Strong wave emerges africa

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 6:18 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GVAC.html

It is moving west with maybe a weak low pressure around 8n 20w but as we know it is too early to see something develop that far but hummmm TD#2 formed in the eastern atlantic so let's follow this one to see if it fades away or it mantains it's own.That cape verde observation shows nothing abnormal on the pressures but the wind direction is from the north showing that well south of them there is a low pressure.

jabber · #2 Postby **jabber** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 7:49 am

Looks pretty nice.... lets see how she does marching west... cannot wait until August for these

GulfBreezer · #3 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 8:29 am

Pretty impressive pic for now........... we will see what happens!

chadtm80 · #4 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 8:37 am

Real good IR loop here :rarrow:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Colin · #5 Postby **Colin** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 8:54 am

Looks quite impressive! Wouldn't be surprised to see this thing develop into something! :o I'll keep my eyes on this over the next few days...

chadtm80 · #6 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 8:56 am

Shear maps http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... _Shear.htm

OtherHD · #7 Postby **OtherHD** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 9:32 am

Colin wrote:Looks quite impressive! Wouldn't be surprised to see this thing develop into something! :o I'll keep my eyes on this over the next few days...

It has a very tough road ahead of it. It's right on the edge of a large dry airmass, and just after Cape Verde is an area of strong shear....above 50 kts. Plus it's June...just not the time of the year for Cape Verde storms. I give it a 3-5% chance of development.

chadtm80 · #8 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 10:35 am

Guess there could be a small chance of developement, but if it were to happen it would be VERY SHORT LIVED

Colin · #9 Postby **Colin** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 11:09 am

OtherHD wrote:
Colin wrote:Looks quite impressive! Wouldn't be surprised to see this thing develop into something! :o I'll keep my eyes on this over the next few days...

It has a very tough road ahead of it. It's right on the edge of a large dry airmass, and just after Cape Verde is an area of strong shear....above 50 kts. Plus it's June...just not the time of the year for Cape Verde storms. I give it a 3-5% chance of development.

OH, OK... then forget that... but you never know... with this year and all the things that have happened with the weather I wouldn't be surprised if it DID develop... but I know it most likely won't.

southerngale · #10 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 11:09 am

Maybe it'll surprise us and do something.

Colin · #11 Postby **Colin** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 1:58 pm

Maybe, but I seriously doubt it...

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 3:22 pm

It will be tough for it to develop but TD#2 formed almost there so you never know but if it stays below 10n a slim chance may be for it.

southerngale · #13 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 3:40 pm

Colin wrote:Maybe, but I seriously doubt it...

Me too...just trying to send positive vibes that way.

chadtm80 · #14 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 6:05 pm

Looks as though the dry ari may be affecting it already

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 6:29 pm

Yep...the air is even drier than I thought. As it gets further west conditions only get much worse with the shear. Easy come easy go.

chadtm80 · #16 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 8:06 pm

Nice ball of convection near the coast again, but will die just as quickly as the last

#17 Postby **wx247** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 8:08 pm

Yeah, but it is very busy and if it keeps up soon we will have favorable conditions there and then -- look out. :o

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 8:08 pm

But it shows that so early the CV area will be prime this season as the train of waves is active.

#19 Postby **wx247** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 8:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:But it shows that so early the CV area will be prime this season as the train of waves is active.

We must think alike Luis. See my post :uarrow:

yours.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 20, 2003 8:32 pm

Wow yes at the same time Garrett we said almost the same thing.

Strong wave emerges africa

Strong wave emerges africa

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