Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[CrazyC83]

It's now on NRL. It has a tough road ahead if it wants to become something...it needs to survive the next 48 hours at least. (Didn't we write off something like this two years ago almost to this day???)

[MiamiensisWx]

Although I'm typically skeptical of development, I believe this system should be monitored. I have noticed some decent low-level convergence, and upper-level support is quite sufficient for structural organization. There is a well-defined 500 mbar ridge over the wave axis, and low-level shear will not mitigate slow development. Multi-layer shear analysis indicates a reduction of hostile divergence, too. This would support lower shear values. Persistence is the key, but this system has maintained a good structural presentation. The biggest inhibitive factor includes the stable mid-level thermodynamics. Note the dry air ahead of the sfc low.

The slow motion has been quite favorable for the survival of convective organization. This has allowed a westward surge of low-level moisture, and this could instigate some decent instability ahead of the system. A sfc trough may induce convection, too. In addition, I have been observing a continuous fanning appearance. It is quite evident in water vapor loops. If the upper-level trough pulls out of the area (near 20N and 60W), we may observe the establishment of a weak anticyclone over the eastern Caribbean. This might reduce the effects of mid-level shear. In a nutshell, I wouldn't pronounce this system as a dead wave.

Let's watch the wave axis as it moves to the WNW...

['CaneFreak]

I dont disagree with either one of you, but look at those stratocumulus clouds just a couple hundred miles north of it RIGHT NOW and look at it....this is a tough little circulation....i give it about a 40 to 50% chance because it is already defying all the odds against it right now...just because the thermodynamic environment is not perfect does not mean that it cant overcome those obstacles to become a potential threat further on down the road...

[cycloneye]

The tracks of the first model plots for 96L.

['CaneFreak]

The tracks of the first model plots for 96L.

HMMMMMMM.......

[Chacor]

I go for lunch and this pops up...

[MiamiensisWx]

HMMMMMMM.......

Those early plots are quite similar to the first runs for the disturbance that morphed into Emily in 2005. The position of the wave is strikingly familiar, and the detatchment from the ITCZ also occurred with the pre-Emily wave. I'm not drawing conclusions, but it is intriguing the note the similarities between these systems. The active start to the season has triggered my nerves, too. I'm not nervous, but the reduced sfc pressures have been prevalent across the Caribbean Sea.

[Evil Jeremy]

tommarow will be very intresting!

[100feettstormsurge]

Wouldn't this be TD#1, and not TD#3, since Andrea and Barry were never classified as TD's?

[wxmann_91]

One only needs to see the IR image to observe numerous Stratocumuli just to the north of the system. Very stable, and likely due to strong upwelling as of late in the ctrl/ern Atlantic (waters have actually cooled in that area in the past week, last I checked). So this isn't going to do anything until it hits the Caribbean, and only if it survives.

Given the strong deep layer ridge to the north of the system (594 dm 500mb ridge), I would not be surprised if this system ends up further south than expected.

[TheRingo]

water temps are marginal and the low shear should keep things purring and tracking west for a bit.

[Cyclenall]

It's now on NRL. It has a tough road ahead if it wants to become something...it needs to survive the next 48 hours at least. (Didn't we write off something like this two years ago almost to this day???)

I think your thinking of the tropical wave that become Tropical Storm Chris last year. This is a little similar to that only it's almost 1 month ahead of that. There was however another wave we were keeping an eye on this day last year but it was too sheared I believe.

I don't know what to think of this TW (tropical wave). It has lots of potential down the road.

[TheRingo]

these caribbean temps have really spiked recently.

[MWatkins]

Well...the biggest problem I see is the environment is pretty stable out there...lots of dry air around.

However...BAMS, BAMM and BAMD arent that far apart in 120 hours.

This is the first interesing purely tropical system of the year IMHO...even if it does not hold together if systems continue to move off of Africa with this structure...

Well lets just say there will be lots of discussion going on...

MW

[Chacor]

Wouldn't this be TD#1, and not TD#3, since Andrea and Barry were never classified as TD's?

Nope, Barry was indeed a TD actually btw (TD2). They still take the same numbers.

[windstorm99]

[Berwick Bay]

Gentlemen, I think this thing starting to look pretty good! The convection blow up which began last evening has continued during the night, and it is taking place right about where the apparent spinning of clouds is observed. Also, the system is more consolidated now. Yesterday you had energy breaking off ahead of it and to the north, none of that now. It looks a little small, but much more compact. This consolidation suggests a lower level inflow as opposed to what the last couple of days might have been a more mid-level type circulation. I think all of us, and rightly so, have been a little skeptical about development this early and this far out into the Atlantic. But the system looks to be coming together nicely. This normal tropical evening blow-up has helped it. Without any serious diminishment tomorrow, we could be talking depression here, sooner rather than later.

[tailgater]

Wow, this board is better(smarter post).
The TPC carries it for 72 hrs.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
There is some is weak 200mb vorticity to the N and W of this system but seems to be moving in tadem with the Invest. We can see there's a mid level rotation but lots of times out here, they aren't connected to the LLC if there is one, so I think we'll have to wait for some good Visible pics to really see if there is some true organization going on here.

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030911
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT
15 MPH. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER COBB/KNABB

[Thunder44]

Looks like a small system but it does appear better organized this morning. Looks like on IR-2 imagery there may possibly be low or mid level center.