TX Winter Wx Threat # 11-- sleet and snow in a lot of Tx/La

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a look at the actual high temperatures in the Houston area today:

Hooks airport = 47

IAH = 48

Hobby airport = 50

Conroe = 46

Galveston = 50

Hard to believe that just 2-3 days ago the forecasts were calling for highs in the lower 60s for today! This really ended up being a much colder day than almost anyone expected.

[Ptarmigan]

Heard Tim Heller ABC 13 last evening mention Snow for all of N TX and possible wintry mix in SE TX... interesting

Hmmmmmmmm. Snow has fallen on St. Valentine's Day, like the blizzard in 1895.

[TexasStooge]

I knew there had to be just one more winter system squeezing in this state. In many ways, winter weather could be a blessing and a curse. Maybe this is our year to have the worst winter, judging from multiple winter systems coming and going every week.

The NWS has called for a mild day for North Texas with highs near 70 on Monday, so to those living there (including me), enjoy it while it lasts, because by Wednesday, we'll see a sharp decline in temperatures. I think us North Texans will see a rerun of Valentine's Day 2004 when we had 4 in. of snow.

DALLAS/FORT WORTH
Wednesday: 39°F
Wednesday Night: 29°F
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SHERMAN
Wednesday: 35°F
Wednesday Night: 27°F
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WICHITA FALLS
Tuesday Night: 27°F
Wednesday: 34°F
Wednesday Night: 23°F
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AMARILLO
Tuesday Night: 22°F
Wednesday: 26°F
Wednesday Night: 16°F
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AUSTIN
Wednesday Night: 33°F
Thursday: 46°F

Yes, the wintry system is spreading out as far as Austin.

[Extremeweatherguy]

0z GFS run still looks quite cold, but it is also quite a bit drier.

Seems like the temps. have been fairly consistantly cold with the runs, but the precip. has been what has flip-flopped a lot. Because of this, I think we can all safely say it is going to get cold, but the big question is...will there be precipitation? We probably will not know for sure for another few days. It really all depends on how the 500mb pattern sets up. If we get a SW flow, then we will see overrunning, but if it is W or NW, then it will likely be drier.

One thing that is important to note though is that the 0z run now shows IAH below freezing Thursday morning. This means that any precip. that did fall would be frozen, even for Houston (if this run's temperatures are correct).

[southerngale]

KFDM has lowered the high on Thursday to 38°

Yeah, I'm quoting myself. Just for comparison... the NWS:

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. East wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Monday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 64. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. North wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. North wind around 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow! Anyone notice the latest NWS forecast? They are now calling for 32 degrees and precipitation on Wednesday night for the north Houston area!

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.

I know it is 20% and the AFD says we might dry out before there is a chance, but still, 32+precip. at this forecast range is pretty significant.

[Johnny]

As of this morning, it looks like models have trended alot drier once the cold air is in place. Maybe the models are doing their usual back stroke...you know, show the precip and then lose it as the event grows nearer then bring it back? Then again, maybe not. lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest Canada update:

http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather ... ure_i1.png

http://www.weatherunderground.com/globa ... 71163.html

Temperatures are as cold as -41 up there this morning.

[double D]

As of this morning, it looks like models have trended alot drier once the cold air is in place. Maybe the models are doing their usual back stroke...you know, show the precip and then lose it as the event grows nearer then bring it back? Then again, maybe not. lol

Well this time Johnny, the flow will be coming out of the north and northwest, instead of the southwest. The northwest flow will tend to push all the available moisture out to sea. So if "anything" falls it will be very light and may not even reach the ground.

[Portastorm]

As of this morning, it looks like models have trended alot drier once the cold air is in place. Maybe the models are doing their usual back stroke...you know, show the precip and then lose it as the event grows nearer then bring it back? Then again, maybe not. lol

Well this time Johnny, the flow will be coming out of the north and northwest, instead of the southwest. The northwest flow will tend to push all the available moisture out to sea. So if "anything" falls it will be very light and may not even reach the ground.

Yup ... the Euro and the GFS runs (0z and 12z) are indeed drier ... colder ... but drier. I think its safe to say that our temps in Texas are going to be well below normal for several days later this week BUT ... sadly ... doesn't look like we'll see much, if any, frozen precip.

[srainhoutx]

As of this morning, it looks like models have trended alot drier once the cold air is in place. Maybe the models are doing their usual back stroke...you know, show the precip and then lose it as the event grows nearer then bring it back? Then again, maybe not. lol

Well this time Johnny, the flow will be coming out of the north and northwest, instead of the southwest. The northwest flow will tend to push all the available moisture out to sea. So if "anything" falls it will be very light and may not even reach the ground.

one thing to watch is the ULL west of CA diving SE and a plume of energy riding the STJ, SE of HI developing. Timing looks good for this "possible" Winter Weather Event. We will have to wait and see...


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

[Portastorm]

srainhoutx, you might be on to something ... the 12z Euro run is coming in now and looks somewhat "wetter" for Thursday than previous runs, although the moisture profiles at 850mb and 700mb appear to be better in west Texas through the Panhandle and across the Red River and then off the upper Texas coast.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

Looks better for areas like Lubbock, Amarillo, and maybe DFW even if the trend continues.

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx, you might be on to something ... the 12z Euro run is coming in now and looks somewhat "wetter" for Thursday than previous runs, although the moisture profiles at 850mb and 700mb appear to be better in west Texas through the Panhandle and across the Red River and then off the upper Texas coast.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

Looks better for areas like Lubbock, Amarillo, and maybe DFW even if the trend continues.

seem to remember models had a great deal of difficulty with the Jan 16th Event. It wasn't until about 24 hours out that things came into "some" agreement, but then models were too warm and moisture was underdone I believe

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest NWS forecast:

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Still looks very cold, but that big question continues to be Wednesday night for wintry precip. possibilities. I guess we will see what happens with the next few model runs..

[Yankeegirl]

I have 56 out here... I think I am higher than what the NWS is saying? Does look like tomorrow is going to be quite interesting... we now have a 70% chance of severe storms...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have 56 out here... I think I am higher than what the NWS is saying? Does look like tomorrow is going to be quite interesting... we now have a 70% chance of severe storms...

yes, tomorrow should be an interesting day. It will be much warmer and much more humid than this weekend with breezy south winds and that 70% chance of severe storms. Going to be a day to keep an eye to the sky.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow! It looks like the warm front has pushed back through Amarillo. They are currently 69 there!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=AMA

The strangest thing is I do not think they expected this to happen to the extent that it did. Their forecast high for today was 54 with a low of 38 tonight. Seems like this may have been somewhat of a surprise.

BTW, here is the hourly weather data: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KAMA.html
^^They have risen 26+ degrees in just four hours!^^

It is just very weird to see Amarillo this much warmer than us during the winter. That rarely happens.

[arizonasooner]

+26 degrees in 4 hours... That's downsloping winds for ya...

We had +41 degrees in 7 hours a week or so ago here in Tulsa. Springtime must not be too far around the corner!

[Below N.O.]

I'm glad we don't have those PRO METS posting on here anymore. They always seem to screw up a good chance of FRIGID COLD or SNOW potential.

I predict snow from Houston to New Orleans Wed thru Thur. and I will stand by my prediction! Don't look for the models to pick up on it till it's at your doorstep.

Below

[jeff]

Wow! It looks like the warm front has pushed back through Amarillo. They are currently 69 there!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=AMA

The strangest thing is I do not think they expected this to happen to the extent that it did. Their forecast high for today was 54 with a low of 38 tonight. Seems like this may have been somewhat of a surprise.

BTW, here is the hourly weather data: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KAMA.html
^^They have risen 26+ degrees in just four hours!^^

It is just very weird to see Amarillo this much warmer than us during the winter. That rarely happens.

In addition to the downsloping the sun is also peaking through...note the sky condition. Does not look like a warm frontal passage as the surface dewpoints have done little rising and S winds were established well before the temp. started to rise. Also temps to the south are colder...true developing warm front is off the TX coast. Between the breaks in the fog/low clouds and developing SW winds mixing out the low level inversion has resulted in the rapid warming.