INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[Aric Dunn]

Skysummit I see what your seeing missing Florida to the SE and nailing the Bahamas. This system is moving ENE not north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

sorry to tell everyone this ...but anything at the surface right now is not moving very much in any direction .. there are most likely multiple swirls in there .. anywhere from just off shore Honduras to just offshore northern believe ..... the low level circ ( if you could track any one praticular area.. ) is in that general area.. its not under that burst of convection... its not heading ene over the Bahamas .. everything that you see moving is in the mid a upper levels.. !! all data suggests I repeat the LLC ( broad LLC) is still in the vicinity of 19 to 19.6 n and still relatively near the coast of belize........

Truthfully the NRL has the center at 19.5 north/85.1 west...Which is just under the southwest edge of convection. THERE IS A VERY VERY BROAD LLC/Low pressure area from 83-89 west and from 17-23 north through out the area. But That area near the convection is the area to watch. Also the shear/trough is moving eastward which is cutting off how far to the west this could track northward. I don't think it could track any farther then maybe the Keys or maybe the area Charley hit as its going across.

that trough upper low shear what ever you want to refer it as .. is cutting off and may not move much at all ..... no east no west less likely north and south... so right now .. we have some issues we need to watch.. first off that cut off ULL.. is the big player!! overnight will be the time to watch what happens with it..

[hurricanefloyd5]

two things one that means it still could become barry and two it could also miss the trough and stil could bring heavy rains to the drought stricken florida am I right??????!!!!!!!!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

the is a very crude drawing .. but that is still where the broad low is near... with multiple swirls rotating around ..

[boca]

The area which is moving ENE is just one low area, I see another emerging off the coast of Honduras. Aric Dunn I see your point.

[Aric Dunn]

two things one that means it still could become barry and two it could also miss the trough and stil could bring heavy rains to the drought stricken florida am I right??????!!!!!!!!!!!

barry is a big "?" mark .... less likely then lets say sub-tropical, but anything is always possible... i just remember going thru this same conversation it seems like last year with alberto

[Aric Dunn]

The area which is moving ENE is just one low area, I see another emerging off the coast of Honduras. Aric Dunn I see your point.

but not at the surface..... whats moving ene is in the mid levels....

[boca]

Honestly I'm wishing some good soaking rains over the Lake O here in S FL.

[hurricanefloyd5]

i hear da

[boca]

On the water vapor it looks like the ULL is moving SSE which would keep our low down south on a more north track I'm I correct?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

[Aric Dunn]

Im not sure right now.. but some new data is coming.. in ... we may be losing what ever low down there entirely .. need to wait another hour but this buoy norther carrib ... has a south wind .. that just throws everyhing off .. have to wait and see.. it may just be from the complex of storm ... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[Aric Dunn]

On the water vapor it looks like the ULL is moving SSE which would keep our low down south on a more north track I'm I correct?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

actually what your seeing is the ULL possibly starting to close of or cut off.. and there is a pieces of energy swinging around the south side.. giving it the appearance of that.. focus on the central area... and run that loop

[boca]

On the water vapor it looks like the ULL is moving SSE which would keep our low down south on a more north track I'm I correct?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

actually what your seeing is the ULL possibly starting to close of or cut off.. and there is a pieces of energy swinging around the south side.. giving it the appearance of that.. focus on the central area... and run that loop

Ok I see the center of the ULL just off the coast of Louisiana not moving.

[djones65]

Actually Boca there is a upper level trough covering all of the western Gulf of Mexico with a few "twists" or vortmaxes along it. The most pronounced upper level circulation is just south of the LA coast SE of Lake Charles and appears to be nearly stationary or just drifting a bit westward. The trough is still digging over northern Mexico and is beginnng to weaken. This upper level trough is what is enhancing the upper level divergence over the SE Gulf and NW Caribbean and creating a nice environment for convection to flare up. The upper trough is forecast to move eastward and then northeastward across the Gulf and off the East coast over the weekend. Aric Dunn was commenting that this trough may not be strong enough or deep enough to eject the broad surface low pressure area which has also been suggested by some of the professional mets.
This upper trough will preclude a tropical cyclone from developing, but a subtropical cyclone is not out of the question.

[djones65]

If the upper trough dampens out and moves out over the weekend without picking up the low pressure area then it would have a better chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. HOWEVER, there would be very little upper level divergence to support convection and the low pressure area would gradually wind down. The ITCZ is being drawn northward over central america and I believe we will see a broad area of troughing and/or low pressure area over the western Caribbean and central america for the next several days regardless of what this system does. Florida will undoubtedly get a general soaking, hopefully without flash flooding. I personally believe that the surface circulation is still near the eastern tip of Yucatan based on northerly winds at Merida, MX, NE winds at Cancun, and southeast winds at buoy in NW Caribbean and the convective complex near western Cuba is a mid level vorticity center. If you look at the loops you can see the low clouds rotating cyclonically over the SW Gulf and over Yucatan suggesting a low level center must still be near the coast of Yucatan in my humble opinion.

[deltadog03]

I am wondering this possibility. The anti-cyclone that is over 92L is somewhat moving north with this system. It almost looks (very slightly) like the Upper trof is moving west in the gom. I wonder if the anti-cyclone can push just enough to pinch off the ull. This is a long shot, but the shear maps and WV somewhat shows this possibility.

[Aric Dunn]

Actually Boca there is a upper level trough covering all of the western Gulf of Mexico with a few "twists" or vortmaxes along it. The most pronounced upper level circulation is just south of the LA coast SE of Lake Charles and appears to be nearly stationary or just drifting a bit westward. The trough is still digging over northern Mexico and is beginnng to weaken. This upper level trough is what is enhancing the upper level divergence over the SE Gulf and NW Caribbean and creating a nice environment for convection to flare up. The upper trough is forecast to move eastward and then northeastward across the Gulf and off the East coast over the weekend. Aric Dunn was commenting that this trough may not be strong enough or deep enough to eject the broad surface low pressure area which has also been suggested by some of the professional mets.
This upper trough will preclude a tropical cyclone from developing, but a subtropical cyclone is not out of the question.

i agree with you in some respects .. but there is not much digging anywhere anymore.. that was i have been trying to get at .. we are in a bit of a blocking pattern.. the ULT that is cutting of into a ULL has been forecast to eject Ne'ward.. but im thinking its going to do it much slower ...... since its already behind schedule.. and from the looks of it the ULT over the Northern great planes is not moving either.. so there is not much of any movement going.. on . even the ridging off the Se us has stopped its eastward movement.. and that will help keep what ever left over surface feature in the carrib in place... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[Aric Dunn]

I am wondering this possibility. The anti-cyclone that is over 92L is somewhat moving north with this system. It almost looks (very slightly) like the Upper trof is moving west in the gom. I wonder if the anti-cyclone can push just enough to pinch off the ull. This is a long shot, but the shear maps and WV somewhat shows this possibility.

well actaully if that were to happen ... that would bring about a whole new ball game.. as long as there is still something at the surface....it would create an upper ridge possible over the system

[deltadog03]

signs of that might also being that this convection that has been moving north all evening is just about to where the "center" is believed to be!

[Mike Doran]

from my eyes. Barbara doesn't look good and there is a forecast now for rain for us here on the left coast on Monday. This may be the last time until late fall that the Pacific high isn't. And as it ends so does the sub tropical jet bringing moisture to this low. The SOI index is rising and should rise some more IMHO, but the moisture has to hit the left coast first before there is moisture in the CONUS for thunderstorms sufficient to bring about a near CONUS tropical storm.

[skysummit]

I'm now watching the blow up of convection to the south of the "original area of interest". This new area is pretty much right under high pressure. I think this area has a better shot than the original area of concern.