Valentine eve's storm?

[Nimbus]

The latest GFS runs have started building a 1024 high over Maine. That could be the start of a blocking pattern, at least that is what I saw. As the runs evolve we may have to rename this thread.

[wolfray]

If we have the blocking high over Maine, would that mean a better change of snow further south? Such as the Carolina's.

[Nimbus]

Anyone have a link to the european model?

[sphinx]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/

http://meteocentre.com/models/modelsgem_e.html

Unfortunately, only professional mets have access to detailed output from the ECMWF model. The above sites can give you a flavor of what is going on. The first site is updated much more quickly than the later two but only shows information from day 3 to 10.

[Windtalker1]

I do not see any blocking Highs. In fact, I see Artic air ready to plundge southward along the east coast. There is a trailing upper-level low that is digging into the midwest at this time. Because of this, it is forcing the leading trough to take on a negative tilt around the mid Atlantic. The timing of the storm coming out of Texas for Tuesday and because of this negitive tilt in place, we can see BLIZZARD condictions through Philidelphia and Southern New England with snow fall amounts any where from 1-3 feet. Can you say "Valentines Day Blizzard of 2007" (information obtained from other weather sites)

[Nimbus]

The high pressure to the northeast of the storm will keep it from making a fast exit the way the previous coastal developments have.

The negative tilt should be enough to keep this a coast hugger. I agree, classic blizzard potential for New England. The forecast for the Carolinas will be influenced by how fast the low develops and also how much the storm wraps. A slower moving storm has more time to wrap. This scenario could pull down more cold air and leave the carolinas under the precipitation a little longer than the last few coastal storms.

[Fodie77]

we need donsutherland1 in here to impart some wisdom

[Windtalker1]

This can be a type of Storm that you tell your children if she slows to a crawl....I see nothing to push this out fast.

[JBG]

It also looks like it's starting later than before. It looks like more of a Valentine's Day storm than a Valentine's Day Eve storm.

That would break NYC area's "weekend storm" rule.

[Stephanie]

It also looks like it's starting later than before. It looks like more of a Valentine's Day storm than a Valentine's Day Eve storm.

That would break NYC area's "weekend storm" rule.

It's pretty much an East coast weekend storm rule. You're right, it will be a rarity.

[JBG]

It also looks like it's starting later than before. It looks like more of a Valentine's Day storm than a Valentine's Day Eve storm.

That would break NYC area's "weekend storm" rule.

It's pretty much an East coast weekend storm rule. You're right, it will be a rarity.

The "weekend rule" breaks down south of Philadelphia.

Also, in sleuthing New Yor Times articles I found a few midweek storms in 1982 of around 9 inches. Is this "rule" based on some measurement of accumulation, or must the storm be a Kocin-Uccinelli qualifying storm to count?

[Stephanie]

Most of the big storms that I remember were weekend storms, but not all.

I think that the rule is purely based on timing. It usually takes about 3 days for a storm to travel from the west coast to the east coast.