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Moderator: S2k Moderators
WWPK20 OPKC 171037
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR MET AREA IX VALID FOR
24 HOURS COMMENCING 0900UTC DATED 17-06-2007 BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL
DEPARTMENT.
PART -I: MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER WEST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
PART - II: NO ALERT MESSAGE
PART -III: FORECASTS:
SUB AREA NO.1 NORTH ARABIAN SEA
I. WIND : SE/SW’LY 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20KTS
II. WEATHER : PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING.
III. VISIBILITY : MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN HAZE.
IV. STATE OF SEA : SLIGHT/MODERATE.
SUB AREA NO. 2 GULF OF OMAN
I. WIND : NE/SW’LY 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20KTS.
II. WEATHER : PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CHANCE OF
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM.
III. VISIBILITY : MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN RAIN.
IV. STATE OF SEA : SLIGHT/ MODERATE.
SUB AREA NO. 3 CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE, 12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E,
20ºN/67ºE)
I. WIND : SW’LY 20-25KTS GUSTING 33KTS.
II WEATHER : CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
III. VISIBILITY : MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN RAIN
IV. STATE OF SEA : MODERATE/ROUGH OCC’NLY VERY ROUGH
SUB AREA NO. 4 GULF OF ADEN
I. WIND : W/SW'LY 20-25KTS GUSTING 33KTS.
II WEATHER : PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF
RAIN.
III. VISIBILITY : MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN RAIN
IV. STATE OF SEA : MODERATE/ROUGH OCC’NLY VERY ROUGH
Code: Select all
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5N
61.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED, QUASI-STATIONARY LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND 20-30 KNOTS OF DIFFLUENT, EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED ABOUT 90NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.6N 90.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 165 NM WEST OF THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR A
DEVELOPING MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY,
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA SHOW 1.5 MB PRESSURE FALLS
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED
BY DIFFLUENT FLOW, HOWEVER, A STRONG TROPICAL EASTERLY JET IS
CONTRIBUTING TO 20-30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
Code: Select all
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N
90.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 89.E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF
THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS. A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BECOME APPARENT ON RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE THE LLCC WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED, IN THE
PAST THREE HOURS, CONVECTION HAS BEGUN DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE DISURBANCE. BASED ON AN OLDER QUIKSCAT
PASS AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL
ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT BLAIR CONTINUE TO SHOW A 2.0 MB SLP
FALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS ON THE
ORDER OF 30 KTS OVER THE SYSTEM, WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE HELPING TO
FUEL DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
FQIN01 DEMS 201800
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 12 HOURS.FROM 20/06/ 2007 1800 UTC 20 JUNE 2007
===============================================================
PART -I : NO STORM WARNING (.)
PART II : THE WELL MARK LOPAR OVER E C BAYNOW LIES OVER EC ADJ WC
BAY (.) SYTEM IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION (.)
THE OFF SHORE TROUGH AT SL FROM GUJ COAST TO LKDP AREA
PERSISTS (.)
WEATHER SEASONAL OVER REST MET AREA (VIII) (.)
PART III : FORECAST
ARB : A1 ARABIAN SEA EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N AND W OF 80 DEG.E
I) WIND : SW/W 20/25 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY : POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA :ROUGH (.)
ARB : A2 : ARABIAN SEA N OF 10 DEG.N (.)
I) WIND :SW/W 25/30 KTS (.)
II) WEATHER : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY L: POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH (.)
BOB :A3:BAY OF BENGAL EQUATOR TO 10 DEG.N AND E OF 80 DEG.E (.)
I) WIND :MAINLY SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II) WEATEHR : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III) VISIBILITY : POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA : MODERATE TO ROUGH (.)
BOB A4 : BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG.N (.)
I) WIND : SW-LY 15/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC TO N OF LAT 14 DEG.N.(.)
II) WEATER : WIDESPREAD TO THE S OF 18 DEG.N.(.)
REST AREA ISOLATED(.)
III) VISIBILTY : POOR IN RA/TS (.)
IV) STATE OF SEA : SLIGHT TO MODERATE (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
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