GFS Low Spurious or Not?

[Steve H.]

I mentioned during the week that the pattern is such that the SW Atlantic should be watched. As high pressure builds in the SE US some of the models (GFS, NOGAPS) toy with the idea of energy splitting off the departing trough and developing this area, moving it SW back toward the Florida peninsula. Again the GFS shows it, the NOGAPS did yesterday, but is it just a spurious low? Not sure. We saw this occur the last few years, but typically nothing substantial comes of it. Let's watch future model runs (reference Melbourne, FL AFD). Wave in Atlantic still holding together; one thing for sure - the ITCZ getting active.....but will it be that way in August?? Cheers!!

[Anonymous]

Like I said in the LA post, the low in the northern GOM is probably what the models are trying to develop east of Florida. But the low will likely be nontropical in nature, since its developing along a trough. We will know more in a few days.

[Toni - 574]

I think we are going to see a much more productive Atlantic and CV this season. What we have seen so far could ultimately be a pre-curser to a very active season in that area. The East Coast of Florida stands a very good chance of a landfalling hurricane, as well as the Eastern Seaboard. The GOM will get active again in the latter part of the season. I don't believe we will see anything much different than what we have already seem in the GOM in the near future. In the latter part of the season I do believe that we will see at least a couple of canes in the GOM.

Now, that I have said all of that I am prepared for MOTHER NATURE to do exactly what she wants to do, no matter what any of us has to say !

Toni

[Rainband]

I agree TONI..No-one but mother nature knows what will happen...In this day and age of technology and it's advances..we still cannot predict weather. It is scary to think but realistic to assume..we never will.. no matter what the experts say!! We are good but she is far better.plain and simple!! That being said this year reminds me of 95..

[southerngale]

I agree TONI..No-one but mother nature knows what will happen...In this day and age of technology and it's advances..we still cannot predict weather. It is scary to think but realistic to assume..we never will.. no matter what the experts say!! We are good but she is far better.plain and simple!! That being said this year reminds me of 95..

95? :o

In 1995, we saw 19 named storms.....and 11 of those were hurricanes!!

[Rainband]

I know :o

[Stormsfury]

I agree TONI..No-one but mother nature knows what will happen...In this day and age of technology and it's advances..we still cannot predict weather. It is scary to think but realistic to assume..we never will.. no matter what the experts say!! We are good but she is far better.plain and simple!! That being said this year reminds me of 95..

The biggest difference is that in 1995, La Niña had already taken hold and unlike 2003, the effects of El Niño are still lingering and the pattern continues to lag behind ... nonetheless, factors continue to scream "active season"

[wx247]

Yeah... and while some features may be similar, no 2 years are hardly ever the same which makes forecasting a headache.

[Anonymous]

Another difference is that 1995 had a westerly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, which was an enhancing factor for low latitude activity. This year the QBO is easterly, which conversely, will serve as a slight inhibiting influence.

[Stormsfury]

Another difference is that 1995 had a westerly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, which was an enhancing factor for low latitude activity. This year the QBO is easterly, which conversely, will serve as a slight inhibiting influence.

Exactly ... Thanks for adding that, SC.