Remnants of Andrea-Thread 3

[JonathanBelles]

Thread 2 has reached 25 pages.

Thread 1: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 67&start=0
Thread 2: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 14&start=0

Here is the link to the prior two Andrea Threads.

[curtadams]

QuikScat has a 25kt barb now on the Decending pass with a few yellow barbs (20kts)
I dont know too much about QuikScat but does not show the 25kt barb on the Ascending pass.

What is the difference between the two passes? Altitude? Latitude?

If you're getting them from the same place I am there's something wrong with the data. The 01:42Z pass is *exactly* the same as the 19:12Z pass - down to the last barb. Looking at the NHC sat pages, the low is placed where that quickscat pass put it - when the low cloud motion has obviously been tracking the convection, which is moving briskly to the east. Is the current NHC analysis based on a bogus quickscat pass?

[JonathanBelles]

Im looking at this page:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/quikscat/

[cpdaman]

fact 789 can u give me a link to the quikscat pass you found (edit u just posted it)

because if i am not mistaken the lastest one i can find MAY 13 1:42 utc is actually data from MAY 11 around 1142 pm
i.e last nite around midnite u can see at the bottom the time -22 hours in addition to the correltation from UTC time to EST

the circulation on the "may 13 1:42 utc is located around 28.5 78.7

[JonathanBelles]

look at my last post.

[curtadams]

Yep, same place. If you look on the ocean page you get a different picture, although it's not possible to make out details due to scale. But it's obviously very different from the storm pass. The descending storm pass is entirely blank. Must be a software bug.

[cpdaman]

read my post at the bottom of the quikscat it says it is from a position 22 hours ago plus the hours to go from utc to EST (look under "3) data buffer is may 13 1:42 utc 2007 -22 hours"

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system still appears to have a close LLC near or under the convection. We will see, but if it was not upgraded this morning. I really really don't like its chances of being upgraded now.

[JonathanBelles]

So if I am reading you correctly that information is old?

[senorpepr]

QuikScat has a 25kt barb now on the Decending pass with a few yellow barbs (20kts)
I dont know too much about QuikScat but does not show the 25kt barb on the Ascending pass.

What is the difference between the two passes? Altitude? Latitude?

QuikScat is part of a polar-orbiting satellite. Instead of like GOES, where they remain positioned over one location, these satellite orbit the earth from pole to pole. The ascending pass is when the satellite goes from the South Pole to North Pole on the daylight side of the Earth. Then it becomes a descending pass, going from the North Pole to South Pole on the nighttime side of the Earth.

[curtadams]

*All* the pics have the "-22 hours", so it doesn't mean anything. Does anybody know what it's *supposed* to mean?

Going through the "previous wind vector" page, they are all coming in sets with identical data but varying timestamps. I though the stamp at top was supposed to give page creation time and the one at the bottom was supposed to give data origin time (the real time, as far as we're concerned). It's not working that way: everything is page creation. I don't see anything that gives the real data time.

[JonathanBelles]

Senorpepr: Ok. That makes it very clear. Everyone: Im sorry for the QuikScat scuttle. Im trying to learn.

[curtadams]

The system still appears to have a close LLC near or under the convection. We will see, but if it was not upgraded this morning. I really really don't like its chances of being upgraded now.

Don't be so sure. I think the NHC is using the quickscat passes to place the LLCs and isn't aware something is wrong with the timestamps. Franklin's comment that the convection is E of the LLC is very odd because both shortwave and the oceanic quickscat show it's very close. If the NHC has been using old quickscat data - without being aware it's old because of the timestamps - then all their analyses are showing the LLC very remote from the obvious MLC/ULC and of course they haven't upgraded. That's not because they'd disagree with our assessments of what we're seeing, but because they're using mistimestamped data.

[HurricaneHunter914]

This thing will not give up. More convection is near the center. NHC might just upgrade it tmorrow if she remains like that.

[Chacor]

040
WHXX01 KWBC 130048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC SUN MAY 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE ANDREA (AL012007) 20070513 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070513 0000 070513 1200 070514 0000 070514 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.6N 77.0W 30.3N 75.2W 30.5N 71.6W 30.0N 68.0W
BAMD 29.6N 77.0W 31.0N 74.5W 32.4N 69.1W 34.3N 61.3W
BAMM 29.6N 77.0W 30.5N 74.8W 31.2N 70.4W 31.7N 64.3W
LBAR 29.6N 77.0W 30.8N 74.4W 32.4N 70.1W 34.4N 64.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070515 0000 070516 0000 070517 0000 070518 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.7N 63.3W 28.0N 55.7W 27.2N 54.8W 28.0N 56.4W
BAMD 38.2N 53.5W 46.7N 45.9W 54.5N 34.2W 58.7N 10.6W
BAMM 33.1N 56.1W 41.8N 42.5W 50.0N 36.9W 57.5N 26.9W
LBAR 36.6N 57.2W 41.5N 47.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 41KTS 27KTS 0KTS
DSHP 48KTS 41KTS 27KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.6N LONCUR = 77.0W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 29.1N LONM12 = 78.5W DIRM12 = 49DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 28.5N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its being kicked out now, the LLC is on the western side of the convection, but expect some strengthing over the next 6 hours before it makes cooler water.

[curtadams]

Its being kicked out now, the LLC is on the western side of the convection, but expect some strengthing over the next 6 hours before it makes cooler water.

How can you tell? I can't identify an LLC even on shortwave. Some arcs to the S look like the LLC is under the cloud cover, but it's hard to be sure.

[brunota2003]

Yea, I dont see anything that resembles a LLC...I see a small ball of convection, and that is it...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Near 29.8 north/76.5 or so west. Give or take. A broad MLC and possibly LLC. Nice convection trying to form over it. Look at the satellite which is placed over the Gulf.

I just got down going through the 22 page Isacc page. This storm has gotten way more discussion then it ever did. Heck for most of Andrea life it has looked better to, Isaac for a short time was a a hurricane, yes, but this sysem is just interesting.

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also you see a upper low coming over southern Florida,,,Which is whats kicking this storm out to sea.