TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[TexasStooge]

well here in plano, while i was at school, i watched the rain change over to snow within a few minutes....first time ive ever seen that happen and it was coming down pretty good...

About the same story here in Irving. I thought I was seeing things until I saw some slushy drops on my umbrella. Only saw some accumulations on some grassy areas, but that was it.

[D_bird]

This is the latest Short Term Forecast from NWS FWD

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
900 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-020550-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
900 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007

.NOW...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND SAN ANGELO WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL AFFECT AREAS AS FAR EAST AS
GRAHAM AND BRECKENRIDGE AROUND MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND 4 AM.

THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TO NOON. FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW. THIS...
COUPLED WITH ANY REFREEZING OF RESIDUAL WATER ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...MAY MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH...
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

[double D]

Is JB still calling for major cold next week? I was curious since the EURO is no longer showing cold (just cool) temperatures for Texas. This might be a case where the models (specifically the GFS) got the best of JB this time around.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Is JB still calling for major cold next week? I was curious since the EURO is no longer showing cold (just cool) temperatures for Texas. This might be a case where the models (specifically the GFS) got the best of JB this time around.

JB thinks the Arctic Jet will drop "south" around the 20th.


I'd like to think I'll find $1 Million dollars on the 20th too.

JB needs to throw in the towel on the cold for Texas now before he loses all of his creditbilty.

[Air Force Met]

Is JB still calling for major cold next week? I was curious since the EURO is no longer showing cold (just cool) temperatures for Texas. This might be a case where the models (specifically the GFS) got the best of JB this time around.

He said: "No its not the teens tomorrow afternoon, but another surge early next week may have bad intentions."

I have NO idea what he is looking at. There is no surge remotely headed this way early next week. There is a surge in the middle of the week coming down...but by the time it hits Texas its late week and most of it will still go east. NO model shows a "surge" coming at the beginnig of the week....a little backdoor cooling on Tuesday...but even the EURO doesn't take 850 temps in DFW below 0C. They are 4.9C after 8C on Monday. If that's a surge...then we need to redefine it. Frankly...there isn't really enough cold air to "surge" with.

So...I have NO idea what he is talking about. Frankly...he needs to give it up. He was wrong and he needs to admit it. This is the weakness of JB...he rides his plane down into the ground instead of ejecting at a safe altitude!

[double D]

Thanks CC. So now it's the 20th of Feb? Pretty soon we will be in March and JB will have to give up on the cold for Texas. Was he using the "mule" analogy again?

Saw that you chimed in too AFM after I hit the submit button. Thanks for the explanation as I was just curious on what was making him so bullish on the cold air for next week.

[NDG]

Is JB still calling for major cold next week? I was curious since the EURO is no longer showing cold (just cool) temperatures for Texas. This might be a case where the models (specifically the GFS) got the best of JB this time around.

JB thinks the Arctic Jet will drop "south" around the 20th.


I'd like to think I'll find $1 Million dollars on the 20th too.

JB needs to throw in the towel on the cold for Texas now before he loses all of his creditbilty.

Now the 20th? I think he needs to stick to a 24hr forecast by the times his long range has not panned out.

[Air Force Met]

JB needs to throw in the towel on the cold for Texas now before he loses all of his creditbilty.

Hehehehe....we were posting the same thing...at almost the same time.

He does have a problem with towel throwing...doesn't he?

[TrekkerCC]

It's official. We may get some more winter precipitation with this next batch moving in.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
935 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW TO
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE...ARLINGTON...TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD TO NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE LIGHT...SOME BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL
935 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 12 PM
CST FRIDAY.

LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO FREEZING
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW BY SUNRISE AND CAUSE SLICK SPOTS TO DEVELOP ON
SOME ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WINTER PRECIPITATION
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS

BTW, I did get a light dusting of snow as I sure others got in the northern suburbs/DFW area. I am hoping for another inch of snow by morning.

[wall_cloud]

well we managed to squeak out a high of 28 today (and the main cold front won't arrive until tonight).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting Houston AFD tonight:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
916 PM CST THU FEB 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SOME FOLKS CAUGHT A FEW MINUTES OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT WAS
JUST A TEASE. CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACK IN UNDER THE CAP. LEADING
EDGE AF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. FIRST PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST (TONIGHT) LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND DON`T PLAN ON
ANY CHANGES EXCEPT TO KEEP THE CLOUDS IN PLACE.

AM CONCERNED HOWEVER ABOUT THE ONGOING FCST FOR FRI. 18Z RUNS AND
INCOMING 00Z DATA ALL SHOW ONGOING CAA ACROSS THE AREA AND ALSO
KEEPS A CLOUD DECK TRAPPED UNDER THE CAP FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ALL TRENDING A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT`S
FORECAST. DON`T USUALLY LIKE TO MESS WITH THE FCST BEYOND THE 1ST
PERIOD UNTIL LOOKING AT THE FULL MODEL SUITES...BUT FEEL IT IS
BEST TO LOWER TEMPS AND TWEAK CLOUDS FOR FRI BASED ON THE BITS AND
PIECES OF INCOMING DATA SINCE IT ALL APPEARS TO BE ON THE SAME
PAGE. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED ANOTHER CATEGORY OR SO BY THE
MIDNIGHT CREW...

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE WINDS IN THE MARINE FCST ON FRI AS WELL.

So far they have lowered the highs for tomorrow from the middle 50s to about 51-degrees for this area. If they move it another category lower, then that might mean 40s tomorrow for highs. That isn't that big of a deal compared to what we have seen so far this winter, but that is A LOT colder than Friday looked just a few days ago (and with more cloud cover too). I remember just 1-2 days back the forecast was for 62 on Friday with partly sunny skies, and to tell you the truth...I was actually kind of looking foward to that one day break from the clouds and the cold. Oh well..

[TexasStooge]

The National Weather Service has replaced the Winter Weather Advisory with a Snow Advisory for the Northern 1/2 of North Texas including the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex until Noon CST.

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDDAY OVER THE SNOW ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
THOSE AREAS CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER WHERE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL EXIST THROUGH MID MORNING.

SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED OR
GRASSY SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
LOCATIONS WHERE ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP AND TRAVEL SHOULD BE DONE
WITH CAUTION.

[gboudx]

That thing they call "the sun" is shining out here in Rockwall. Where's this snow we were supposed to have this morning?

Winter Cancel.

[Portastorm]

Couple of things:

1) As the Austin metro area has temps this morning in the upper 30s with a predicted high in the mid 40s ... the cold front has arrived much sooner than any model predicted.

2) The GFS from 48 hrs ago suggested temps in the mid 60s for Austin today and performed terribly. For that matter, the Euro wasn't so hot either. No model was!

3) Air Force Met was right in his suggestion that this cold (12-18 degrees below normal roughly) would last a "day or two." I thought he was wrong when he posted that a few days ago ... and ... of course, he was right! Moral of the story: Portastorm you don't know weather like Air Force Met knows weather!

[CaptinCrunch]

Well when I got up this morning at 630am the roof tops, yards and cars were covered with snow, and it was sticking to the streets as well because you could see the tire tracks from the school bus. I would say it was about 1/2 inch on the grass and cars.

But, later when I got ready to leave for work the streets were clear, but there was some still on the local bridges.

[D_bird]

Have an inch and a half on the cars and ground here in Paradise...

In fact there is enough snow to do this...

[CaptinCrunch]

Have an inch and a half on the cars and ground here in Paradise...

In fact there is enough snow to do this...

Nice pic! but lose that Rangers hat, go for a nice STARS, or MAVS hat!!

[D_bird]

well I would've, but I didn't have one. At least it is a Texas something hat

[double D]

Although the cold spell did not live up to the hype, it's nice to see that the Dallas area got a couple of days of some light snow out of all this.

Btw, that is a nice picture D bird.

[HouTXmetro]

When can we expect a real warm up? Like temps in the mid 70's and lows in the upper 50's/60's?