Low press. off/on FL coast

[Weatherfreak14]

The lastest GFS model has shown a possible system forming off the coast of the carolinias this coming thursdat., Looking like a weak low pressure moveing up the carolinia coast and seems to sit off the coast into friday.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007061718&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Stephanie]

After the 90+ temps we'll be getting, it'll be nice to get that rain!

[Meso]

It's not the only model showing this :

Nogap 72 hours : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ngp/20 ... /slp12.png

CMC 84 hours : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/20 ... /slp14.png

Loops of these models : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Weatherfreak000]

72 Hours out with three model consensus is fairly solid...

If we get another 24 hours of consistent model guidance on this.... might be interesting.

[Meso]

Add the UKmet : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/20 ... /slp11.png
Although it doesn't really deepen it and loses it after about 100 hours

12z GFS 144 hours : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp24.png
Although it does form before that time,it remains rather stationary.

Nam 06z 84 hours : http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif
You can see the low pressure moving east over florida

ECMWF 00z 72 hours : http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif


Well it appears every model is showing something... question is WHAT will this turn into,I think

[ronjon]

Add in the 00Z CMC and NOGAPs with low pressure development. Judging from the models, the NAM & NOGAPs develop low pressure in the NE GOM. The CMC, UKMET, and GFS develop the system in the Atlantic off the Georgia or NE FL coast. Many of the models start the system off as a cold core and transition it to shallow warm core. THe NAM & NOGAPS which show GOM development start the system as warm core. Might get interesting the next couple of days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 00/61.html" target="_blank

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/82.html" target="_blank

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/58.html" target="_blank

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 00/80.html" target="_blank

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 06/10.html" target="_blank

[Weatherfreak14]

yes, i truely feel by the end of thursday we might have something to look at off the EC, most to all models now are agreeing with this scenario.

['CaneFreak]

The only problem I see is SSTs...the water off of the eastern Seaboard is running well below normal and probably has the coolest water in the whole Atlantic region right now..so..who knows....

[Weatherfreak000]

On the contrary, SST's off the Eastern Seaboard have indeed been low, but have increased somewhat to near normal levels going into today.



CMC is seemingly developing a weak TS

UKMET is nearing the time frame, it appears to be showing a good setup for the system to form off the EC, but it isn't certain.

NGAPS has been a solid player in this for a while, it's forecasting development into I assume a Depression and crosses that over Florida and near the Bahamas in 144 Hrs.

An interesting scenario that is, the water there is steadily getting a little warmer...could see the strongest system possible given that scenario, shear is always uncertain that far out.

GFS seems to have the worst scenario..it indeed has low pressure present, but keeps it mostly over land and halts further development for a period.


Damn, even the NAM is in on the consensus right now by showing a NGAPS friendly scenario.


I think for the first time this year we're seeing tight model consensus on tropical development, i'm thinking Chantal may be here...way sooner then we think.

Any mets have their opinions?

[boca]

It seems all the models have something crossing Florida except for the MM5 model has Oct 2006.

[ronjon]

Interesting NAM scenario - the 06z and 12Z runs break off a piece of energy in the NE GOM and leave it spinning slowly to the W-NW. Can't really buy into this yet since the NOGAPs only supports it, but things may get going here on either side of FL with all the global model support.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[boca]

Interesting NAM scenario - the 06z and 12Z runs break off a piece of energy in the NE GOM and leave it spinning slowly to the W-NW. Can't really buy into this yet since the NOGAPs only supports it, but things may get going here on either side of FL with all the global model support.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml" target="_blank

The NAM picked up on Barry so maybe the model is not so out there anymore.

[flwxwatcher]

The last several models runs have been dropping some mid level energy in the vicinity ( east /west) of Florida .. Interesting to see how this plays out.. One thing seems certain, parts of the SE will get some much needed rainfall

[Cyclone1]

Wow, this is cool. And yes, we do need the rain. Maybe not southern Florida, but here in west central Florida, we could use it.

[windstorm99]

Nogaps model picking up some development and has a weak low of central florida.

Nogaps @ 84hrs

[Windsurfer_NYC]

The 12Z runs of the Canadian, NOGAPS & UKMet continue the trend, spinning a Low off the coast of GA southeastward along the eastern FL coastline. The CMC & NOGAPS then send it off into the Atlantic, while the UKMet fashizzles it out like prior runs....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[flwxwatcher]

Latest EURO has weak low near Western Florida in 72 Hrs .

http://www.ecmwf.int

[Wolfray1]

Our local met (WRAL) says this will slide out into the Atlantic. No problems for the east coast according to them.....

[Dynamic]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURN FLOW FROM THIS HIGH DOMINATES THE GULF OF
MEXICO. RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 30N...THUS 10-20 KT SELY TO SLY
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. ON SHORE FLOW IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MEXICAN GULF COAST W OF 94W AND THE
ENTIRE N GULF COAST FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 30N97W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
OF MEXICO. EXPECT...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER S GEORGIA NEAR
32N82W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

[Farseer]

Does this show the upper low dropping down into the GOM? There looks to be a pretty nice spin over Mobile heading SE.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=MOB&loop=yes