April 1-7, 2007 Idea: A Fairly Temperate Start to April

[donsutherland1]

…Lovely flowers are springing;
Happy birds are singing,
On the fair green trees,
Waving in the breeze.
—Samuel Francis Smith’s “Spring Flowers”

Occasionally, April gets off to a snowy start in the East. On April 1, 1786, a storm dumped a swatch of snow a foot deep from New Jersey into New Hampshire. On April 1, 1924, a nor’easter blanketed Baltimore with 9.5 inches of snow. On April 1, 1993, la neige reigned supreme in Montreal, depositing a mantle of white 31.2 cm. (12.2”) thick. On April 1, 1997 Massachusetts residents awakened to 2 feet of snow in Boston and up to 33 inches of snow at Worcester.

However, those are exceptions to the rule. More often than not, as the poem states, “flowers are springing” and “happy birds are singing” as the milder regime of the advancing season grows ever more entrenched. April 2007 is likely to see a dose of cooler air during its first week, but it likely won’t be exceptional. Afterward, milder breezes should return fairly quickly. All in all, readings are likely to be fairly springlike in their averages across a large part of the United States and southern Canada for the week as a whole.

As a result, the largely barren look that has held sway in such areas as the Bronx Botanical Garden, Edwards Gardens, Longwood Gardens, and National Arboretum will see a gathering wave of color gradually overspreading the landscape. Later, in the weeks ahead, “fair green trees” will again be “waving in the breeze.” Perhaps, if the evolution of some past patterns similar to the current one is representative, after mid-month, the heat of summer’s fire, that has already scorched the Desert Southwest, will make its first foray into parts of the East.

In the East, there is a chance that parts of Upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine might see a little snow at some point during the first week of April. Farther south, especially across the northern Mid-Atlantic region and southward (including such cities as New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC), prospects for snowfall are quite low during that timeframe.

Elsewhere, the Central Plains, Northern Plains, and Great Lakes region (U.S. into Ontario) may be wetter than normal. There is a possibility of a widespread outbreak of severe weather from the Plains States into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region.

My thinking for the average temperature anomalies during the 4/1-7 period is as follows:

Average Regional Temperature Anomalies (4/1-7):
Northeast: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Mid-Atlantic: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Southeast: Somewhat above normal
Great Lakes: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Northern Plains: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Central Plains: Above normal
Southern Plains: Above normal
Pacific Northwest: Somewhat below normal to near normal
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: Somewhat above normal

For the major cities from Washington, DC to Boston, the 4/1-7 period is likely to feature:

- Nights generally in the 30s and 40s in Boston and 40s in New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.
- Days mainly in the 40s and 50s in Boston, and 50s and 60s in New York City and Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.
- One or two days with a high temperature of 65° or above in Philadelphia and Washington, DC.

In the Southeast, Atlanta will likely see highs generally in the 70s. Lows should generally be in the 50s. Elsewhere, Burlington will likely see highs mainly in the 40s. Lows should be mainly in the 20s and 30s. One or two days with highs in the 30s are possible.

Toronto: Most days will likely see highs in the 7.0°C to 15.0°C range (mid-40s and 50s). Nights will generally be in the -1.1°C to +3.9°C range (30s).

Occasional Historic Tidbit: The April 1849 Snowstorm: Strawberries and Snow in the South:

On April 15, 1849, amidst an unseasonably cold air mass that followed closely on the heels of very warm weather, snow fell across the Deep South. The snow fell in portions of Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

The April 26 issue of the Hartford Daily Courant wrote, “In South Carolina, on the 15th, while the people were eating fresh strawberries and green peas, they were treated to a severe snowstorm and weather so cold as to make ice.” The Camden Journal provided the following account of the snowfall at Camden:

It commenced with a slight fall early in the morning [of April 15], and continued to increase in quantity until two or three o’clock in the afternoon, when it fell in large flakes, as in mid-winter. The prospect of the green trees and the forests near the town, covered with snow, was as novel as it was beautiful to the admirer of nature’s works. The house-tops were covered with snow, which had not melted on Monday morning [morning of April 16]. A mid-winter scene in early spring is a sight that we do not remember to have seen at any former period.