Atlantic INVEST 93L: W Africa

[Chacor]

4th INVEST of the season.

[windstorm99]

Here we again folks....Nice blow-up near the center.

[Chacor]

Rather broad circulation:



Unfortunately, the latest QSCAT missed it.

[HURAKAN]

It will be a very interesting TWO tonight!!!

[Beam]

Very interesting. Almost appears to be a depression already. If it's named before Monday, we'll be at an all-time record pace for development.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Very very interesting. Also to note normally a wave/distrabance once off Africa will poof even in the depth of the season. This refired, in if things remain favorable enough for it; I would seriously watch this system. Yes the shear is not perfect, also if it go's to far north the sst's won't support it. But as long as development like this keeps up, I give it a fair chance of becoming a cyclone. Now once it moves pass 40 west thats another story.

[windstorm99]

Iam not sure what some of you are looking at but the shear maps ive been seeing tonight indicate pretty favorable upper level winds in its path at least threw 36hrs out.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

8-15 knot shear is pretty favorable, super favorable knowing what time of year this is. I give this if current trends keep up a 60 percent chance of becoming a cyclone. Things to be watchful of is the SAL-dry air, also if it moves north of 11 north; the sst's won't be able to support it any more. Pretty much I expect this system to stay south of that. So it will have a few days to develop, if the sal-dry air doe's not kill it.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7shr.html

[feederband]

How does the greek alphabet go again?

[x-y-no]

Pretty freaky to have an invest way out there this early ...

Looks darn good, too.

[Hyperstorm]

Big props to Dean4storms for noticing the impressive nature of this system last night when it was still over land.

The system is quite powerful for so early in the season. In fact, its satellite presentation reminds me of TD #2 in 2000. I think this system has potential to surprise many and become a tropical depression during the next 24-36 hours. Water temperatures are above 80* right in the path of this system below 10N. Also, upper-level winds, while strong out of the east, are not prohibitive for development. The system, though, is moving quite fast (possibly more than 25 mph) and this is likely the most significant factor going against its development. Once the system gets to the Central and Western Atlantic, conditions could become less favorable (wind-wise) for continued development (similar to TDs in 2000-2003), so it could very well be short-lived.

The likely determining factor for development during the short term would be a persistence of the current cluster of convection and/or a stronger blow-up, while we go through the nocturnal maxima. If tomorrow morning we see strong convection around the mid-low level circulation, it's likely we'll see it being classified during the afternoon or evening hours tomorrow as that will give the gasoline to the engine. That's all we need to look for tonight...PERSISTENCE.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 12/67.html

[dixiebreeze]

No recurve. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/

[vaffie]

Wow, June 9th, that's just crazy to have an invest off the coast of Africa. It looks so healthy too! Surely it couldn't make it across the Atlantic just like that. That would just be too weird. I'm stunned.

[MWatkins]

Quikscat from this evening is impressive...but looks very elongated northeast to southwest...

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png

But....there is a well defined west wind...on the SW side...

MW

[Cyclenall]

I'm going to give this a 35% chance of becoming the next tropical cyclone of the season. If it still looks like this tomorrow morning, then 65%.

[Nimbus]

Might technically become a TD but I doubt it will be Chantal. Would the NHC be less likely to upgrade this system because of the marginal prospects?

[HURAKAN]

10/0000 UTC 8.2N 18.6W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

Dvorak is already noticing!!!

[sevenleft]

10/0000 UTC 8.2N 18.6W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

Dvorak is already noticing!!!

Well, it has a closed circulation. But it's cloud pattern is too weak to analyze.

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm thinking the previous topic came first...


We really need to decide on posting in ONE topic here people, a mod should come and lock this topic.


No offense to the topic creator.