Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

#141 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:04 am

Aric Dunn wrote:its so happy looking !!! and its sunny :

Notice that all the squalls (I mean THE squall) is right on the ITCZ and tracking due west along the ITCZ. The center is detaching but it's moving into a desert.

#142 Postby **windstorm99** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:11 am

wxman57 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:its so happy looking !!! and its sunny :

Notice that all the squalls (I mean THE squall) is right on the ITCZ and tracking due west along the ITCZ. The center is detaching but it's moving into a desert.

Aric Dunn · #143 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:12 am

windstorm99 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:its so happy looking !!! and its sunny :

Notice that all the squalls (I mean THE squall) is right on the ITCZ and tracking due west along the ITCZ. The center is detaching but it's moving into a desert.

yeah ..i agree ... lol wow we agree.. did you read.. what i wrote to your question earlier?? wxman57

#144 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:16 am

ABNT20 KNHC 041509
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

A very small window left.

'CaneFreak · #145 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:17 am

Well at least they are consistent.... :wink:

#146 Postby **windstorm99** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:21 am

View of the microwave.... :wink:

Chris_in_Tampa · #147 Postby **Chris_in_Tampa** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:23 am

Big Picture...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg
Same as what was just posted above.

If this were to develop, I think it would likely be over the weekend. Although, it has been pointed out to me that shear is forecast to increase by then. Between 48 and 120 hours out in the SHIPS forecast, shear will range from 22 to 27 knots.

So maybe whatever is left, perhaps just a wave, will be around early next week in the Carib. I worry more about it staying low, though not low enough as to sail right into S. America.

And I can't really back up the following, but I think that the "exposed" area is just a vortex that is a part of the broader center. It is getting slung around too fast I believe to be the real center. But I am really bad at finding centers...

Aric Dunn · #148 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:24 am

i just had a thought.. that is obvious... but figured i say it..
everyone does know its july 4 and we were real close to have a TC in the central atlantic.. that is amazing enough and to add to that .. over the past few weeks i we have seen some the strongest waves i have ever seen in june ... if it continues.. well yeah you know...

'CaneFreak · #149 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:26 am

YEAH....YOU KNOW... :cheesy:

Aric Dunn · #150 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:28 am

i know i said it before .. but seriously with a well defined LLC like that.. there is no doubt that if we had convection it would quickly become a TD or evev TS depending on how deep the convection but .. we just dont have the moisture.. maybe later today or tomorrow we will know if the LLC is going to stay together

#151 Postby **windstorm99** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:33 am

Thats the main problem there is not much moisture were the LLC will be moving into its all surrounded by dry air.

Aquawind · #152 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:35 am

Yep it will have to cuddle the ITCZ to even stay alive..limited moisture alrighty..

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #153 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:37 am

So dry air is a big problem for this system
Dry air is really destroying 96L
Yesterday I thought it would intensify
over the Caribbean...
but it now appears that there
is
1. too much dry air
2. shear is forecasted to increase

I think that the tropics will explode
during the August 20-30 period
with our first hurricane/major hurricane
occuring in late August.
Conditions are too unfavorable right now.
Mainly because of dry air.

Praxus · #154 Postby **Praxus** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:40 am

Dry air doesn't seem to be a problem in the gulf where some of the models are forecasting a surface low...

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #155 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:43 am

Praxus wrote:Dry air doesn't seem to be a problem in the gulf where some of the models are forecasting a surface low...

Yes over the gulf there is moisture...but climatologically speaking we get
dry air over the central atlantic

I do think we could see the surface low in the gulf but what
I mean is that there should be no hurricanes becuase the
hurricanes I think will start in late August...
of course i could be very very wrong though

'CaneFreak · #156 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:43 am

This is a classic case of center decoupling!!!! Look at that!!! Unbelieveable!! Nice center....bon voyage... :lol:

Aric Dunn · #157 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:44 am

Praxus wrote:Dry air doesn't seem to be a problem in the gulf where some of the models are forecasting a surface low...

no but there is sinking air in the eastern gulf right now.. i posted a image in that thread that shows a couple features..

Aric Dunn · #158 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:44 am

'CaneFreak wrote:This is a classic case of center decoupling!!!! Look at that!!! Unbelieveable!! Nice center....bon voyage...

from the ITCZ!

'CaneFreak · #159 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:45 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:This is a classic case of center decoupling!!!! Look at that!!! Unbelieveable!! Nice center....bon voyage...

from the ITCZ!

LOL...unbelievable..

'CaneFreak · #160 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Wed Jul 04, 2007 10:57 am

Well we never were looking for much out of this thing anyway...just some potential for SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT...then shear and dry air would be on the increase...so...yeah....waiting for later this month and especially August and September....then there WILL be some robust development....hopefully...

Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

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