Valentine eve's storm?

[sphinx]

Several models (GEM, Extended ETA, UKMET, ECMWF) are showing a winter storm for the mid-south, mid-Atlantic and/or northeast next week.

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _0000.html

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpl ... day.conus/

(click on 6-hr accumulated precipitation and then "DGEX")


If you believe this'll be a bust you have support in the operational 12 UT GFS

[ncupsscweather]

looking at the models this could be an okay storm.

[Stormsfury]

Serious potentials with regards to a classical cold air damming scenario unfolding, especially on the 12z EURO today ...

Taken verbatim on today's 12z EURO most of NC at 850mb is at 0C or below, with classical CAD with the wedge extending into Southeastern GA ... dependant on how strong the shallow dome is ... could be talking serious snowfall potentials in NC, with a devastating icestorm (1-2" ice accretions) Northern GA into a good portion of SC (temperatures at 850mb hover between 0C and 6C thru SC) and with the high in favorable position to reinforce the cold, dry air for a good 36-48 hours plus the moisture to reinforce the surface wedging ... gonna be some long days ahead to come ...

How dry is this airmass going to be preceding the moisture surge scares me ... the last few high pressures have sent dewpoints plummeting in the single digits and even below zero in some instances and the SHP was only in the high 1020s/low 1030s... this one is progged to be 1040mb, and from a verbatim standpoint, this CAD signature lasts almost 2 days.

I really believe the ice depictions trend a bit south as we near to the event given this classical look on EURO ... possibly pulling a Dec 2002 on this storm, only the heaviest ice accretions I think will be a bit farther south...

SF

[Lowpressure]

NWS Charlotte put in 30% for rain/ snow for Tuesday but said by the time the event gets here, it will be very different, one way or another. CAD getting to be a classic look. Charlotte looks to be on the line with good snow early, followed by some ice.

[Nimbus]

If this large high is slow to move out it will be a major steering element. The northeast could be in for a classic northeaster.

[Stephanie]

If we are going to get any big snow storms during this winter, that is the week when it usually happens.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's do or die now for Old Man Winter and any significant snow storm for our winter.

[Jim Cantore]

If we are going to get any big snow storms during this winter, that is the week when it usually happens.

true, look at last year.

I hope it's not too bad or changes it's timing, I have plans.

[Wannabewxman79]

It is a little early to get all excited about this, isn't it? I mean these models will change so much just by tomorrow won't they? And if not, what should I expect here in Wilmington, NC? Here is hoping we do get some snow but if not, don't be 33 and rain. Also, the local people are saying in the 50's that day.....http://www.wect.com/Global/story.asp?S=5150451

[Windspeed]

I am usually not one to post on winter weather, but the model runs from the past few days have peaked my interest. Looks like between the 13th and 20th, we may get several waves riding along the sub-tropical jet and positioning themselves to bring a winter mix to the southern Appalachians and mid-Atlantic. Still early, but one of these might turn into a big nor'easter and bring major snow to New England. Again, still a little early, but worth keeping an eye on the models as we get close to next week!

Check out tonight's GFS:

weaker 1st wave (Feb 12-14th):
Still 156hours
Still 174 hours
Storm Animation
stronger 2nd wave (Feb 16-18th):
Still 228 hours
Still 240 hours
Storm Animation

[Lowpressure]

NWS Charlotte starting to come on board with this, saying it has the look climatology wise of an ice storm, but too far out for details.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If we are going to get any big snow storms during this winter, that is the week when it usually happens.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's do or die now for Old Man Winter and any significant snow storm for our winter.

I agree in an over all Large Scale Pattern like this, the North East and Mid-West tend to stay cold and dry (no organized large scale precip events; other than Lake Effect).

Late next week look to be our best shot at a Major System this season in said areas (at least too date). Still far out yet, and a lot can change. We shall see though.

[sphinx]

While still savoring our first 1 inch snow (1.1" to be exact) of the winter (ok we came close earlier this year with a 0.8 incher) ...

The potential for mid-week storm continues. The experts are a bit more bearish than yesterday presumably because the highly regarded 00 UT run of the ECMWF suppresses the storm (see HPC discussions).

The 06 UT and 12 UT runs of the GFS show a significant storm affecting the mid-south, mid-Atlantic and extreme southern New England.

The 00 UT GFS suppressed this system but developed a northeaster later in the week. Let's not go there yet. The second system developed way off the coast in the 06 and 12 UT runs of the GFS.

The GFS ensembles indicate that the 06 and 12 UT runs are not outliers.

The DGEX run initialized from the 06 UT GFS simulation also shows a mid-week storm.

The 00UT GGEM spits out an Ohio Valley System! The 12UT run only goes out 6 days but does not favor an Ohio Valley track.

[Regit]

NWS Wilmington, which generally has dreadful discussions, says all liquid and that's it.

ILM very rarely forecasts a winter event more than 12-24 hours in advance.

[sphinx]

The 18 UT GFS is back to the two storm idea. It shows a moderate system on Tuesday followed by a northeaster on Thursday/Friday. The northeaster is followed by springlike conditions.

I'm dubious, but I'd love to see some snow.

[txwatcher91]

Anyone seen this yet? This is from the usually conservative CPC.

[Lowpressure]

That will get your attention alright.

[Stephanie]

Interesting....

At least the possibility didn't go "poof" overnight!

[therock1811]

NWS Wilmington, which generally has dreadful discussions, says all liquid and that's it.

ILM very rarely forecasts a winter event more than 12-24 hours in advance.

Yeah I saw that discussion. ILN (Wilmington, Ohio) here has the same problem a lot of times...can't exactly nail down the event, til it's already happening.

[Lowpressure]

GFS run is more north with the low with a less dominant high, looks a little warmer for Carolinas. But this is just one run. NWS Charlotte not too convinced until more runs at this point. There was good agreement yesterday, so we will see. The GFS shows a big winter system for the Carolinas on day 8. They are having a tough time right now. Pattern is changing big time and that is usually a transition time for models as well as local forecasts.

[angelwing]

Wish that heavy snow/ice line was about 50 miles more north into PA, we haven't seen anything worht it here yet.