Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

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Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#1 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jun 21, 2007 9:42 pm

I put this here because the center is mainly for tropical weather.

My $.02 - it sounds nice, but in all honesty, what a waste of money. This is the mission of the NHC. In my opinion, this will only confuse the general public. Normally, I would leap for joy for additional research funding but I think a significant chunk of this is redundant. Furthermore, Fox 26 in Houston did a story on this tonight, and the Rice University professor surmised that 'during Katrina, there was not enough advance warning about what would happen in New Orleans, while LSU was able to model days in advance exactly what would happen.' This really burned me up. To LSU's credit, their model did a great job of predicting storm surge, but to say there was not ample warning to the public is untruthful. All one has to do is dig-up that now famous NWS Local Hurricane Statement from SUNDAY before Katrina hit. It sounds like this professor, along with a handful of others, sucessfully re-wrote History and conned the TX legislature into funding an unnessesary "warning center."

Sheesh I wish journalists would check their facts before airing that kind of stuff.

Anway, here is the press release from Rice:

06/20/2007

CONTACT: Jade Boyd
PHONE: 713-348-6778
E-MAIL: jadeboyd@rice.edu" target="_blank

Texas establishes severe storm research center
SSPEED is state's first hub for storm prediction, evacuation, disaster research

Texas Gov. Rick Perry has signed legislation creating Texas' first research center to focus exclusively on predicting and planning for disasters caused by hurricanes and tropical storms. Legislation creating the new center -- the Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disaster Center, or SSPEED -- was sponsored by Rep. Dennis Bonnen and Sen. Kyle Janek and unanimously passed both houses of the Texas Legislature this spring.

The SSPEED Center, which is housed in Houston and based at Rice University, will organize leading universities, researchers, emergency managers and private and public entities to better address severe storm impacts from Texas to Louisiana in a zone that includes major cities like New Orleans, Houston, Baton Rouge, Galveston and Brownsville.

"Our primary goal is to improve lead-time and accuracy of storm predictions and to deliver information in real time to emergency managers for improved evacuations and sheltering in place," said center director Phil Bedient, the Herman Brown Professor of Engineering at Rice and one of the nation's foremost experts on urban flooding.

The center is an academic and public partnership. Inaugural members include seven leading Texas universities, the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center, and Southeast Texas' largest council of local governments, the Houston-Galveston Area Council.

"The SSPEED Center will put Houston on the map as far as hurricanes and severe storm research are concerned, as well as focus attention on the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast to hopefully attract the resources that will be necessary to better prepare for flooding and hurricanes," said center co-director Hanadi Rifai, associate professor of environmental engineering at the University of Houston.

The center's research areas include:

• severe storm and hurricane research and storm surge prediction

• radar-based rainfall and flood warning systems for urban and coastal areas

• state-of-the-art educational programs for workforce training and public awareness

• infrastructure risk assessment for sheltering and evacuation from disaster

• evacuation plans linked to the best warning and transportation systems, and societal needs.

"The 2005 hurricane season clearly demonstrated the extreme and dire deficiencies that exist in storm prediction, disaster planning, and evacuation in the Gulf Coast region," said Bill King, who in 2005-2006 served on the Governor's Task Force on Evacuation, Transportation and Logistics. "SSPEED is the first center that will address severe storm prediction and impacts in the Gulf Coast Area, and it is well-positioned to respond to the focus areas identified by the Governor’s task force."

Bedient said the center plans to develop computer software capable of mapping flood inundation zones in real time using radar rainfall data. The system will also evaluate hurricane storm surges in real time, and it will link to evacuation scenarios and search-and-rescue operations that will contribute invaluable information for emergency managers. The center also plans to quantify infrastructure risks to allow emergency planners to prevent major failures from critical facility flooding and other shortages. Finally, the center's proposed education and outreach plan is directly aimed at increasing public awareness.

"Bringing together severe storm and real-time flood warnings with evacuation plans and efficient communication can improve the well-being of coastal communities faced with severe storms and natural disasters," Bedient said. "This is a key concept for our center, and it can only be accomplished through an academic, public and private partnership."

The SSPEED Center's expertise will be applied as follows:

• Rice University -- flood prediction and warning; urban hydrologic models; Web integration of real-time data; regional forecast testbed; public policy and response

• University of Houston -- educational outreach for public and high schools; infrastructure risk assessment

• Louisiana State University -- storm surge model prediction; evacuation and transportation planning

• University of Texas-Austin -- disaster planning; storm surge modeling; remotely sensed data; evacuation and transportation systems

• Texas A&M and TAMU-Galveston -- coastal flood evacuation; storm surge impacts; community response, land planning in the coastal zone

• Texas Southern University -- transportation systems and evacuation planning

• University of Texas-Brownsville -- coastal flood response; regional forecast testbed; international border issues

• Houston-Galveston Area Council -- evacuation planning and transportation management; lead governmental unit for operations and response
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Re: Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#2 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jun 21, 2007 10:08 pm

FWIW here is my email to Fox 26 here in Houston:

To Whom It May Concern:

I saw the story on Fox 26 tonight about the new storm research center.

The professor that was interviewed for the story gave some misleading information about the pre-Katrina events of 2005. The professor surmised that there was not enough ample warning given to the residents of New Orleans, and that only LSU’s surge model accurately predicted the devastation to New Orleans.

This is patently false. The NHC, local officials, and local NWS offices gave explicit details about what would happen when Katrina made landfall. The NHC predicted Katrina’s landfall at 72-hours with nothing short of amazing accuracy. Has this professor not read the NWS post-Katrina report:?

http://www.weather.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/Katrina.pdf

Has this professor not seen the hurricane statement issued by the NWS-New Orleans on the Sunday morning before landfall:?

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 A.M. CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

This professor must either be 1) ignorant and obviously knows very little about the pre-Katrina predictions or 2) intentionally re-writing History and swindling the state legislature, and the tax paying citizens of Texas, into funding his research center.

Furthermore, the reporter, also a Rice alum, should have checked the facts (or rather, misinformation) being spewed by this professor. That's the least I would expect from a Senior Reporter in a Top-10 market.
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Re: Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#3 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:11 pm

To top it off our wonderful legislature forgot to fund this properly if I remember the story correctly, so it won't really be up and running till next hurricane season anyway. :roll: :roll:
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Re: Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#4 Postby Stratosphere747 » Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:21 pm

I guess I'm looking at this much differently. While I understand being peeved at some of the misleading comments. I applaud that our state is trying to take some proactive measures from an emergency response angle.

The center's research areas include:

• severe storm and hurricane research and storm surge prediction

• radar-based rainfall and flood warning systems for urban and coastal areas

• state-of-the-art educational programs for workforce training and public awareness

• infrastructure risk assessment for sheltering and evacuation from disaster

• evacuation plans linked to the best warning and transportation systems, and societal needs.


Here we are complaining about the federal government not fully funding the NHC on a variety of areas, but Texas is taking certain steps to take care of herself and be a step ahead. Nothing we can do about forecasting on a state level IMO, but we can certainly be a leader in the emergency response level, before that level is actually needed.
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Re: Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#5 Postby Aslkahuna » Fri Jun 22, 2007 3:13 am

Better the States step up to the plate as the Federal Government has proven itself as being incapable and incompetent when it comes toe disaster response on a large scale.

Steve
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Re: Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#6 Postby artist » Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:00 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:I guess I'm looking at this much differently. While I understand being peeved at some of the misleading comments. I applaud that our state is trying to take some proactive measures from an emergency response angle.

The center's research areas include:

• severe storm and hurricane research and storm surge prediction

• radar-based rainfall and flood warning systems for urban and coastal areas

• state-of-the-art educational programs for workforce training and public awareness

• infrastructure risk assessment for sheltering and evacuation from disaster

• evacuation plans linked to the best warning and transportation systems, and societal needs.


Here we are complaining about the federal government not fully funding the NHC on a variety of areas, but Texas is taking certain steps to take care of herself and be a step ahead. Nothing we can do about forecasting on a state level IMO, but we can certainly be a leader in the emergency response level, before that level is actually needed.

I think it would have been better spent helping to inform the public, being ready statewide if another Rita, Katrina, etc. were to hit. I think Fl. really should be a model in how to be prepared.
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#7 Postby jasons2k » Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:14 am

I agree Steve and Stratos, some of the items in here are helpful/proactive.

But a lot of it is either redundant or leaves you scratching your head, such as "international border issues". What's that about? What does that have to do with storm prediction?

We have a state legislature with a huge budget *surplus* but then tells us they don't have enough money to build/widen roads or fund the state park system. Then they go off and create additional state agencies?!?! It makes no sense.
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Re: Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#8 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:50 am

Jason, first off if you believe this new center is a state agency ... it's not. It's a joint academic/private sector creation that will no doubt seek funding as much as possible, especially considering that it is -- what we who work in the legislative affairs biz call -- an "unfunded mandate."

The UT-Brownsville work on "international border issues" is indeed curious. My guess is that the work there will involve planning for scenarios where a major storm severely impacts the Mexican side of the border and how would Texas respond with a mass influx of evacuees/refugees in the Brownsville area.

As one who was intimately involved in the Texas response to Katrina/Rita, I can assure you that a lot more sensible planning is needed. The state has made some positive strides in that direction since then ... but, we've got a ways to go.

The big question in my mind is: will this new center try to recruit our own S2K experts like Jeff in Houston, AirForceMet, or Wxman 57??!! :lol:
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Re: Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#9 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:38 am

I think it would have been better spent helping to inform the public, being ready statewide if another Rita, Katrina, etc. were to hit. I think Fl. really should be a model in how to be prepared.


Hurricane Andrew was our wake up call. Ever since, people have taken hurricanes much more serious.

I don't know if SSPEED is somebody's pork or not but if it is, it is a lot better than some of the things that get passed for funding. At least it is something for the safety of people and not a purchase of land for a project so somebody's cousin can have their property value increase!

Tropicwatch

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Re: Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#10 Postby artist » Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:03 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:
I think it would have been better spent helping to inform the public, being ready statewide if another Rita, Katrina, etc. were to hit. I think Fl. really should be a model in how to be prepared.


Hurricane Andrew was our wake up call. Ever since, people have taken hurricanes much more serious.

I don't know if SSPEED is somebody's pork or not but if it is, it is a lot better than some of the things that get passed for funding. At least it is something for the safety of people and not a purchase of land for a project so somebody's cousin can have their property value increase!

Tropicwatch


turns out it is a private venture
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Re: Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#11 Postby jeff » Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:54 pm

A few hidden agendas are within this center...caution should be used as the person running the show at Rice I believe is going a little too far. Myself and a few NWS folks are somewhat wary of the whole idea. The last thing this area needs is another "center" making any kind of forecasting or evacuation suggestions. It is hard enough getting people to listen to one source and adding another could very well be a big problem. There is already HGAC dealing is many of these issues and the WRC for the public side...not sure if it is mentioned here but there is a public service center going along with the SPEED center which to me, we already have and should be untilized better. There has been very little imput from local govt, state, and federal persons and yet this idea seems to be moving forward fairly quickly. There is already a flood ALERT system in Harris County and flood warning capabilities are the sole responsibility of the local NWS offices and should NOT be in any way the responsibility of such a center. If research is their main topic of interest then go for it, but if taking over warning and decision making from those who currently have it is a goal, we should be concerned...
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#12 Postby jasons2k » Fri Jun 22, 2007 1:37 pm

Jeff, thank you for the clarity. The reasons you have outlined are the root of my concern. Research is good, but as you pointed out, the overlapping responsibilities, along with a stated purpose of issuing their own warnings, evacuation recommendations, etc., I think will confuse the general public.

For example, I thought the whole idea of this new "Zone 1, 2, & 3" evacuation plan and creating a regional evacuation czar appointed by the Gov'na was supposed to take care of that part. Now this "center" is also going to issue evacuation recommendations? In summary - yes - I think this is getting pushed through a bit quickly without much oversight/foresight.

Also, as David pointed out, state funds have not *yet* been approved for it, which leads me to believe at some point state money (i.e., taxpayer dollars that could be spent on roads or education) will be used in the future.
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Re: Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#13 Postby Portastorm » Fri Jun 22, 2007 3:44 pm

I did some legislative research this afternoon on HB 1493 -- the bill creating this center. There is no state appropriation to the center for the next biennium (2007-2008) so no *new* state funds will be used. The local area council of government (COG) however (Houston-Galveston) did estimate incurring an annual cost of roughly $50,000 for their involvement in helping establish and administer the center.

I'm not sure if a previous poster meant this venture ... but it is NOT a private venture. It appears to involve mostly various forms of local, state, and federal government entities. How it is to work with existing entities -- as Jeff and Jason point out -- remains unclear. I certainly can understand your uneasiness. Multiple "voices" during emergency situations are a very bad thing.
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Re: Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#14 Postby Berwick Bay » Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:00 pm

Jschlitz, I must very respectfully disagree with you about New Orleans having "ample warning". I believe that 72 hours was mentioned. This however, is not correct. 48 hours is much closer to the truth. I followed this storm very closely, and the NHC was forecasting the Appalachicola area for landfall until about 48 hours before the event. I went back to the archive to get the numbers. Here is the Forecast Advisory for Katrina at aprox 72 hours before landfall (advisory on Fri Morning--landfall on Mon Morning). Note the forecast for landfall at about 85.5 West. This is in the state of Fl. Now if you check the 48 hour advisory it was much closer. The essence of this topic is how much independence local forecasters should be given in tropical forecasting relative to the NHC. I think there is much ground here for discussion. The experience of Rita in La. is another good example. If you want, I could pull up the advisory archive on Rita and show you a greater margin for error at 72 hours (at that point the effects on the La. Coast were totally unexpected. And I know, we're talking about a cone, not a line. But for Katrina at 72 hours New Orleans might have been right at the edge of the cone. For Rita, SW La (Vermillion Parish--powerful surge) actually dropped out of the cone, before being put back in late (toward the edge--as landfall was always expected to be in Texas). Anyway here is the advisory archive for Katrina 72 hours before landfall showing best projected landfall somewhere between Panama City and Applachicola.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/ma ... .010.shtml?
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Re: Texas establishes tropical/severe storm research center

#15 Postby Berwick Bay » Fri Jun 22, 2007 10:21 pm

Okay, I went back and got the Forecast Advisory for Rita at 72 Hours before landfall. It shows a projected landfall SOUTH of Galveston. At that point the edge of the cone extended to extreme west La. while Vermillion Parish in SW La. (a little further east than Cameron) was dropped out of the cone. It was later put back in. My point is not to bash the NHC. Its just that I don't think you can give the NHC and A+ on either one. For Katrina, the NHC gets an A+ at about the 48 Hour mark. At 72 Hours before landfall, the grade on that forecast would have to be quite a bit lower. For Rita, the NHC grade would have to be considerably lower than A for both the 72 Hour and 48 Hour forecasts. So if some would like to see a "local" voice thrown into the mix along with the official govt. forecast (NHC), then I think that whether you agree or not, they do have something of an argument. Here's the 72 Hours out forcast for Rita showing landfall WELL south of Galveston, and not in La. as actually occured.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/ma ... .014.shtml?
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