U Turn Wind Profile:Aspen Fire

[Arizwx]

Oro Valley,AZ 22JUN03 12:25PDT

Dear Freinds,
As you may know,of all the Good Members of this Cyber Community,I am closest by Geography and Miles to the disaterous Aspen ..now pegged 'AZ Wildfire'.I have a perfect view/vantage point at any time day or night to observe the movements and behaviours of this monster.I am not as well trained as Dennis or the Kahuna in this arena..however,I have made it my business to learn as much as possible very quickly from these Board Mentors.local fire officials accross the street at the El conquisatador resort as well as the myraid of resources available.I then use my head,spirit,experience as a Storm Chaser and ultimately,my Gut to assertain the best scenarios..given the fact also that I am FULLY aware that Ma Nature does and will continue to be unpredictable,unrelenting,unforgiving and will reclaim what has been laid waste or overgorwn by irresponsible and ill concieved agenda and policy.
Let me be clear..what I am progging is NOT official in any capacity.It is soley an opinion,as so little information is coming in from the Firelines.
Here is what has transpired from my vantage point in NE Oro Valley at the W base of the Santa Catalina Mountians..about 24nm SSW as the Baron flies of the main Fire area.I am literaly nudged up to the Mountain,at Pusch Ridge.
At 19:00hrs last night,the winds were backing off as Sat saw sustained 25kt winds to W and SW.Then suddenly,at 03:00hrs this morning,the winds built up to 30kt from ESE and backed off by 04:30.VERY ODD!It seems the fireline caught a break to fight it down ,hence the incredible 5% Containment figure ..notwithstanding nearly 9,000 acres are involved.
Kudos Firefighters!However,at 0:7:40hrs I clocked a gust well past 25kt here in OV.Very unusual,as they slacked to ZERO by 10:30.I am a sailor,open ocean for 40 yrs...I have seen and witnessed strange wind patterns over the Pacific..but on land this is strange.It is as if the fire is creating a path to which it is comfortable via the wind tunnels of the ridges,canyons and deep gultches of the backside of the North Catalina.
The smoke has been 'flat' for 3 days..capped if you will below 17,000ft with prevailing SSW winds carrying smoke and ash toward Dennis 150+nm from here.Here is the catch.Temps are reasonable,in the upper+90s..coolish for a June in Tucson where 102+ is avg and 112-114+ is not unusual.Zero RA is also the mark of June until the July 'Soon.We need a heat blast to sustain an onset of the 'Soon and 105+ is minimal to expect.The CONUS pattern has been 'stuck' with Hvy Fla Rains..Sev wx in the Plains to Montana...Unsettled in the PacNW..a jet flow reminisent of May or April has NYC/BOX etc cut off with a ULL keeping them chilly,wet and nasty.This 'Locked' in a ULL near Las Vegas to SLC which dominated our Wx with high winds on the return flow...just opposite of what we need for a mex inflow with the familiar '4 Corners Hi' scenario vs a counter rotating ULL.Basically,the Jet is WAY too far south for this time of year..carrying GOA ULLs down the Oregon Coast and ejecting into the Great Basin..also the Subtroppy winds over Mexico are still prevailing East to NE up to the GOMEX and creating trstms over the N GOMEX SW of Louisiana.NOT condusive to EPAC 'Canes or our Monsoon..as tops of storms are supressed to far south..and those forming are blown off at 30K feet..the Jet alt.
This leaves SEAZ in a Vaccum void of moisture,and allowing winds to regap the pressure gradient.The orographic lift is zero except when a Wildfire is present!It creates an inflow not unlike a tiny hurricane.It 'eats' fuel..not just trees,it wants Oxygen!If it can find it..it will suck it in and then the explosion with dry air as opposed to a cane flowing inward.It is a Micro Micro MicroWx Phenom..yes Firewx!
Let's continue.The 'locked' pattern has allowed the Fire to dance along as if it had endless energy,as if a Golfer hit a line drive with his 'Big dawg' Driver.Distance and Power.Now,I see something different.The ball is now being 'Topped' by a lifted driver.This allows the Golfball of fire to go down a gulch and hide...hot and dangerous.Now..the short game.Take out the 7iron the Wedge by tonight,as winds are now Slack to Zero.The ball(fire) is now lifted stright up and out of the Sand trap and shanked to the right.
Once it catches the winds aloft above the tree line,an 'out of bounds' Spot Fire emerges and bounces off the trees to who knows where.It sits.It's hot.
The winds emerge Monday,as multidirectional..Light and Variable.By Afternoon..we'll have a powderkeg of fresh fuel for the monster to eat.It turns..possibly a 45deg turn,as firelines must react quickly it is tricky and dam dangeorus.Monday seems the day...to contain to 10% of lose it again IMHO.Let's watch the Wx Pattern change this week..as possible LTG comes back to haunt us in SE AZ..DRY LTG.If we do see this materialize..double the amount of fires in the State.I shudder to think.Lets all hope I am wrong.I do.
Thank you all for your prayers,thoughts and concern.We'll be ok...Fla has major FF problems and I pray for you all as well.We're all in this Wx thing together.
~Be Well and Safe~
DJ

Temp 93F/rh 10%/winds slack/Sun/haze

http://kvoa.com/weather/wxcam.html

[Colin]

I will continue praying for you, as well as everyone else near this fire, that everyone stays safe, and no more homes are destroyed, and nobody else needs to be evacuated.

It is very Odd, and I enjoyed reading your post... you sure do kep your eye on things, don't you!

Stay safe bud!

[Arizwx]

Indeed I do Colin!And I thank you!BTW..did you know that my youngest son out of 3 is to be 13yrs old in July..his name is also Colin?!Aye!A dam fine name for a Scottish Lad!Strong and true!
I'll be a Scottsman in Irish Plaid!Nay!The winds are BACK with a vengenence.
After I wrote this thread, I watched the Mountain CLOSELY.Sure enough!The ball was topped!The flames took advantage of the slack winds and made a run back to the Summit,with mutiple Spot Fires of Enormous size...Crowds and Media Gathered at the Starbucks'/Home Depot /Albertson's Shopping Area less than 1/2 mile from here on Oracle Rd...just agape!Someone said.."what happened?It exploded again?"Someone else grunted.."and NO aircraft in sight!"Nothing.No Bombers.No Slurry.Nothing but new smoke.Its now threatening the already depressed town of San Manuel,AZ..more populated that the others by thousands and already on the ropes as BHP/MAGMA Copper,Inc pulled out the mines.60%+unemployed out in that lovely burg..easily the cleanest and freindliest Mining Town this side of Tombstone.The fire is now linear to the Mountainscape roughly 50miles
UNREAL!Easily 10K acres and growing.Notice in the folowing link,the redirection of the smoke cloud toward San Manuel!We have lost 3 TV/COMM towers also.This shot is from the Uof A Campus,just E of Dwtn TUS looking NNE from 45+miles.Also of note..look at the Summit just left of center..there is a small white dot left of the main cloud/smoke plume..that is the Uof A Observatory in the fray.I live 20+ Miles from this Camera exactly dead center to true shot angle at the BASE of the Mountain!Beautiful eh?..The newer smoke plume near the summit is clearly visable as of 14:30hrs just right of center at http://www.cs.arizona.edu/camera/
Now the winds have come to SSE and SW 14 to 20kt G at the Valley Floor..35-40 up topside.Temps are climbing with it..nearly 100F here at OV 14:30Hrs.Rh is 9%.This is not pretty to watch.

[Aslkahuna]

the 1km res Visual satellite imagery showed the Aspen smoke plume to be more intense today than yesterday.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

I just got off IM with DJ. Another town, San Manuel is in deep poo poo also! He may be going up there later to help with a friend's homes and mother who is not ambulatory. So we need to keep him and all those threatened constantly in our prayers. Basically the fire grew literally by leaps and bounds today towards the Oracle area which is on the N side of Mt Lemmon about 19 mi. NE of DJ. As far as he knows the evacuation of Oracle has begun. So far DJ is fine and only having to deal with smoke when the winds shift and come down the mountain. Of course the mental aspects of being in the situationhe is in right now are something else all together. Keep all of these poor people in your prayers!!!

On a little lighter note-RAIN DANCERS DANCE!!! You know who you are!!! We need to bring on the Monoons yesterday!!!!!!

[Aslkahuna]

have noted what I've said before about the mixing height in Arizona in June and July will understand what I mean in the following. I have looked at the 00Z runs of both the ETA and NGM models and they are both indicating winds in the 30+ knot range at H5 over AZ the NEXT TWO DAYS.
In fact, the NGM is indicating 50kt winds at H5 over Flagstaff. This can not even remotely be good news for fire spread in the Aspen fire or any fire in the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains. Max Elevations in mountains of northern AZ extend up to and above the H7 level and for those locations, the H5 level is essentially what they can expect to have surface during the day add to that the fire generated winds and you have a nasty situation. To make an already grim situation possibly worse is the fact that the same model runs are indicating N-NE wind components in the H7 flow over NoCA and OR and as Arizwx will tell you this is not good for those folks as that will be downslope offshore flow or what the folks in LAX call a Santa Ana-they are northers up north.

Steve

[streetsoldier]

DJ was turned BACK...the firefighters are not local (Montana, NM, wherever) and are discouraging any evac efforts from "civvies".

Com towers are out; KVOA-4 and KGUN-9 (Tucson) are operating on emergency power. He can see FOUR lines of 150' flames 18 miles distant...propane tanks are "popping", ash and embers all over the place.

I've asked Admin to post my original E-mail just after talking to DJ..hope it comes up soon, so's you ALL know what's up.

[Arizwx]

It's quiet out there..with the occasional 'pop' of transformers or propane tanks.I walked Franklin,my loyal Cocker Spaniel,just minutes ago,witnessing flames at least 100'ft high on the Summit,unchecked.Something is wrong,very wrong.It seems as if the fire is so out of control, it is in total control so to speak.
San Manuel is still there..as far as I know.The town if Oracle is ok I think, as I have no TV access.WE lost several TV/Comm towers..3 maybe 4 at this hr of 23:30PDT.
I can't tell you how it feels to have a full rig...4x4,cables,chains,stump puller,turnbuckles,etc only to be turned back from San Man...'Too dangerous' they said.
Indeed it is.

[isobar]

What a terrible, terrible situation! Prayers will not cease until this is under control. Take care and stay safe DJ. Sorry it was too dangerous for you to help out.

[azsnowman]

My God.......if you want to see Hell, come to Az.......there are now a total of "78" fires burning within the state. Most are small, lightning caused fires, a lightning fire will lay down and smolder for days, weeks until the right conditions come along then BAM!

DJ my friend, take care......I saw by the email from Bill, I will post the email shortly after this post, that SAR units are needed, wish we could come down, we were put on standby ourselfs by the WMAT Police, "just in case" the fire near Fought Ridge blows up.

Yes indeed, the Aspen IS in control, creating it's own atmosphere etc...........a fire IS a living monster in full control, we can only sit back and let it run it's course.

The Fort Apache Hot Shots along with Black Mesa Hot Shots, both Type 2 squads, were dispatched yesterday morning early, on their way down there.

Dennis

[azsnowman]

OK Bill......as per your request:

OK, here it is...and you are not going to like it.

Just talked to DJ; he is viewing, from his window, four lines of 150+ foot flames on the mountain. Propane tanks are blowing up, ash and embers all over the place. He's about 18 miles away as the crow flies.

No planes are up...the enviro wackos have an injunction to prevent water filling for 200 miles (to "preserve the water otters"), no slurry planes up...DJ is performing weather services for free, because NWS wants $240,000 for the season to do it (?)..he is on standby via DPS to assist in evacuating people, but the firemen are NOT locals, and won't let him in to DO that...

Meanwhile, 78 fires across AZ are now burning...thousands of acres..and the local news in Tucson is saying NOTHING about the severity of the situation.

Homes are burning on the south-southeast of Oracle...if this is factual, Peppersauce Canyon is lost. Tucson needs SAR people, firefighters, blankets, food, you-name-it.

He asks all to PRAY...and Marshall, put this on every Forum, please...the media are NOT telling the story.

streetsoldier

[Colin]

That's cool, AZ! Your son and me are close in age! He'll be turning 13 in July and I'll be turning 13 in September!

Anyways, you guys are in my prayers... these fires are horrific!

[Aslkahuna]

could get that injunction overturned quickly if they had the cojones to try because this is a "public good" situation-in fact, they could draw water from all those artificial lakes around PHX and TUS that do nothing but evaporate water into the air and provide fishing for rich people. TUS newspapers will not say anything against the wackos since Tucson is the Democratic Liberal city in Arizona-rest assured that the wackos would get roasted here in AZ if that story came out here. My son and I always refer to the main TUS newspaper as the Arizona Red Star..

Weatherwise, it's breezy again today-more so than yesterday. Fortunately the Ash Canyon fire seems well in hand so far. Winds are expected to be strongest in the northern half of the state and above 6k ft elevation.

Steve

[Arizwx]

The Cavalry arrived to find the Fire so entrenched in extremely difficult terrain,that firelines and manpower on the side of the N face cannot be effectively used...simply too dangerous.There are some Helo H20 drops and P-3 Orion Retardant flights low off the tree capopy in progress to attempt a slowing of the onslaught N toward Oracle.
Actually..anyone as familair as I am with this area as a 10yr resident...and former Catalina Council Chairman of the Cub/Boy Scouts that has hiked the terrain in Fog/Ice/Snow/Extreme Heat understands that the Town of Oracle is split in two sections..lower and upper Oracle.it is Upper Oracle where there are lovely homes along Linda Vista and then S into Peppersauce Canyon that leads to the Old Road to the Backside...this road actually winds up in Ski Valley/Summerhaven...I have 2 Busted axles and several dents in Chaser 1 to prove it.
The FD cannot climb out there without heavy 4X4 Vehicles much past Peppersauce....a place dear to my heart...it is where the Boys and I would play in Decembers first snows...May the Good Lord Save it..for their kids.
98F Rh 12% wind 14 SSW G24/Sun 13:20PDT 23JUN03

[JetMaxx]

Guys, I'm continuing to remember you'll in my prayers...that this nightmare will end quickly.

Please stay safe!
Perry

[Colin]

Like I said numerous times, I will continue praying for you folks in Arizona until ALL these fires are out and there are NO MORE!

God Bless You.