TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[Portastorm]

We had a nice little thunderstorm that produced some pea-sized hail in Fredericksburg. I guess now I can say I saw some ice today too.
This is weird weather, Dallas is getting snow, and south central Texas is basking under 60 degree temperatures.

And it wasn't supposed to snow/sleet today either. At least not in the metroplex. Now, it's snowing quite a bit outside with a lot more on the radar.

I'm happy for you gboudx ... surprise snows are fun, unless you get stuck at work!

[gboudx]

I'm happy for you gboudx ... surprise snows are fun, unless you get stuck at work!

And unfortunately, that's where I am. But hey, my oldest kid has been asking for snow since Christmas. And don't you know that today is his 7th bday, and it's snowing. Maybe we'll get some light accumulation, but ground and air temps are > 32, so I don't know how much will stick.

[CaptinCrunch]

Been snowing hard here in DT Ft Worth for the past 30 min or so.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Wow! Something orange is now flooding the parking lot outside my office window. Could it be, could it be..... The sun?

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Grassy surfaces and roofs are already white on this side of town...temp in Addison is 34, McKinney and Denton are at 33...I don't expect NWS to keep tonight's forecast low at 31 much longer.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We had a nice little thunderstorm that produced some pea-sized hail in Fredericksburg. I guess now I can say I saw some ice today too.
This is weird weather, Dallas is getting snow, and south central Texas is basking under 60 degree temperatures.

60-degree temps? wow. You guys are definitely the "warm" spot today. So far, I have only managed low to mid 50s here.

[gboudx]

Snow is starting to collect on the grassy areas, and definitely on the vehicles. I'll be leaving soon for home, and it should be an interesting ride.

And the temp has dropped 2 degrees. Now at about 33.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a weather.com map to keep track of the current U.S. temperatures in the coming days...

[southerngale]

And we were supposed to get in the mid-50's today but we haven't gotten out of the 40's. It's currently 47°

Is that because we're east of Houston, etc. and the farther east you are, it's a little colder? Well, I know not necessarily...like if you're going east and south like to Miami, it isn't colder. lol

[jasons2k]

I'm loving the forecast disucssions today from the NWS. Music to my ears (or eyes?!?!)

From Fort Worth-Dallas:
"THE MODELS ARE
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR...WITH THE
NAM PROFILE SOUNDINGS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AT CRITICAL LEVELS.
LOOKING AT THE SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...NO TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS NOTED UNTIL REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TOMORROW
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY AS THE GFS INDICATES."

(Ahem...side note...quite the opposite of what was expected of the GFS...wasn't the GFS supposed to "bust badly" on the WARM side??)

From Houston-Galveston:
"COLDEST TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE NATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA."

[jasons2k]

Hey Southerngale, I think a lot of it has to do with the sun too. I saw the sun peek out here some today and our high was warmer than forecasted. It's in the 60's towards Corpus and San Antonio...snowing in Dallas...and in the 20's in the panhandle. A good example of the extremes we experience here in Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm loving the forecast disucssions today from the NWS. Music to my ears (or eyes?!?!)

From Fort Worth-Dallas:
"THE MODELS ARE
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR...WITH THE
NAM PROFILE SOUNDINGS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AT CRITICAL LEVELS.
LOOKING AT THE SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...NO TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS NOTED UNTIL REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TOMORROW
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY AS THE GFS INDICATES."

(Ahem...side note...quite the opposite of what was expected of the GFS...wasn't the GFS supposed to "bust badly" on the WARM side??)

From Houston-Galveston:
"COLDEST TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE NATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA."

jschiltz, just because the NWS says something doesn't mean it has to happen for sure. For example...Dallas has been having a hard time with the wintry weather in their forecast area in recent days and the forecasts have seemed to be too warm up there in the last 2 days.

Also, if the GFS is too cold and if the NWS offices are right, then that means that our pro mets here on S2K are too cold. AFM has called for temps. as cold as 27-30 at IAH and wxman57 has called for as cold as mid to upper 20s at IAH. At this point, it really all just depends on who you want to side with.

Personally, I am sticking with wxman57's and AFM's predictions at the moment since their ideas have remained pretty steady over the last few days (when in that same time the NWS has flip-flopped many times).

[Yankeegirl]

I think the weather is going to be nice this weekend... anyone up for a pool party? We can have it at Jen Bayles house!!! Ill bring the liquor!!!

[double D]

We had a nice little thunderstorm that produced some pea-sized hail in Fredericksburg. I guess now I can say I saw some ice today too.
This is weird weather, Dallas is getting snow, and south central Texas is basking under 60 degree temperatures.

60-degree temps? wow. You guys are definitely the "warm" spot today. So far, I have only managed low to mid 50s here.

Yep, it was a nice change too. San Antonio is sitting at 66 degress at 5:50, under mostly clear skies, so we must have been in a little warm pocket today.

Although we are now at 53 degrees with a nice, north wind blowing.

[Air Force Met]

I'm loving the forecast disucssions today from the NWS. Music to my ears (or eyes?!?!)

From Fort Worth-Dallas:
"THE MODELS ARE
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR...WITH THE
NAM PROFILE SOUNDINGS A FEW DEGREES WARMER AT CRITICAL LEVELS.
LOOKING AT THE SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE COUNTRY...NO TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS NOTED UNTIL REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TOMORROW
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY AS THE GFS INDICATES."



(Ahem...side note...quite the opposite of what was expected of the GFS...wasn't the GFS supposed to "bust badly" on the WARM side??)

From Houston-Galveston:
"COLDEST TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE NATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA."

jschiltz, just because the NWS says something doesn't mean it has to happen for sure. For example...Dallas has been having a hard time with the wintry weather in their forecast area in recent days and the forecasts have seemed to be too warm up there in the last 2 days.

Also, if the GFS is too warm and if the NWS offices are right, then that means that our pro mets here on S2K are too cold. AFM has called for temps. as cold as 27-30 at IAH and wxman57 has called for as cold as mid to upper 20s at IAH. At this point, it really all just depends on who you want to side with.

Personally, I am sticking with wxman57's and AFM's predictions at the moment since their ideas have remained pretty steady over the last few days (when in that same time the NWS has flip-flopped many times).

Well...I hate to flip flop...but even I'm thinking I'm too cold now. 30 may be on the low side for IAH. I got my couple of days with 10-15 degrees below normal for highs...but I think my 12-15 degrees for lows are going to be in trouble...especially if we get cloud cover. The 18z NAM continues to take a much weaker high further east.

[Extremeweatherguy]

One thing that is amazing to me is how fast that high weakened. This time yesterday it was a full-fledged 1046-1047mb high pressure system...and now it is down to about 1035mb. Just goes to show how quickly things can change.

[southerngale]

Well...I hate to flip flop...but even I'm thinking I'm too cold now. 30 may be on the low side for IAH. I got my couple of days with 10-15 degrees below normal for highs...but I think my 12-15 degrees for lows are going to be in trouble...especially if we get cloud cover. The 18z NAM continues to take a much weaker high further east.

Greg Bostwick has inched his numbers up a little too. I guess it's just going to be a little warmer than we thought yesterday and of course a lot warmer than most of us thought a week+ ago.

[Air Force Met]

One thing that is amazing to me is how fast that high weakened. This time yesterday it was a full-fledged 1046-1047mb high pressure system...and now it is down to about 1035mb. Just goes to show how quickly things can change.

There was no cold air to sustain it...and it was born out of a process of building from upper level support. Once it lost it's support...it lost it. THat's why I wasn't real "impressed" with its possibility of rolling down the lee-side and not getting swept up in the upper level flow. I figured the NAM would figure that out around the 48-60 hour point...and it has (since it was originally trying to bring it straight down...which I didn't buy in to).

[cheezyWXguy]

well here in plano, while i was at school, i watched the rain change over to snow within a few minutes....first time ive ever seen that happen and it was coming down pretty good...weve now dropped to about 32 and theres about 1/2 and inch of snow on the grass but the ground is still a bit warm for road accumulations...now. But one thing ive noticed is that cloud cover us beginning to move out, meaning temps may soon be aloud to drop, hopefully below our forecasted low of 28...If this happened, with the approaching UL disturbance already triggering rain/snow showers near abilene, we could be seeing the ground temp below freezing+snow from the ULL giving us near an extra inch of snow...hopefully....just my 2 cents...even our SWS mentions the possibility of an inch of new snow north of a line from breckenridge to sulphur springs. could get interesting

[Extremeweatherguy]

The front seems to be entering the northern panhandle at the moment...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... rs_abi.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif