TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[D_bird]

Although the cold spell did not live up to the hype, it's nice to see that the Dallas area got a couple of days of some light snow out of all this.

Btw, that is a nice picture D bird.

Thanks.

It sure is nice to get snow and not ice for once. We can work with snow.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Have an inch and a half on the cars and ground here in Paradise...

In fact there is enough snow to do this...

Nice pic! but lose that Rangers hat, go for a nice STARS, or MAVS hat!!

Could do worse with an Aggy hat.

[TexasStooge]

LOL on those "hat comments". Nice pic!

How about putting that cap on sideways?

Anyways, here's the next winter weather update from the NWS in Fort Worth:

.NOW...
SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. PATCHY AREAS OF MODERATE
SNOW HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM GRAHAM TO GREENVILLE. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE
METROPLEX AND LESS THAN AN INCH OR TWO IN AREAS FARTHER NORTH. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF SLOWLY
AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT.

[jasons2k]

Unfotunately for the snow lovers, the loops on my GR3 show what's left to be disentegrating pretty fast. It's been a pretty good winter season for DFW this year!

[gboudx]

Unfotunately for the snow lovers, the loops on my GR3 show what's left to be disentegrating pretty fast. It's been a pretty good winter season for DFW this year!

So far, it's lived up to the El Nino hype. Wetter than normal, and cooler than normal. We still need more of that Wetter than normal though.

[CaptinCrunch]

Unfotunately for the snow lovers, the loops on my GR3 show what's left to be disentegrating pretty fast. It's been a pretty good winter season for DFW this year!

So far, it's lived up to the El Nino hype. Wetter than normal, and cooler than normal. We still need more of that Wetter than normal though.

You are correct with that gboudx!!

However, February has always been our snowiest month, and I don't think this year will be any different from past El Nino years with a better than avgerage chance of at least 1 good snowfall before the month is up.

The latest snowfall I remember in february was on the 24th-27th.

February 24-27, 2003 - This was a widespread freezing rain, sleet and snow event, with ice to the south and snow to the north. Accumulations were generally 3-5 inches over the northern third of the area, and 1-3 inches over the middle third. Over south central and parts of southeast Texas, ice accumulated to between ¼-½ inch.

March can also bring a late winter snowfall.

March 12-13, 1924 - Between 4-8 inches of snow fell over the Red River area, and as far south as Dallas and Fort Worth. Between 8-10 inches were reported at Bowie, Bridgeport, Weatherford and Honey Grove.

[southerngale]

Wetter than normal here, too. Rain, rain, and more rain!

If you got anything fun to do outdoors for Christmas, you're still waiting to get to do it! Believe me, I know.

COME ON, SUNSHINE...WE MISS YOU! We're all sinking into the ground down here.





Btw, nice pic D_bird....ya lucky dog!

[Johnny]

It's pretty chilly outside here in Conroe. I'm sititng at 43 degrees with a stiff wind out of the northwest with overcast. I think I'll get a good fire going tonight.

[Shoshana]

Unfotunately for the snow lovers, the loops on my GR3 show what's left to be disentegrating pretty fast. It's been a pretty good winter season for DFW this year!

So far, it's lived up to the El Nino hype. Wetter than normal, and cooler than normal. We still need more of that Wetter than normal though.

You are correct with that gboudx!!

However, February has always been our snowiest month, and I don't think this year will be any different from past El Nino years with a better than avgerage chance of at least 1 good snowfall before the month is up.

The latest snowfall I remember in february was on the 24th-27th.

February 24-27, 2003 - This was a widespread freezing rain, sleet and snow event, with ice to the south and snow to the north. Accumulations were generally 3-5 inches over the northern third of the area, and 1-3 inches over the middle third. Over south central and parts of southeast Texas, ice accumulated to between ¼-½ inch.

March can also bring a late winter snowfall.

March 12-13, 1924 - Between 4-8 inches of snow fell over the Red River area, and as far south as Dallas and Fort Worth. Between 8-10 inches were reported at Bowie, Bridgeport, Weatherford and Honey Grove.

March 1978 - Dallas got a big snowfall. I have pictures of the igloo that some people built on the track at SMU. Rumor was 10", I don't think it was quite that much but it left 3-4" piled up on benches tables etc. The winter of '77-'78 had alot of winter precip.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Clouds are breaking up here in Spring, but it is still pretty chilly with a stiff north breeze. Current temperature is about 45-46 degrees at 1:15pm.

hard to believe the cold front isn't even really here yet (according to the HPC):

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

[jasons2k]

The front is getting diffuse; it's not much of a front anymore.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What I find funny is the fact that this morning's newspaper had a forecast of 62 for a High in Houston today. Hopefully no one relied only on that before heading out today!

Also, another thing I find funny today is some of the local news forecasts..

I am not saying they are going to be wrong, because they very well may be right, but it does show how warm-biased many of the forecasters are in the Houston area..

For instance, Check out Channel 2's forecast:

http://www.click2houston.com/wxmap/710318/detail.html

Every single day of their forecast is consistently well above the NWS guidance. Those 70-degree numbers they are showing for next week are only forecast to be 63-64 by the NWS, and that 60 they show for tomorrow is only forecast to be 56 by the NWS. Seems like the news stations may be trying to give us a bit of false hope at the moment. (though it would be nice, IMO, to see a 70-degree day or two next week. I am getting tired of this constant cold).

update (2:30pm): NWS seems to have updated their forecast. They are now calling for 58 tomorrow and 65 next Monday and Tuesday. The Channel 2 forecast may wind up closer than first thought.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I'd be surprised to see 70's that fast myself. You never know though. Today was cooler than forecasted; yesterday was warmer than forecasted. It's a see-saw.

[HouTXmetro]

Time for the sun to put some hot water in the Bath Tub, the GOM.

[double D]

It looks like next week will be a little on the toasty side according the the San Antonio/Austin NWS, Here is a snippet of the discussion:

FORECAST BEYOND DAY 5 IS A BIT TRICKY. GFS IS INDICATING A WARMING
TREND FROM LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAX TEMPS OVER
THE WEEKEND CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. CUT GFS
NUMBERS BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES...BUT REMAINED A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

I guess we can say goodbye to the cold weather for a while.

[CajunMama]

Ahhhh....it's going to be cold and sunny the next couple of days. I like what the lake charles nws said.

EXPECT THE FLOW ALOFT TO SHIFT FROM A SW DIRECTION BY THU AND FRI
OF NEXT WEEK...BRING BACK THE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN. UNTIL
THEN...GO OUT AND ENJOY THE SUN...AS THIS IS A RARE COMMODITY
DURING THE MIDDLE OF GULF EL NINO WINTERS!

PS...didya vote? http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=92746

[jasons2k]

The forecast discussions just keep getting better and better - from Houston/GLS:

"THINK LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT."

"SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK THAT
COULD PREVENT A SERIES OF PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED COLD FRONTS FROM MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. GENERALLY LOWER PRESSURES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WOULD ALLOW OUR ALREADY ESTABLISHED RETURN FLOW TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COLD SURFACE HIGHS THAT WERE TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WOULD END UP REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA."

I'll be real nice and not dig-up some of the "we'll see who's right" types of posts of the last week or two....but feel free to page back for some nice entertainment

[wxman57]

The forecast discussions just keep getting better and better - from Houston/GLS:

"THINK LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT."

"SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK THAT
COULD PREVENT A SERIES OF PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED COLD FRONTS FROM MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. GENERALLY LOWER PRESSURES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WOULD ALLOW OUR ALREADY ESTABLISHED RETURN FLOW TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COLD SURFACE HIGHS THAT WERE TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WOULD END UP REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA."

I'll be real nice and not dig-up some of the "we'll see who's right" types of posts of the last week or two....but feel free to page back for some nice entertainment

"SOME MODELS" appears to apply to the GFS, which predicts pressures in Nebraska of 1012mb with a 1028mb high north of Montana next Friday. For the same time period, the ECMWF has a 1047mb high in the same spot with 1036mb pressures in Nebraska and a quite strong cold front plunging southward.

GFS 12Z Friday 9th:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_162m.gif

ECMWF 12Z Friday 9th:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

As the GFS has shown a competely different surface solution each 6 hours for the past week, I'd tend not to believe it.

[Air Force Met]

The forecast discussions just keep getting better and better - from Houston/GLS:

"THINK LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT."

"SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK THAT
COULD PREVENT A SERIES OF PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED COLD FRONTS FROM MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS. GENERALLY LOWER PRESSURES TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WOULD ALLOW OUR ALREADY ESTABLISHED RETURN FLOW TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COLD SURFACE HIGHS THAT WERE TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WOULD END UP REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA."

I'll be real nice and not dig-up some of the "we'll see who's right" types of posts of the last week or two....but feel free to page back for some nice entertainment

"SOME MODELS" appears to apply to the GFS, which predicts pressures in Nebraska of 1012mb with a 1028mb high north of Montana next Friday. For the same time period, the ECMWF has a 1047mb high in the same spot with 1036mb pressures in Nebraska and a quite strong cold front plunging southward.

GFS 12Z Friday 9th:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_162m.gif

ECMWF 12Z Friday 9th:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

As the GFS has shown a competely different surface solution each 6 hours for the past week, I'd tend not to believe it.

Given the lack of very cold, dense air associated with the high..and the upper flow aloft...I will give this high the same destiny as the highs before it in regards to SETX weather. The high will end up well east of us...and we will get back-doored. It will cool us down some...but not enough for us to spend a lot of time talking about it in regards to weather here. We might again see 10 degrees below normal for lows out of it. That about the extent I give it...seeing how 850 temps are only 4F in the core of the high (in the northern US)...which is what would get us if it slide straight down...which it won't. Modify that air about 30 or so degrees and bring it down to the sfc...well...that won't do much even if it pluges due south...which it won't. It (the high and the core of cold air) is going east.

[Chicken Little 1]

FWIW, the 18z GFS continues to look very cold and even brings the arctic air in much sooner than some previous runs. If it is right, then the first arctic front will likely be cutting through the state by next Friday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif
^^Fri. afternoon (12pm)^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif
^^Sat. afternoon (12pm)^^

**The run is only out to Saturday so far..more to be posted later if need be.**

lol. This local forecast is really quite laughable:

http://images.ibsys.com/hou/images/weat ... 40x480.jpg

Many people probably expect next weekend to be a "nice" one when they look at something like this. Temps. in the 60s with partly sunny skies sounds pretty good.
Too bad that forecast will bust badly...

Too bad that forecast will bust badly...??????????

THE SKY IS FALLING !!!!!!!!!!
THE SKY IS FALLING !!!!!!!!!!

No harm meant fellas. Just gettin tired of the sensationalism. If I want to see that I just watch the local news during a tropical storm/ hurricane event LOL.