Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[tolakram]

On the latest RGB linked to above, is that a swirl just west of the northern islands? Standing back and looking at the blob it appears that would be just about the center of all the convection.




I expect I'm wrong.

[HeeBGBz]

I have a question.... if i have a bunch of images.... and i want to make animation.. how would i do it,,, what program etc... i want to make a animation of some radar images..

I use Jasc Animation Shop. It's fairly easy.

http://www.corel.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=CorelCom/Layout&c=Product_C1&cid=1152105040771&lc=en

[Berwick Bay]

I know what you mean Gator. Organized or not, its a very impressive looking mass. As far as the north track, I don't know yet. I know that a lot of people have laughed at that CMC, which according to what others have posted, have some development coming out of this system to the north. But I don't know, as I posted yesterday, I see a possible "split" in the energy with much of it pulled north by the ULL south of Bermuda, but with a decent residue left over with the wave axis itself as it moves south of Cuba. I would tend to look here (south of Cuba) in coming days for development. But as you know, I am strictly an amateur.

[gatorcane]

After looking at many sat images, I think if anything forms it would be south of the islands. I don't see anything consolidating north of the islands.

But one thing is for sure, you can tell the shear is low because of how the cloud tops are "fanning" out symmetrically. If a low can get going it will have a good environment to thrive, at least in the next 24-36 hours.

Normally the E. Caribbean is the "dead zone" because of shear and proximity to South America. But in this case the shear is minimal.

[CourierPR]

Berwick, I think development is already taking place near the islands.

[x-y-no]

Another thing that mitigates against development north of the islands is that ULL - it's positioned so as to tear anything forming up there to pieces.

[gatorcane]

Lets take a look at steering currents. From this water vapor loop you can see the well-advertised EC trough scenario unfolding as dry air is moving southward over the Great Lakes. Then you can see the large ULLs. One is just E of the Bahamas and another is south of Cuba. Both are moving west which is clearing a path for this disturbed area SHOULD it develop.

I would agree with the CMC at this time that this thing may track close to the bahamas and stay offshore. BUT without even a low pressure yet its hard to say. If a low forms farther south in the convection we could see it move off to the WNW for quite sometime.

[Berwick Bay]

Gatorcane said this
After looking at many sat images, I think if anything forms it would be south of the islands. I don't see anything consolidating north of the islands.

But one thing is for sure, you can tell the shear is low because of how the cloud tops are "fanning" out symmetrically. If a low can get going it will have a good environment to thrive, at least in the next 24-36 hours.
_____________________________________________________
Basically agree Gator. But one possibility would be with a split in energy, and then over the next couple of days the storms pulled to the north (east of the Bahamas) do become better organized. While storms left in the Carib along the Wave Axis also begin to consolidate in two to three days. In that case we might have two systems to watch. But like you, my main money right now is bet on a more southerly development in the Carib S of the central Cuban Coast. Also I think that environmental conditions across the Carib are going to be improving as the wave axis moves west.

[x-y-no]

Then you can see the large ULLs. One is just E of the Bahamas and another is south of Cuba. Both are moving west which is clearing a path for this disturbed area SHOULD it develop.

I don't think that's a real likely scenario. at best, I suppose, the first (western) ULL would move west a little faster than it is now and the other ULL slowly enough to let any developing system slip north between them. In that case, the system would be ventilated some by the ULL retreating to its west.

But more likely, I think, is that any developing system gets sheared by one or the other ULL.

[Sanibel]

I was thinking split system as well but didn't want to blab too much.

Looking like CMC north of the islands consolidating.

[chadtm80]

I have a question.... if i have a bunch of images.... and i want to make animation.. how would i do it,,, what program etc... i want to make a animation of some radar images..

Adobe Photshope

[Meso]

Well photoshop doesn't do animation itself.. but it comes with Adobe Imageready which is an animation making.. So you can just go into photoshop and resize the files to the same dimentions and then import them into imageready,arrange the order and save the .gif... But there are also other small program .gif makers,usually come with a watermark logo on them when they're free though

[CourierPR]

This system has been getting better organized this PM. It does not look like a sheared system to this untrained eye.

[Sanibel]

System is sheared on NE quad. Well visible in visible loop.


Hmm, look at the convection blob SE of PR contracting southward into the center while the upper bands slide N.

[Berwick Bay]

Courier Pr said
Berwick, I think development is already taking place near the islands.
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Courier, while I am impressed with this system, I still can't find any organization. But maybe your looking at something that I can't see. Think we will still have to wait a couple of days. But I'll tell you one thing, this is a whole lot more fun than talking about "you know what". lol

[NDG]

This disturbance is getting organized faster than what the nhc was thinking earlier, IMO.

[Berwick Bay]

NDG said
This disturbance is getting organized faster than what the nhc was thinking earlier, IMO.
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Definitely something to watch. This morning's convection blow-up really had that "look" (know thats not very scientfic). NDG do you think we might have an invest at 5PM Eastern?

[canegrl04]

Will be interesting to see what the NHC discussion is like at 5pm and 8pm.If this thing continues to hold strong ,I don't see why it can't be aINVEST 97 before morning

[ronjon]

This system has been getting better organized this PM. It does not look like a sheared system to this untrained eye.

Actually, there is an upper level anticyclone over top of the mass of convecton now. That is very good for development. The euro progs this upper high to slowly drift west to be near PR in 48 hrs. The euro also fills in and weakens the ULL so that its gone in 72 hrs. We'll see - these models don't usually do a good job with ULLs. I agree with xy if this thing starts moving more northward toward the ULL it will get sheared apart. But if it moves in tandem with the ULH, a different story.

[TheBurn]

Probably just me... but I'm seeing signs of outflow.
This looks darn healthy to me!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/ ... 4_loop.php