Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

[Chacor]

From an hour ago.

[Opal storm]

What's with that blob just E of the Bahamas?

[HURAKAN]

A question:

If this is upgraded to tropical depression, and doesn't intensity more than that during its 2nd time around, at the end it will be remembered as STS Andrea even though she was tropical at one point?

[Chacor]

Good question. See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Subtr ... g_issue.3F

David Roth of the HPC seems to believe they'll call it an STS in the TCR if that happens.

[Thunder44]

The only things that makes think they won't upgraded this storm this afternoon is that the center partially removed from the convection at this time.

[Dynamic]

532
WHXX01 KWBC 121318
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1318 UTC SAT MAY 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE ANDREA (AL012007) 20070512 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070512 1200 070513 0000 070513 1200 070514 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 78.6W 29.5N 77.5W 29.7N 75.6W 29.6N 72.4W
BAMD 29.0N 78.6W 30.0N 77.5W 31.0N 74.9W 31.9N 69.1W
BAMM 29.0N 78.6W 29.8N 77.6W 30.4N 75.5W 30.7N 70.7W
LBAR 29.0N 78.6W 30.2N 77.0W 31.7N 74.4W 33.4N 70.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070514 1200 070515 1200 070516 1200 070517 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.7N 69.3W 26.6N 64.0W 26.4N 63.7W 30.8N 65.0W
BAMD 33.7N 59.8W 43.2N 48.7W 51.4N 42.2W 59.6N 29.6W
BAMM 30.9N 62.7W 37.7N 45.6W 47.1N 40.6W 55.7N 26.1W
LBAR 35.1N 64.0W 39.2N 48.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 43KTS 25KTS 0KTS
DSHP 48KTS 43KTS 25KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.0N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 28.5N LONM12 = 79.2W DIRM12 = 69DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 28.7N LONM24 = 79.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[curtadams]

The only things that makes think they won't upgraded this storm this afternoon is that the center partially removed from the convection at this time.

That's normal for tropical depressions. If convection is both centered and consistent it doesn't stay a TD. 25 kt Quickscat, clearly closed circulation, active convection, good outflow (and hence good inflow - conservation of matter and all that) - how can you not call this a TD?

[Dynamic]

[CrazyC83]

Resource issues? Could that be because they budget such for during hurricane season, and have to use 2006 leftovers to fund early flights? (Not that I know, that is just my guess)

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1005 MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST AT 12/1500 UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. ONCE
AGAIN...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.

http://www.hwn.org/data/TWDAT.html


The 2:05 PM EDT Special Feature segment of the TPC discussion.

[cpdaman]

are the remnants supposed to move out slowly or fast after tomorrow

[cycloneye]

12/1745 UTC 29.6N 78.2W T1.5/1.5 ANDREA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Thunder44]

18:15 UTC sat image shows a nice flare-up of thunderstorms near the center you can also see this on radar as well:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[HurricaneHunter914]

True, but convection from earlier this morning has fizzled out. If the convection from this morning was still there, combined with this new burst, we would have TD Andrea by now.

[Thunder44]

True, but convection from earlier this morning has fizzled out. If the convection from this morning was still there, combined with this new burst, we would have TD Andrea by now.

Yes, but this burst is more significant because it's occuring the dinural min rather then during the dinural max. It's indication that the center may be intensifing and sustain convection longer.

[Thunder44]

18z Models, no upgrade yet.

618
WHXX01 KWBC 121858
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1858 UTC SAT MAY 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE ANDREA (AL012007) 20070512 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070512 1800 070513 0600 070513 1800 070514 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.4N 78.2W 29.7N 77.0W 30.1N 74.4W 29.7N 70.8W
BAMD 29.4N 78.2W 30.6N 76.8W 31.7N 73.2W 32.9N 66.2W
BAMM 29.4N 78.2W 30.2N 77.0W 30.9N 73.6W 31.5N 67.1W
LBAR 29.4N 78.2W 30.4N 76.3W 31.9N 73.3W 33.4N 68.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 38KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070514 1800 070515 1800 070516 1800 070517 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.3N 65.9W 27.7N 55.7W 26.7N 52.8W 27.0N 54.6W
BAMD 35.8N 57.3W 45.3N 46.7W 54.1N 36.6W 59.9N 14.6W
BAMM 33.5N 57.7W 41.9N 45.3W 49.7N 40.5W 58.1N 34.9W
LBAR 35.4N 61.7W 42.4N 49.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 42KTS 28KTS 0KTS
DSHP 49KTS 42KTS 28KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.4N LONCUR = 78.2W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 28.8N LONM12 = 78.8W DIRM12 = 41DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 28.5N LONM24 = 79.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[drezee]

Short of this thing forming an eye...the NHC will likely not reclassifiy it to a TS.

[HURAKAN]

If this is not a TD, then the window of opportunity for Andrea to comeback is closing really fast.



Maybe the NHC is looking for something like this!!!

[Scott_inVA]

Back with more freebie model maps on "Andrea" at my blog until Ptremium Service resumes later this month:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/blog.htm

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[HurricaneHunter914]

Hurry NHC! Andrea really wants your attention now! If this isn't a TD then I don't know what it is.