Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

[JonathanBelles]

Im one of those airheads lol

[flwxwatcher]

The 18Z NAM indicates low pressure developing off the coast of Columbia and generally moving N-NW over the next 84 hrs. The model has indicated this cyclogenesis now for the last two days. The NAM is generally a poor performer as it generates lots of phantom lows in the SW carribean. I think this time its on to something as I see a small CC low moving off the coast of eastern Panama near 11N-77.5W. It doesn't have much convection now. If the winds aloft relax a bit more, this will be something to watch over the next several days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Interesting to see some Disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean.. Like you said the NAM has been persistent the last several runs of developing something down there.. Of course this was taken with a grain of salt:):0.. The Canadian ( yawn) and now the UKMET are now developing something and bringing it into the Gulf.. Interesting to see the next few days if we do indeed get something to pop down there...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Cookiely]

http://redcross.tallytown.com/graphics/kbdi-01.png
We need something to develope that's for sure. If the rainy season is late this year we are in serious trouble.

[ronjon]

Convection really blowing up off the coast of S America this am. Models look like they are starting to come together. Of course, NAM is the most agressive now with a 1000 mb low developing. The CMC, NOGAPS, & UKMET all show weak low development in the western carribean with both CMC & UKMET having them in the SE GOM. Even the conservative Euro shows a weak low in the GOM in about a week.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7052600!!/

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[wxman57]

Every year it's the same thing in May/June. Model runs hint at possible development east of Nicaragua because of the naturally lower pressure there and slight increase in convection. Most of the time, the models are wrong. We may go another 2 months without the first tropical storm of the season.

[Aquawind]

We may go another 2 months without the first tropical storm of the season.

Ouch! I am visualizing numerous teenagers tearing up right now..

Your spot on of course.

[ronjon]

Every year it's the same thing in May/June. Model runs hint at possible development east of Nicaragua because of the naturally lower pressure there and slight increase in convection. Most of the time, the models are wrong. We may go another 2 months without the first tropical storm of the season.

Of course we probably won't see a storm the next two months according to long term statistics but what fun would this forum be then?? wxman57, I always respect your opinion but I know you really do not want a storm (it's just more work for you!)

[ronjon]

Interesting discussion on possible development this morning from HPC:

FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD... A NUMBER OF MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME
SRN PLAINS ENERGY PERHAPS IN COMBINATION WITH OTHER ENERGY OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO/NWRN CARIBBEAN MAY SUPPORT SOME TYPE OF SFC
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF/SERN CONUS. LOW PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH
A FEATURE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME DEPENDENCE UPON HOW THE TROF TO
THE N EVOLVES... FAVORS A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH SIMILAR TO THE
00Z/18Z ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WILL BE LOOKED AT CLOSER FOR AFTN
FINALS AS GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL ORIGINATE THIS SYSTEM
FROM A DISTURBANCE N AND NE OF PANAMA WHERE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
HINT OF CIRCULATION AND CURRENT CONVECTION. EARLY LOOK FAVORS A
UKMET SCENARIO BRINGING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN FL THEN NEWD.
WILL NOT DEPICT THIS UNTIL LATER EVALUATION.

[AJC3]

I will say this...after a quick look at the 00Z ECM/06Z GFS, the height falls beginning around day 5 in the GOMEX are an important change in the pattern for Florida - though not necessarily for TC formation. It's the first time this spring that I've seen a synoptic setup that could bring deep tropical moisture - PWAT on the order of 2 inches - up across most if not all of the state. Would make for a widespread convective event, possibly producing significant rainfall over a large area - something we need badly down here to start to put a dent in the drought conditions which have plagued the state for so long.

Now...having said that. let's wait a few days and see if we can get a day 2-3 forecast from the models that looks reasonably close to what the current guidance is suggesting.

[SouthFloridawx]

I will say this...after a quick look at the 00Z ECM/06Z GFS, the height falls beginning around day 5 in the GOMEX are an important change in the pattern for Florida - though not necessarily for TC formation. It's the first time this spring that I've seen a synoptic setup that could bring deep tropical moisture - PWAT on the order of 2 inches - up across most if not all of the state. Would make for a widespread convective event, possibly producing significant rainfall over a large area - something we need badly down here to start to put a dent in the drought conditions which have plagued the state for so long.

Now...having said that. let's wait a few days and see if we can get a day 2-3 forecast from the models that looks reasonably close to what the current guidance is suggesting.

I think its about time that I start reading the Melbourne Discussions, they are pretty informative and can be educational at the same time.

Being pretty much on the opposite side of the state, a little to far west to get much convection from the West Coast Sea Breeze. I get to watch the Cumulus form about 3-5 miles from my house and give the interior parts a little bit of the needed rain.

It's kind of ironic living in Florida and being in a drought...

Anyway, thanks for the good news and something to watch for.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Every year it's the same thing in May/June. Model runs hint at possible development east of Nicaragua because of the naturally lower pressure there and slight increase in convection. Most of the time, the models are wrong. We may go another 2 months without the first tropical storm of the season.

You mean second, right? Andrea was technically the first.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just did some quick research, and since 1995 (the start of the current active cycle), we have only had two seasons that didn't feature a named storm until August (2000 and 2004). Based on that, it seems like long term averages may actually not really apply to the current cycle we are in. Over the past 12 years, we have seen TC development before August 83% of the time. That is a pretty high percentage, IMO.

[AJC3]

Every year it's the same thing in May/June. Model runs hint at possible development east of Nicaragua because of the naturally lower pressure there and slight increase in convection. Most of the time, the models are wrong. We may go another 2 months without the first tropical storm of the season.

You mean second, right? Andrea was technically the first.

Nope, technically, Andrea was never a TC.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very Heavy Widespread Convection over the central Caribbean...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

Come on convection get pulled north into florida and put out those
fires and droughts.

[SouthFloridawx]

I just did some quick research, and since 1995 (the start of the current active cycle), we have only had two seasons that didn't feature a named storm until August (2000 and 2004). Based on that, it seems like long term averages may actually not really apply to the current cycle we are in. Over the past 12 years, we have seen TC development before June 83% of the time. That is a pretty high percentage, IMO.

Well lets see what we have going on in the month of June since 1995 then...

1995
- Hurricane Allison June 3rd - 6th
1996
- Tropical Storm Arthur June 17th - 21st
1997
- Subtropical Storm June 1st - 2nd
- Tropical Storm Ana June 30th - July 4th
1998
None
1999
- Tropical Storm Arlene June 11th - 18th
2000
None
2001
- Tropical Storm Allison June 5th - 17th
2002
- Tropical Storm Arthur June 14th - 16th
2003
- Tropical Storm Bill June 29th - July 2nd
2004
None
2005
- Tropical Storm Arlene June 8th - 13th
- Tropical Storm Bret June 28th - June 30th
2006
Tropical Storm Alberto June 10th - 14th

9 Years with a Storm in June
3 Years with no Storms in June

75% Chance during the active cycle we have seen some development in June. So I'm thinking the odds are pretty good we'll see something tropical develop in the Atlantic in the next few weeks...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The meteorological and atmospheric synoptics may support
a potential system...over the next few weeks
Shear will be lessening, pressures are already low,
moisture is already abundant, and the convection is
very heavy.
If these factors come together...a rainy system,
and possibly a weak depression is possible in my opinion.

Additionally, the Caribbean waters are very warm...and able to
support a June system given reduced shear and abundant moisture.

[punkyg]

We may go another 2 months without the first tropical storm of the season.

Ouch! I am visualizing numerous teenagers tearing up right now..

Your spot on of course.

I"m a teenager and i'm not tearing up well not yet. joke

[Opal storm]

Convection is really bubbling today. This thing has been sitting down there for 5 days now, I'm starting to become a bit more interested in this area.

[Aquawind]

punkyg

He did say may.. I think we all know that it is unlikely we will go that long. It certainly is possible though.

Thanks for the input AJC3! I will have to check that out and will most certainly be watching.

[windstorm99]

Lets see if convection persists down there....

12z GFS has a low moving across cuba then moving into south florida.Hopefully maybe some much needed rainfall.