ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

:roll:

I need some time off.

What do you mean by that and the rolling eyes?

[boca]

I think he means that it will be a busy season and he needs a break from it.

[Aquawind]

This is going to be a late-starting season...and I am going to be watching Atlantic SST anoms very, very closely. That...to me...is the bigger story. If they continue to cool...everyone is going to lower their numbers a little in the next forecast.

MW

First, the season is off to an extremely rapid start as we are not even out of June and we have 2 named storms. Second, Atlantic SST's are warming, not cooling. Compare SST's month by month and tell me if you see they are warmer June 27 than they were May 27. That is not a cooling trend. I predict the gray/klotchbach forecast will be at least kept the same. SST's are warmer than you think and come August/September I expect them to warm enough in the Caribbean/GOM to support a hurricane of category 5 intensity. SAL, wind shear, and dry air will be the things to monitor, not SST's.

While I agree the current recent trend of warm SST anomalies in both basins has actually increased recently as evident from my prior posts. I would assume this trend is going to be temporary. According to the update Luis posted it seems all of the models are suggesting a cooling Pacific at least. It's certainly not happening in the current pattern. I tend to think we will be warmer in the Atl basin than expected, but to have all the forecast models say cooling..it's a wait and see deal. Basically the current warming pattern is short lived and we will see how long it persists.

The naming of the first 2 systems while in the technical eyes may have seemed like tropical development was really marginal. Subtropical-- they are naming everything now. Total time of a true tropical sytem was like what a few hours for Barry? It was very brief and transitioned almost imeadiately. While I agree with most of what your saying there is a chance the SST forecasts verify and yet we don't see another system until August..then people will be thinking slow.

[skysummit]

The naming of the first 2 systems while in the technical eyes may have seemed like tropical development was really marginal. Subtropical-- they are naming everything now. Total time of a true tropical sytem was like what a few hours for Barry? It was very brief and transitioned almost imeadiately. While I agree with most of what your saying there is a chance the SST forecasts verify and yet we don't see another system until August..then people will be thinking slow.

LOL...people are already thinking slow.

[boca]

Is one of the reason for the cooldown of the eastern pacific due to the easterly trade winds kicking in instead of the west winds we had earlier in the year.I guess like an upwelling effect.Maybe the warm waters are being pushed back west away from the South American coast of the cool down there.

[Aquawind]

LOL...people are already thinking slow.

LOL..well then we will have a consensus..

[cycloneye]

6/28/07 Anomalies



Here are the latest readings of the anomalies in the Pacific as well in the Atlantic.Now is the time to pay close attention to the Anomalies as the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season's peak time draws closer.In the Pacific,let's see if the Equatorial Pacific waters cool,or they stay in a Neutral stage.And in the Atlantic,let's see if the recent trend of warmer anomalies is only a fluctuation or is the start of a trend towards more warmer waters and I know that our friend Mike Watkins is watching this very closely.

[benny]

6/28/07 Anomalies



Here are the latest readings of the anomalies in the Pacific as well in the Atlantic.Now is the time to pay close attention to the Anomalies as the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season's peak time draws closer.In the Pacific,let's see if the Equatirial Pacific waters cool,or they stay in a Neutral stage.And in the Atlantic,let's see if the recent trend of warmer anomalies is only a fluctuation or is the start of a trend towards more warmer waters and I know that our friend Mike Watkins is watching this very closely.

Comparing to a week ago...6/21/07

The eastern Pacific is cooling significantly due to the easterly wind surge. The Atlantic remains warmer than average in general. The problem with this site is that dust can contaminate the SST retrievals... such that the tropical Atlantic temps can fluctuate wildly. I prefer to look at the weekly Reynolds averages for a better comparison.

I'm watching the tropical Pacific with some interest as the thermocline gotten significantly cooler at subsurface at the TAO array under assorted plots. Anomalies of up to 4C have formed near 155w... and after the warm anomalies in the eastern pacific dissipate (from a recent downwelling Kelvin wave from a westerly wind burst in May)...the cooler water will be free to come up. Of course... we have seen this before... but I think the atmosphere has changed since May. The SOI has gone very positive.. and should stay above +5 for a while. Additionally... the strongest convection is centered near Indonesia or westward in the Indian Ocean.. another La Nina-like signal. The stage is set... just have to see if the trades stay near or above average from the east which would bring up all this cooler water...

[cycloneye]

It's easy to see how the blue or cooler waters are creeping westward as the trade winds are strong.

[cycloneye]

CPC 7/2/07 update

No change from their last weeks update in which they made an about face in terms of not declaring La Nina in 1-3 months as they had said in the past few months.

Below is the latest subsurface data in which shows some expansion of the cool pool in the Central Pacific.The Eastern Pacific cool pool mantains.

[wxmann_91]

6/28/07 Anomalies



Here are the latest readings of the anomalies in the Pacific as well in the Atlantic.Now is the time to pay close attention to the Anomalies as the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season's peak time draws closer.In the Pacific,let's see if the Equatirial Pacific waters cool,or they stay in a Neutral stage.And in the Atlantic,let's see if the recent trend of warmer anomalies is only a fluctuation or is the start of a trend towards more warmer waters and I know that our friend Mike Watkins is watching this very closely.

Comparing to a week ago...6/21/07

The eastern Pacific is cooling significantly due to the easterly wind surge. The Atlantic remains warmer than average in general. The problem with this site is that dust can contaminate the SST retrievals... such that the tropical Atlantic temps can fluctuate wildly. I prefer to look at the weekly Reynolds averages for a better comparison.

I'm watching the tropical Pacific with some interest as the thermocline gotten significantly cooler at subsurface at the TAO array under assorted plots. Anomalies of up to 4C have formed near 155w... and after the warm anomalies in the eastern pacific dissipate (from a recent downwelling Kelvin wave from a westerly wind burst in May)...the cooler water will be free to come up. Of course... we have seen this before... but I think the atmosphere has changed since May. The SOI has gone very positive.. and should stay above +5 for a while. Additionally... the strongest convection is centered near Indonesia or westward in the Indian Ocean.. another La Nina-like signal. The stage is set... just have to see if the trades stay near or above average from the east which would bring up all this cooler water...

Well, the latest SOI readings have tanked again... down near -40 the past few days...

[cycloneye]

I consider the next two ENSO updates,from BoM (the Aussies) on July 11th and from CPC (Climate Prediction Center) on July 12th very important as they will show us how is ENSO doing as the Atlantic Peak of the Hurricane season draws closer. In the past few weeks there has been some mixed signals for a La Nina appearance but other signs dont point that far and stay in the Neutral status.

[P.K.]

The subsurface anomalies look to have cooled a fair bit in the last week or so between 180W and 120W Luis.

[cycloneye]

The subsurface anomalies look to have cooled a fair bit in the last week or so between 180W and 120W Luis.

Yes Peter.It looks more coolish in the Central Pacific.Maybe after all La Nina will wake up.

[P.K.]

It has become even cooler since then.

The Nino 3.4 weekly anomaly has dropped a lot this week from +0.11C to -0.18C. All regions except Nino 2 have dropped this week and even Nino 4 is only at +0.11C for the weekly anomaly.

[Aquawind]

That's interesting Peter.. After looking at the latest MJO update for the CPC is continues to show more warm upper ocean heat content..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/i ... tlon.shtml

They even mention a recent Kelvin wave adding to the warm anomalies it in the update and the anomalies in the west continue to grow Bigger since late March..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /mjo.shtml

Looking at the profile graphic in the posts above above the cool anomalies have weakened and the warm has expanded darn near as much as the cool..seems like conflicting analysis...

[cycloneye]

In a few hours (Night in Western Hemisphere and day (July 11th) in Australia,the Aussies (BoM) ENSO Update will be out.This will be a very important update in the sense that is almost prior to the ramp up or the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season and what they will say will be key to what the equatorial Pacific will be comming the heart of the Atlantic season.Neutral or La Nina? We shall see.

[miamicanes177]

where is the link to this report cycloneye? Thanks

[cycloneye]

where is the link to this report cycloneye? Thanks

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

looks like cooler ssts are still extending further west.. since the last update