TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[double D]

Hmm..I think this front is much stronger than anyone expected today. The temperature has been dropping since this morning and is now 44 in Fredericksburg (10:00). Somehow I don't see us reaching the middle 60's today, we will be lucky to get out of the lower 50's.

I noticed that the NWS significantly dropped their afternoon highs for the hill county, they are now calling for a high of 50. Boy did the GFS bust big time or what.

[Portastorm]

Hmm..I think this front is much stronger than anyone expected today. The temperature has been dropping since this morning and is now 44 in Fredericksburg (10:00). Somehow I don't see us reaching the middle 60's today, we will be lucky to get out of the lower 50's.

I noticed that the NWS significantly dropped their afternoon highs for the hill county, they are now calling for a high of 50. Boy did the GFS bust big time or what.

I don't know if the GFS busted or not, but I do know that Austin/San Antonio NWS forecasters probably underestimated the cold air advection factor as temps did fall about 20 degrees today and are steady now in the mid 40s.

Making for a chilly day!

[Portastorm]

This morning's 0z Canadian run also supports the Euro for middle of next week ... (Portastorm wonders to himself if it is truly time to lace up the cleats and go outside and see if Lucy is ready to hold ball)

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... dd_100.gif

[gboudx]

Porta, as this winter has gone, I'd wait and lace up those shoes when you see any sleet or snow falling from the sky. Then, and only then, can you be sure what that you will get winter weather.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is that a 1054mb high I see up in NW Canada!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

gulp...

Where did that thing come from so quickly?

[double D]

Is that a 1054mb high I see up in NW Canada!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

gulp...

Where did that thing come from so quickly?

Interesting EWG, I see that the latest 18z NAM has a 1048mb but really doesn't show it coming down the plains. I wonder if that 1054mb will factor in on our weather in the coming days? Although I don't think it's very cold in western Canada right now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is that a 1054mb high I see up in NW Canada!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

gulp...

Where did that thing come from so quickly?

Interesting EWG, I see that the latest 18z NAM has a 1048mb but really doesn't show it coming down the plains. I wonder if that 1054mb will factor in on our weather in the coming days? Although I don't think it's very cold in western Canada right now.

no, it isn't very cold, but it is much colder than before the last cold system.

current canadian temps: http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather ... ure_i1.png

[gboudx]

Here you go, from DFW NWS.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SHOW YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
MOVING ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE. PREFECT
PROG OF THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS BEFORE INSERTING WINTER PRECIP
INTO THE FORECAST. AT THE LEAST...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF COLD RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston NWS has lowered temps. a bit for the first half of this weekend:

Friday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 54. Northeast wind around 10 mph becoming southeast.

[TexasStooge]

The warmong trend here didn't last long. All of us North Texans better strap in, the temperature roller coaster ride isn't over yet.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, it looks like a couple of more cool/damp systems before we can finally, hopefully, for the love of God break into a more springtime pattern. I am so tired of the cold, rainy/drizzly stuff we can't seem to get rid of. The last two days have been wonderful though - at least temp wise a taste of spring.

[ETXHAMXYL]

ISn't Wednesday Valentines?....Another White ONE? mmmm may just sneak up on us. Most of the White ones were not predicted. They didn't last long but were a nice little goodbye to winter those years.
I like Chocolate, but snow can be just as sweet.

[Portastorm]

Alrightee ... 5th Euro run in a row that shows my winter storm for Texas next week. This is from the 12z run.

Day 6 850mb temps:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_144.gif

Day 6 500mb flow:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... pd_144.gif

Day 7 850mb temps:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

Day 7 500mb flow:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... pd_168.gif

Yes I am growing in excitement but also waiting for Air Force Met to come burst my balloon.

[Janie2006]

He's waiting for EWG to really chomp on the bait. That way, he gets to burst two balloons at once.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think mid and late next week will probably be cold and somewhat wet at times, but I am not yet sold on a winter storm reaching south of I-20. However, I do think a few readings below 32 for lows are possible (and the 0z GFS agrees), so there may be a slight chance at something wintry. ATM though, I am only going to predict that we see some cold, and may be wet weather for the Houston area next week.

After this blast of cold and wet is over with though, I really hope that winter can end! I am really starting to get anxious for some warmer weather and springtime storms! It just seems like we have been too cold and too wet for such a long time, and I am slowly but surely getting sick of it.

[Portastorm]

The GFS (0z and 6z) is now on board for a winter storm impacting parts of Texas mid to latter part of next week. Euro continues to show the same for the 6th run in a row!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Check out this rollercoaster of a forecast this morning from the NWS...

Today: A 20 percent chance of rain. Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 55. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Northeast wind around 10 mph becoming southeast.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. South wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.

Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 63.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a high near 53.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a high near 53.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFS (0z and 6z) is now on board for a winter storm impacting parts of Texas mid to latter part of next week. Euro continues to show the same for the 6th run in a row!

The 6z GFS is very impressive. If this trend continues, then we may indeed have problems south of I-20 next week. Going to be interesting to watch as it plays out...

BTW, for those who have not looked at the 6z run, check this out:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _174.shtml
^^Next Friday morning^^