TX Winter Wx Threat # 11-- sleet and snow in a lot of Tx/La

[Yankeegirl]

So what do you think about the severe weather potential for tomorrow?

[JenBayles]

That's what I'm interested in as well Yankee. Forget about the cold and non-existent frozen precip - we haven't had a good round of storms through here in... how long?

[Yankeegirl]

Well I am also going to post this in the USA weather forum... Not sure if this is included in the Winter Weather.... ?

[Yankeegirl]

Hey Jen, go look what EWG posted in the USA weather forum... I think that might answer your question about tomorrow! I think I am going to go shopping early tomorrow!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the latest from the NWS:

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. North wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.

And now here is the disappointing part (from the AFD)...

(ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
MIXED OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AIRMASS LOOKS TO
BE TOO DRY)



The only comfort is that we are still 3-4 days out, so things can change. Let's just hope some magical moisture can work it's way into the models and then into the forecast soon!

[Portastorm]

Eh EWG, I have been searching the model runs this morning in vain for said moisture. But alas ... nothing. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian all look dry for most of Texas.

So much for willing the weather!

What good is cold if it won't sleet or snow?!

Meanwhile, you SE Tx folks better buckle up later today. Looks like a fair chance of severe storms for your area.

[southerngale]

What good is cold if it won't sleet or snow?!

Exactly!

Well, at first, it's fine for a few fires in the fireplace, definitely makes Christmas better, but other than that......I get tired of putting on socks and shoes just to go outside. Bring on the flip-flops! lol. Now if there was some snow to accompany it... bring it on!

I can't imagine living up north where it's cold so much, and REALLY cold. I think that would get old real quick.

Anyway, NWS has come down quite a bit with our low Thursday morning. Unfortunately, no snow with it.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 28. North wind around 5 mph.

[stormraiser]

You ain't kiddin'. Man, I'm really starting to hate winter-- not that I ever really liked it. At least 6 months of cold gets old about mid October.

What good is cold if it won't sleet or snow?!

I get tired of putting on socks and shoes just to go outside. Bring on the flip-flops! lol. Now if there was some snow to accompany it... bring it on!

I can't imagine living up north where it's cold so much, and REALLY cold. I think that would get old real quick.

[double D]

Considering this "might" be our last cold shot of the season (according to the models), it would of been nice to see at least some flurries fall from the sky, oh well, maybe next year. Our time for winter weather is winding down, soon we will be in the usa forum discussing severe weather....the fun never stops.

[srainhoutx]

Eh EWG, I have been searching the model runs this morning in vain for said moisture. But alas ... nothing. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian all look dry for most of Texas.

So much for willing the weather!

What good is cold if it won't sleet or snow?!

Meanwhile, you SE Tx folks better buckle up later today. Looks like a fair chance of severe storms for your area.

as I posted yesterday, I am not sure that the models have picked up on the possibility of a Winter Weather Event just yet. Still a lot of impulses and moisture avaliable with STJ. We will have to wait and see how all of this plays out...


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

[Below N.O.]

Eh EWG, I have been searching the model runs this morning in vain for said moisture. But alas ... nothing. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian all look dry for most of Texas.

So much for willing the weather!

What good is cold if it won't sleet or snow?!

Meanwhile, you SE Tx folks better buckle up later today. Looks like a fair chance of severe storms for your area.

as I posted yesterday, I am not sure that the models have picked up on the possibility of a Winter Weather Event just yet. Still a lot of impulses and moisture avaliable with STJ. We will have to wait and see how all of this plays out...


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

That moisture plume looks good, it just may be a little to far surpressed into the gulf to do any good.

[Yankeegirl]

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 17
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CST MON FEB 12 2007

TORNADO WATCH 17 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC039-071-167-199-201-241-245-291-351-361-373-457-130500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0017.070212T2010Z-070213T0500Z/

TX
TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON
HARDIN HARRIS JASPER
JEFFERSON LIBERTY NEWTON
ORANGE POLK TYLER



And so it begins!!!

[TexasStooge]

Seems that the chances of winter weather is decreasing in coverage day by day for North and Central regions of Texas, but that doesn't change the fact that we're dropping harder into the 30s. Any snow that's gonna fall will be very small flakes and will cause little travel delays

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
103 PM CST MON FEB 12 2007

.AVIATION UPDATE...
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND...UNTIL THE SURFACE COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE MOVING
EAST OF BOTH THE METROPLEX AREA...AND THE WACO/TEMPLE AREA.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP IN THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. WESTERLY WINDS LATE TODAY WILL KICK THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG EASTWARD. #26

.PUBLIC UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO SHOW DECREASING
POPS WEST TO EAST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. HAVE ALSO
SHIFTED THE SEVERE THREAT A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS.

As for the Texas Panhandle, they're the ones getting all the snow. No Winter Weather Alerts have been issued for that area, but all that can change by Tuesday Night.

SHERMAN
Wednesday: 34°F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WICHITA FALLS
Tuesday Night: 25°F
Wednesday: 33°F
Wednesday Night: 21°F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AMARILLO
Tuesday Night: 16°F
Wednesday: 25°F
Wednesday Night: 15°F
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LUBBOCK
Tuesday Night: 24°F
Wednesday: 31°F
Wednesday Night: 20°F
Thursday: 40°F

[Extremeweatherguy]

VERY interesting Houston AFD this afternoon:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CST MON FEB 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WE SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE STRONG TSRAS SHORTLY. BUT THE OVERALL
THREAT EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING (ENDING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS/SFC DRYLINE). THE ADVERTISED FRONT
THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SE TX OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. CAA
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT (GIVEN THE CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM/COLD 85H TEMP
PROGS) FOR WED/THUR...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO FRI. AS THIS CANADIAN
1040MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SWD...OF SOME CONCERN ARE THE OFF/ON PROGS
OF DISTURBANCES OVERRIDING THE AIRMASS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMIT-
ED BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE ENOUGH A SHRA (OR TWO) EMBEDDED IN THE
RETURNING/PERSISTENT BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT. THIS COMBINED
WITH VERY CHILLY SFC TEMPS COULD MAKE FOR A BOUT OF "INTERESTING"
PCPN SHOULD WE EVEN GET SOME. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
GUIDANCE WILL OPT TO KEEP POPS LOW ATTM. SO LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD
THE FLATTISH BUT THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF LATE (MARKED BY THE SERIES
OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROFS AND THE PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT) TO
EVOLVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE LEFT COAST THIS WEEK
END. WE WILL LIKELY GET ANOTHER FROPA OUT OF THIS ON SAT..BUT THE
INCREASINGLY NNWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALSO CLEAR THE SKIES NICELY.
HOWEVER TROUBLE WILL BE BREWING IN THE FORM OF YET ANOTHER CLOSED
LOW DEEPENING BENEATH THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CALI BAJA.
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC
WILL HELP ERODE THE RIDGE AND BRING ABOUT THE RETURN OF THE OVER-
RUNNING CLOUDS LATE SUN/MON. AND SO OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF RAIN IS
NOT PROGGED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OR SO. 41

Looks like the NWS thinks there is still a chance we could see some light, isolated areas of "interesting" (wintry) precip. in our area next week. Should not be a major event, but it seems there is a chance at something.

[southerngale]

hmmm...that is interesting, but I refuse to get my hopes up, even a little, so...

[Portastorm]

hmmm...that is interesting, but I refuse to get my hopes up, even a little, so...

Yup southerngale ... I give up. I officially give up on winter. We're done in terms of wintry precip events ... and when I say we, I mean everyone south of Waco.

I haven't seen a drop of drizzle hinted in the GFS, Euro, or Canadian for south central Texas when it will be coldest. With moderating temps predicted for next week ... and it being the middle of February ... I think that's it.

Y'all will hear no more from Portastorm about potential wintry weather events until next winter season. (Portastorm packs away his football cleats and tells Lucy to take her football and go home until next fall.)

[gboudx]

I hear ya Porta. DFW has removed snow from the forecast for all but the far northwestern counties. The days are getting longer and the sun angle is climbing. The winter was kind to us DFW'ers with rain helping greatly with area lakes. But we need that to continue into Spring. I will approach each passing cold and cool day by remembering that it won't be long before we're in a 100+ degree dry spell.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Don't worry though, for those that still want hope...I will continue to be all over this one (even though I really am getting tired of winter).

I mean come on! If the NWS leaves a chance like that (saying wintry weather may be possible), then I am going to take it. Anytime we have a cloud deck and temperatures below 35, then I think there is at least a slight chance we could be surprised. Now I don't think we have another 1895 blizzard on the way, but I do think areas of flurries or sleet pellets or freezing drizzle could be possible Wed/Thurs night if the NWS forecast of mostly cloudy skies during the nighttime hours (with temps. in the lower 30s) is correct.

Let's keep hope alive people!

[southerngale]

[gboudx]

EWG, what do you mean next week? I thought the discussions were on the cold weather this Wed-Fri. Are you seeing something for next week too?