1897-1908 and 1966-1991).

We're approaching the 11th annivesary of hurricane Andrew. If I lived anywhere in Florida south of a Titusville to Bayport line, I'd be preparing AS IF a major hurricane is on the way later this season (between late Aug and mid Oct)...because the statistical odds are stacked in favor it occurring

Just my .02 cents worth...

Perry

[Toni - 574]

Thanks Perry, I like to have the knowledge of this type of statistical info. This is based totally off of facts. Not to say that it is actually goin to happen this year but as you pointed out time is nigh.

On that note I think I might need more H2O...

Toni

[Anonymous]

The Bermuda High has been stronger than average. Its just a matter of time before the trough over Florida moves east.

[MGC]

If the trough is still there in 3-4 weeks then I'd start worring. One thing I look for is persistence in a particular pattern. The key will be the ridge in the west. I've seen entire summers where a ridge will anchor itself over a particular region and sit and sit. A couple of summers ago a ridge dominated the east, remember the drought? This summer it seems to be setting up out west......MGC

[Anonymous]

If the trough is still there in 3-4 weeks then I'd start worring.

What I would worry about is if the trough does exit. This season has A LOT of potential.