Extended Model Outlook ----

[Stormsfury]

Ok ... all the models develop a surface low in the Bahamas in a couple of days, probably frontal related ... however, one model, the Canadian, is very robust in developing a stronger closed low than the rest which moves slowly directly over the Bahamas ... The GFS has the same low, but as a wave of low pressure in the larger scale cutoff low which is now exiting off the NE coast today...The ECMWF also does basically the same thing, as well as NOGAPS and the UKMET to some degree, but less pronounced ... Go to the PSU link below for the model runs ...

Experimental Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields Site

Also in the medium range, one model, the GFS wants to develop a surface feature originating in the Caribbean, and bring it northward into the already rain-soaked Southeast in about 8 to 9 days ... interestingly enough, the GFS has some support for this scenario from the ECMWF on the Day 10 - 3 day average but with a different solution as a strong cutoff feature in the 500mb Geo. Heights shows up in Eastern Canada ...

GFS model run - Valid from June 22nd - June 23rd
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_144m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_156m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_168m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_180m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_192m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_204m.gif

QPF (Quantitive Potential Fields) - This isn't gonna be pretty if this verifies-
Two different 60 hour timeframes - (126-180 hr timeframe) and (186-240 hr timeframe)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_240m.gif

[Colin]

It's not going to be pretty at all... looks like the whole East Coast will be at risk if that verifies! :o This could be disastrous if it does verify so we'll have to keep a very close eye on it... :o :o :o

[Toni - 574]

The Florida West Coast has seen it share of rain the past few days. I'm not sure how much more the ground can handle before we start to see some wide spread flooding. If this weather pattern verifies Florida, as well as the East Coast may be in for a lot of trouble down the road. It doesn't take a hurricane to cause major problems when you have massive amounts of rain, day after day. I'ts been raining here in the St. Pete area all day so far.

Toni

[WidreMann]

I've seen the GFS spit out rain totals like that and then not verify at all too many times. It is after all past the 180 hour resolution step-down and even then, we often can't trust it past 84 hours (the first step-down). As such, I shall remain skeptical.

[Steve H.]

I'll tell you what.....I've had about 5 inches of rain south of Melbourne (Palm Bay) in the last 2 hours and had plenty yesterday here in east central Florida. My screened in porch has an inch of standing water and its still raining; the pool has gone over the top. Can't take much more without damage. Need some sunshine. jeers!!

[wx247]

Let us all hope for your sake it does not verify, but it does look interesting to say the least.

[wxman57]

Actually, what caught my attention was the interaction of a tropical wave with a weak upper-level low in the SW Caribbean about 400 miles south of Jamaica. Earlier, the GFS had been taking the associated squalls NW toward northern Nicaragua and eventually just east of the Yucatan (by 72-84hrs). If it does get that far NW, then I'd say it may have a 40% chance of becoming a TS north of the Yucatan next Thu/Fri. Of course, there's a good chance the squalls will just move inland into Central America. But it's definitely something that got my attention.

It's this disturbance that may (emphasis on may) move into the eastern Gulf and produce quite a bit of rain across Florida and along the east coast. Like another poster suggested, the GFS can go overboard with such system, so I don't buy its solution yet.

[Rainband]

I agree about the gfs. It did make a mistake about the tropical low last week..Funny thing is the tropical moisture that has been streaming into my area and most of florida..took a similar track to the supposed low forecast by gfs.. last week?? Didn't it..So while it made the mistake of spinning up the low..the rain did come down in buckets..Just something to think about!! :o

[Stormsfury]

I agree about the gfs. It did make a mistake about the tropical low last week..Funny thing is the tropical moisture that has been streaming into my area and most of florida..took a similar track to the supposed low forecast by gfs.. last week?? Didn't it..So while it made the mistake of spinning up the low..the rain did come down in buckets..Just something to think about!! :o

Rainband, you got the point I wanted to convey 100% ... while I'm not saying there's gonna be tropical development, the ECMWF (EURO) model gives the solution from the GFS some support, also the GFS Ensembles are in fair agreement with Saturday night's EURO. The point is ... the details ... The GFS did ok with the overall pattern regime, but missed on the specifics ... something that the GFS usually does well in, the overall pattern regime ... whether nor not the system becomes tropical in this range is a mute point, but not the moisture and the overall pattern ... which seems to feature yet another cutoff low for the East and Southeast ... and yes, the moisture corridor looks like it's heading straight for the same areas that have already been hit so hard already ... another feast or famine rule ...

[cycloneye]

Interesting stuff from the models but actually I prefer to wait for a system to be out there and then I can begin from there to discuss about it but what the models do is a very long range forecast that may verifie or not.I also look for models to be consistent and to agree on something not one or two saying something about a system and the rest of the models NADA.

[Rainband]

Interesting stuff from the models but actually I prefer to wait for a system to be out there and then I can begin from there to discuss about it but what the models do is a very long range forecast that may verifie or not.I also look for models to be consistent and to agree on something not one or two saying something about a system and the rest of the models NADA.

I wasn't taking about tropical systems..just the fact the moisture took the same path as a supposed system spun up last week..My point is the models may not always be correct in development..but like this time they were about the rain!! and may be onto another rain event.

[Colin]

We can't say this is going to happen, but the risk is there, and that's the scary part. Most of the East has gotten plentiful rains the last few weeks and if this does come to reality, it may be disastrous. :o

[Anonymous]

Either way, parts of the southeast will experience some heavy rains. Even if something were to develop in the western Caribbean, it would most likely be a moderate TS. Rainfall is the main concern.

[Colin]

Don't you think most of the rest of the East Coast will probably experience excessive rainfall from this feature?

[Rainband]

Either way, parts of the southeast will experience some heavy rains. Even if something were to develop in the western Caribbean, it would most likely be a moderate TS. Rainfall is the main concern.

Rainfall is something we don't need...................

[Stormsfury]

The GFS has backed off the excessive rainfall idea (since it had been harping on it a day) ... however, now on the 18z run in the shorter term ... it wants to hang back the Bahamas low and NOT move it out towards Bermuda like previous runs ... and instead hang it out over the Gulf Stream for a couple of days ... only slowly moving it north ...

The GFS translated the energy now from the Caribbean feature and energizes it in the EPAC and wants to develop an EPAC low ... interestingly enough, the NOGAPS hints at this as well ...

Note: (This is the 12z run --- the 18z hangs back the Bahama low)
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

[Pileus]

Stormsfury, I just read HPC's extended fcst and it does indeed reflect
the GFS' Low in the middle gulf into the panhandle of Fla. Says very
heavy rainfall in SE.

[vbhoutex]

What is making me sit up and take notice is this is all paralleling almost perfectly with the Houston area forecast over the same term, which is hot and dry. We, in fact, are under heat advisories for today and probably the rest of the week.

To say the very least no one in the SE, especially FL needs for this to verify!!!!

[Rainband]

The GFS has backed off the excessive rainfall idea (since it had been harping on it a day) ... however, now on the 18z run in the shorter term ... it wants to hang back the Bahamas low and NOT move it out towards Bermuda like previous runs ... and instead hang it out over the Gulf Stream for a couple of days ... only slowly moving it north ...

The GFS translated the energy now from the Caribbean feature and energizes it in the EPAC and wants to develop an EPAC low ... interestingly enough, the NOGAPS hints at this as well ...

Note: (This is the 12z run --- the 18z hangs back the Bahama low)
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

i am seeing correctly..the lastest GFS and NOGAPS..look like more wet weather and possibly a low in the panhandle late week..I know it's early just an observation!!

[Colin]

Stormsfury - if the system DOES move north, that would probably bring MORE rain into the Mid Atlantic and Southern Northeast, correct?