TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[Extremeweatherguy]

FWIW, the 18z GFS continues to look very cold and even brings the arctic air in much sooner than some previous runs. If it is right, then the first arctic front will likely be cutting through the state by next Friday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif
^^Fri. afternoon (12pm)^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif
^^Sat. afternoon (12pm)^^

**The run is only out to Saturday so far..more to be posted later if need be.**

lol. This local forecast is really quite laughable:

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 40x480.jpg

Many people probably expect next weekend to be a "nice" one when they look at something like this. Temps. in the 60s with partly sunny skies sounds pretty good.
Too bad that forecast will bust badly...

Too bad that forecast will bust badly...??????????

THE SKY IS FALLING !!!!!!!!!!
THE SKY IS FALLING !!!!!!!!!!

No harm meant fellas. Just gettin tired of the sensationalism. If I want to see that I just watch the local news during a tropical storm/ hurricane event LOL.

Thanks for posting that, because that first quote actually showed that I was right. The front DID arrive on Friday and not Saturday or Sunday as first predicted. Sure, it wasn't as cold as first thought (though the high today was only 49-degrees at Hooks), but you can't say I was the only one calling for the possibility. There were many others on here, including pro mets, also calling for the chance of a strong cold snap and lows possibly into the teens. However, we all pretty much corrected ourselves in the following days after realizing this was not going to be the case.

[Portastorm]

If you are "tired of the sensationalism" then I suggest you click your mouse on that little "log out" hot link at the top of the page. It's real easy to do, actually.

As EWG said, he made a forecast ... didn't agree with other forecasts ... and then when it was obvious that he (and others, including me) were not going to be right, changed their thoughts and conceded to the experts like AFM.

I'm not sure I understand the benefit of the post other than the I'm-going-to-make-you-eat-your-words attitude.

[Furious George]

lol. This local forecast is really quite laughable:

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 40x480.jpg

Many people probably expect next weekend to be a "nice" one when they look at something like this. Temps. in the 60s with partly sunny skies sounds pretty good.
Too bad that forecast will bust badly...

Ironic is that tomorrow NWS is calling for highs in the 60's under partly sunny skies. Lesson I"ve learned - No 7 day forecast in advance of a arctic front in the middle of winter is automatically going to bust. Too much can change along the way. 3 day forecasts are a different story, as we've all seen rather poor one's when the arctic air is already on the way.

[vbhoutex]

FWIW, the 18z GFS continues to look very cold and even brings the arctic air in much sooner than some previous runs. If it is right, then the first arctic front will likely be cutting through the state by next Friday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif
^^Fri. afternoon (12pm)^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif
^^Sat. afternoon (12pm)^^

**The run is only out to Saturday so far..more to be posted later if need be.**

lol. This local forecast is really quite laughable:

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 40x480.jpg

Many people probably expect next weekend to be a "nice" one when they look at something like this. Temps. in the 60s with partly sunny skies sounds pretty good.
Too bad that forecast will bust badly...

Too bad that forecast will bust badly...??????????

THE SKY IS FALLING !!!!!!!!!!
THE SKY IS FALLING !!!!!!!!!!

No harm meant fellas. Just gettin tired of the sensationalism. If I want to see that I just watch the local news during a tropical storm/ hurricane event LOL.

As an adminstrator of this site, I will tell you right now that your time here will be very short lived if the attitude you displayed in the first post you made on this site is any indication of your style of posting. Go back and read the rules that are posted for everyones benefit that you are supposed to read and agree to when you register. Instead of degrading and calling others posts sensationalism, which they were not, try posting something contributory to the conversation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

lol. This local forecast is really quite laughable:

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 40x480.jpg

Many people probably expect next weekend to be a "nice" one when they look at something like this. Temps. in the 60s with partly sunny skies sounds pretty good.
Too bad that forecast will bust badly...

Ironic is that tomorrow NWS is calling for highs in the 60's under partly sunny skies. Lesson I"ve learned - No 7 day forecast in advance of a arctic front in the middle of winter is automatically going to bust. Too much can change along the way. 3 day forecasts are a different story, as we've all seen rather poor one's when the arctic air is already on the way.

That is true, tomorrow will be pretty nice with partly sunny skies and temperatures in the 60s. However, back when I made my comment the local news was only forecasting out to Saturday (today), which as it turns out is only forecast to be in the middle 50s (they were forecasting lower 60s). In the end, neither I nor the local guys were spot on with our predictions.

[double D]

I have noticed for several runs now that the GFS is advertising a heavy rain event for south central and southeast Texas next weekend. Maybe severe too? I know that this probably belongs in the USA weather forum, but wanted to see if anyone else was thinking the same.

[JenBayles]

Dumb question here - I see our forecast for Houston the next several days is cool (well, in MY vocabulary, it's COLD ) and partly cloudy. Looking at the sat loops, the southern jet is right on our doorstep. Is this high strong enough to push the clouds away for a while or does anyone think that jet will park itself over us and keep us in the gloom yet again? Just curious!

[jasons2k]

I agree that kind of post is over the top and degrading, and the following is not in any way an endorsement of that post.

The issue though is that we have to go through the same thing with some members with every single cold threat. The pros have to counter-post some "realism" into the discussion many times over, and yet some people still don't seem to get the message. It is not a one-time occurance; it is a repeatable pattern of consistent bias.

There is nothing wrong with asking questions, learning, or even being wrong. The weather is not an exact science and opinions can vary widely. It's another thing IMO to so confidently and so forcefully say that professional sources are going to "bust badly" and give false information to users seeking weather information. It borders on irresponsible or should at least use a disclaimer as we use in the tropical forum.

If one is big enough to make such bold statements, then they should be big enough to face the music when they are wrong.

[Portastorm]

I have noticed for several runs now that the GFS is advertising a heavy rain event for south central and southeast Texas next weekend. Maybe severe too? I know that this probably belongs in the USA weather forum, but wanted to see if anyone else was thinking the same.

double D, I have noticed the same thing. The southern jet appears to get quite active later this week into next weekend. The GFS, the Euro, and the Canadian show varying solutions on where low pressure development occurs ... but it is clear that precipitation is likely next weekend. Maybe a lot of precipitation!

Even though El Nino is waning ... the residual effects will probably continue into early spring.

[double D]

Well Portastorm, if this pattern continues then maybe this year we will actually have bluebonnets to look at.

So next weekend might get a little interesting for parts of Texas, but this time more spring like instead of winter like.

[Lindaloo]

FWIW, the 18z GFS continues to look very cold and even brings the arctic air in much sooner than some previous runs. If it is right, then the first arctic front will likely be cutting through the state by next Friday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif
^^Fri. afternoon (12pm)^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif
^^Sat. afternoon (12pm)^^

**The run is only out to Saturday so far..more to be posted later if need be.**

lol. This local forecast is really quite laughable:

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 40x480.jpg

Many people probably expect next weekend to be a "nice" one when they look at something like this. Temps. in the 60s with partly sunny skies sounds pretty good.
Too bad that forecast will bust badly...

Too bad that forecast will bust badly...??????????

THE SKY IS FALLING !!!!!!!!!!
THE SKY IS FALLING !!!!!!!!!!

No harm meant fellas. Just gettin tired of the sensationalism. If I want to see that I just watch the local news during a tropical storm/ hurricane event LOL.

As an adminstrator of this site, I will tell you right now that your time here will be very short lived if the attitude you displayed in the first post you made on this site is any indication of your style of posting. Go back and read the rules that are posted for everyones benefit that you are supposed to read and agree to when you register. Instead of degrading and calling others posts sensationalism, which they were not, try posting something contributory to the conversation.

I support this statement in bold 100%! Well said.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree that kind of post is over the top and degrading, and the following is not in any way an endorsement of that post.

The issue though is that we have to go through the same thing with some members with every single cold threat. The pros have to counter-post some "realism" into the discussion many times over, and yet some people still don't seem to get the message. It is not a one-time occurance; it is a repeatable pattern of consistent bias.

There is nothing wrong with asking questions, learning, or even being wrong. The weather is not an exact science and opinions can vary widely. It's another thing IMO to so confidently and so forcefully say that professional sources are going to "bust badly" and give false information to users seeking weather information. It borders on irresponsible or should at least use a disclaimer as we use in the tropical forum.

If one is big enough to make such bold statements, then they should be big enough to face the music when they are wrong.

Here's the thing jschlitz...in this situation we actually had the pro mets on storm2k telling us that severe cold was possible. Any predictions I may have made at those times were actually quite in tune with what I was being told by the mets that contribute to this site and some mets outside of this site. However I, like everyone else, changed my tune by midweek and no longer thought a severe cold snap was possible. There is really nothing else to it. The fact is, most of us were somewhat wrong with this one.

As for that TV news forecast in question...it really did bust quite badly when you think about it. According to that forecast...yesterday was supposed to be in the 60s for highs. However, we only managed the upper 40s to near 50 in Houston (a bust of 10+ degrees). Also, they never had a forecast of lower 30s here for last night, yet that is what we saw. And then today was forecast to be in the lower 60s, but now it looks like we may not get out of the middle 50s. That is clearly a bust on their part, and you cannot really say that I (or anyone else on storm2k) was wrong and that they were right, because that is simply not the case.

[Furious George]

That's why I turn to the mets on storm2k!. The local mets weren't that accurate, the NWS handled it okay and Bastardi had the biggest bust of them all (and people pay for that).

It was actually Air Force Met who first questioned the arctic air heading our direction. That is not an easy thing to do on this board. He knows its going to be unpopular with the cold weather fan crowd (me and 80% on this board who have a bias to cold weather). Yet he told it like it was, and kudos should be given when they are in order. My thoughts are more props for those who forecasted well, while those who forecasted poorly can be pointed out, but there is no need to degrade anyone.

[jasons2k]

EWG:

When looking at the weather you have to look at the big picture.

From 7 days out they basically missed the timing by a day. Neither they nor the NWS called for severe cold and it didn't happen; it was a run-of-the-mill front for us as forecasted. I'd hardly call that a bust. Calling for highs in the 20's here and teens in Dallas - now that was a bust.

This event was nothing like some of the sky-is-falling stuff predicted by other sources and supported by you and a minority here. And like I said, this didn't start with this event. How quickly we forget going through the same stuff last year. If you can't remember that than just scroll back and see for yourself. It's all in print in the previous threads. That's all I'm gonna say on this matter on the open forum.

[southerngale]

This is kinda off topic, but because she lives in Austin and mentions the ice storm there, I thought you guys might want to see it.

Btw, it is HILARIOUS!!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 03#1515503

[SETXweatherwatcher]

That was the cutest thing I have heard in a long time.

I don't post here much, but I look everyday!!!

So Hi southergale, I'm here in SE Texas, Port Neches to be exact.

[PineyWoods]

First time poster here, and I would like to thank the Pro Mets here for their analysis of all these models. I did not particularly like the analysis that AFM gave, however it was only because I wanted the cold. A very nice call on what would happen. I also like reading the analysis of some of the amateur mets here too.

I would like to not get OT here, however, I have seen several posters here from the Houston area, and was wondering if any here remember a snow fall back in Houston during Jan 1973? It was the first time I ever saw snow and we were living in Spring Branch and got around 2-3 inches I believe. It also snowed 2 more times in Feb 1973. I know because we skipped school because it wasn't called off, got caught and spent Saturday in detention. Then guess what it did that Saturday? Right, it snowed.

Then we moved to Oregon where it snowed every other day before my dad moved us back to East Texas. I seemed to remember that we have had several Feb's here where we had ice. I know we got married on Feb 17, 1979 in an ice storm here in Tyler. Maybe we'll have another shot at one more winter event before spring.

[jasons2k]

Hey Piney Woods - welcome to S2k!!

I know there are some pics of the 1973 snowfall in some previous threads. Do a search and it should come-up for you. I'd do it and post a link but I'm headed out the door right now - hopefully a search will give you what you need.

[PTPatrick]

I witnessed quite possibly the biggest bust of a temp forecast I have EVER witnessed the past 2 days...Keep in mind this is Denver, and a little downsloap wind can bust a forecast VERY quickly. That is exactly what happend.

As of Thursday's forecast of lows below zero in Denver, did pan out. My apartment(Downtown) was 6 below on 6:00 Friday morning. But the forecast high(even as of that morning) for Friday was for a high of 8. Well the downsloap kicked in and most of the day we were in the mid 20s...a bust of almost 20 degress in a forecast made 8 hours earlier.

now the downsloap continues last night and actually WARMED Denver to around 34degrees but 10:00 last night...our forecast low for downtown was actually 5 last night(yes even as of the afternoon update)...We were still at 30 when I left this morning...so a bust of about 25 degrees.

Yesterday's afternoon forecast called for a high today of 21 in downtown...it is now 48...busted.

I realy feel for these Boulder office mets because these Chinooks can really screw a forecast. Actually...Just beyond dowtown(farther from the foothils such as where DIA is at have been much cooler than downtown...and the eastern plain of colorado is still cold. Also in their defense, this possibility has been discussed all week in the discos, but they didnt seem to think it would happen, until well, it did...


So if your forecast busted for 5 or even 10 degrees...no worries...you could be forecasting for denver

[Portastorm]

This is kinda off topic, but because she lives in Austin and mentions the ice storm there, I thought you guys might want to see it.

Btw, it is HILARIOUS!!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 03#1515503

I'm going to be on the lookout for Gladys!!