TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[Extremeweatherguy]

1039mb high in NW Canada has strengthened to 1041mb overnight...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

OK...met lesson:

A two MB change overnight on the sfc chart is diurnal...not strengthening.

Here is the "rules of thumb" to use (or at least the ones they taught us back in the old days):

Below the LND (SFC, 850 charts), expect a 2-3 MB rise in pressures on the 12z chart and a 2-3 mb drop in pressure on the 00Z chart due to dirunals (if you are compairing the previous 12 hr chart). On the 850...expect a 10-20 meter rise on the 12Z & a 10-20 meter drop on the 00Z.

Above the LND...on the 700, 500, 300..etc....expect a 10-20 meter DROP in heights on the 12Z chart and a 10-20 meter rise on the 00Z chart.

This is useful during hurricane season if you want to see if a high over the SE US is breaking down or not. If the 12Z chart at 500mb showes height falls of 20 meters...then what you actually have is no height falls at all.

If...on the other hand...you have the same heights on the 12z cahrt...then you actually have 10-20 meter height rises.

But...+2 mb change on the "cold chart" (which is what the 12Z chart is called) is not a change...it's static....just like a -2mb change on the "hot chart" (the 00Z chart).

AFM, Thanks for that lesson (it actually was very helpful for future events), but I think it has become a different case this afternoon. The high pressure area has actually strengthened even further today...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif

The high is now up to 1045-1047mb this afternoon. That is a lot stronger than in what yesterday (a 6-8 mb rise), and as far as I can see, it is also much stronger than was expected.

What is your take on this AFM?

[gboudx]

Just checked in at the almighty JB's site and he has an update. He says "the cold will beat down the numbers like a rented mule in Texas and Gulf Coast." GFS out in la la land.

Forgive me for asking if this has been asked before, what is the time period JB is referring to? I would like to see if his prediction of the animal abuse actually comes true.

[Portastorm]

Just checked in at the almighty JB's site and he has an update. He says "the cold will beat down the numbers like a rented mule in Texas and Gulf Coast." GFS out in la la land.

Blah, blah, blah .... I guess I am no longer a true believer.

Several weeks back, he promised us 2-3 wintry wx events, including snow/ice deep into the Rio Grande Valley. We got one (the panhandle did get a snow event following our "ice storm"). He promised a day in the teens for Dallas for highs. We see how that won't happen and now this. After some initial success earlier this winter, I've been disappointed in his performance down here in Texas this winter.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just checked in at the almighty JB's site and he has an update. He says "the cold will beat down the numbers like a rented mule in Texas and Gulf Coast." GFS out in la la land.

Forgive me for asking if this has been asked before, what is the time period JB is referring to? I would like to see if his prediction of the animal abuse actually comes true.

Next week is when a mule or a Met (JB) will beaten.

[Johnny]

I read your jb quote ccttxhurrricanewatcher (dang, that's a long name..lol) and after reading it, it left alot of holes in its wake. Where in Texas and where along the gulf coast? He could mean north, Texas and he could mean Florida as far as the gulf coast is concerned.

I went and checked out his blog for myself which answered my questions. JB is saying the cold will beat down the numbers like a rented mule in Texas to the Gulf Coast. He then went on to say that Florida has one more shot of getting it with this next plunge of arctic air. That makes me think that he thinks the cold is coming to all the way to the Texas Gulf Coast since he mentioned Florida seperately.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just checked in at the almighty JB's site and he has an update. He says "the cold will beat down the numbers like a rented mule in Texas and Gulf Coast." GFS out in la la land.

Blah, blah, blah .... I guess I am no longer a true believer.

Several weeks back, he promised us 2-3 wintry wx events, including snow/ice deep into the Rio Grande Valley. We got one (the panhandle did get a snow event following our "ice storm"). He promised a day in the teens for Dallas for highs. We see how that won't happen and now this. After some initial success earlier this winter, I've been disappointed in his performance down here in Texas this winter.

I hear you loud and clear. He got the general idea we were going to be in period of below normal temps very correct. He missed all of the other stuff for the most part.

Now that we've taken a shot at him, watch everything he predicted happen next week.

[double D]

Just checked in at the almighty JB's site and he has an update. He says "the cold will beat down the numbers like a rented mule in Texas and Gulf Coast." GFS out in la la land.

Blah, blah, blah .... I guess I am no longer a true believer.

Several weeks back, he promised us 2-3 wintry wx events, including snow/ice deep into the Rio Grande Valley. We got one (the panhandle did get a snow event following our "ice storm"). He promised a day in the teens for Dallas for highs. We see how that won't happen and now this. After some initial success earlier this winter, I've been disappointed in his performance down here in Texas this winter.

Yes Portastorm, and think that no one on this thread ever bashes JB (because we are above that) like some of the other forums. I for one remember last year and how many times Texas would see record breaking temps and ice....never panned out. I do admit though, he sure knows how to get people excited over weather, but most of the time those same people are let down when all it amounted to was a bunch of hype. Got to love his one liners though.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I read your jb quote ccttxhurrricanewatcher (dang, that's a long name..lol) and after reading it, it left alot of holes in its wake. Where in Texas and where along the gulf coast? He could mean north, Texas and he could mean Florida as far as the gulf coast is concerned.

I went and checked out his blog for myself which answered my questions. JB is saying the cold will beat down the numbers like a rented mule in Texas to the Gulf Coast. He then went on to say that Florida has one more shot of getting it with this next plunge of arctic air. That makes me think that he thinks the cold is coming to all the way to the Texas Gulf Coast since he mentioned Florida seperately.

I'm not holding my breath. Next week when I'm covering up plants and all that stuff, I'll believe it.

Whenever JB says "Texas" could be affected, he could just be talking about Texarkana or Austin as far as we know . He tends to forget we are a large state with a variety or weather that hardly no other state in the union can duplicate, save maybe California.

[vbhoutex]

Just checked in at the almighty JB's site and he has an update. He says "the cold will beat down the numbers like a rented mule in Texas and Gulf Coast." GFS out in la la land.

Blah, blah, blah .... I guess I am no longer a true believer.

Several weeks back, he promised us 2-3 wintry wx events, including snow/ice deep into the Rio Grande Valley. We got one (the panhandle did get a snow event following our "ice storm"). He promised a day in the teens for Dallas for highs. We see how that won't happen and now this. After some initial success earlier this winter, I've been disappointed in his performance down here in Texas this winter.

Yes Portastorm, and think that no one on this thread ever bashes JB (because we are above that) like some of the other forums. I for one remember last year and how many times Texas would see record breaking temps and ice....never panned out. I do admit though, he sure knows how to get people excited over weather, but most of the time those same people are let down when all it amounted to was a bunch of hype. Got to love his one liners though.

That is his job(bolded). He is very good at pattern recognition from what I have seen, but pulling it all together(for any of us!!!!)seems to leave something to be desired.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z NAM at 84 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Continues it's "cold" look.

[JenBayles]

Just checked in at the almighty JB's site and he has an update. He says "the cold will beat down the numbers like a rented mule in Texas and Gulf Coast." GFS out in la la land.

Ah - I was wondering if someone would soon descend from the heights of Mr. Bastardi with the sacred screeds!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just checked in at the almighty JB's site and he has an update. He says "the cold will beat down the numbers like a rented mule in Texas and Gulf Coast." GFS out in la la land.

Ah - I was wondering if someone would soon descend from the heights of Mr. Bastardi with the sacred screeds!

Well someone is going to have egg all over their faces next week. Most of the NWS offices (according to the afternoon AFD's) are on board with the GFS and it warming it up somewhat accross the state. JB said what he said.

Sit back and relax and watch one of them bust.

[JenBayles]

I AM relaxed. No offense intended cc. K?

And now back to our regularly programmed afternoon discussion from HGX:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 312134
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CST WED JAN 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. RAINS HAVE RETURNED TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ON STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT.
UPPER LOW NOW SPINNING AROUND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA (I`VE LOST
COUNT OF HOW MANY OF THESE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WE`VE TRACKED
THIS WINTER SEASON) WILL HEAD THIS WAY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
AND WILL HELP TO PROVIDE THE AREA WILL BETTER RAIN CHANCES. AS THE DISTURBANCE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND CLOUDS JUST MIGHT SHOW SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING
UP. MODEL TIME SECTIONS POINT TOWARD SIGNIFICANT DRYING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. A STRONG AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOESN`T BUILD INTO THE AREA
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THIS MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME
RAIN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AND
THE GULF WATERS AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT...A DRY AND DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES SHAPE...AND
THIS PATTERN SETS THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A STRONG AND COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BRUNT
OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WITH THIS ARCTIC TAP LOOKS TO REMAINS NORTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT CLOUD INCREASE COMES BACK
INTO THE PICTURE STARTING NEXT TUESDAY...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY RAIN RETURNING
TO THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME LIFT BEGINS TO SHOW UP IN SOME
OF THE MODELS. HOWEVER...A CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR
AN EXTENDED DRY PATTERN. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN
CHANCES COME TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO HEAD THIS WAY.
&&

[JenBayles]

What an incredibly miserable winter day here in SE TX. With the rain and the cold, I'm frozen to the bone and will probably spend an hour in a hot bathtub with water up to my nose.

These are the Texas winter days that really wreck the rheumatiz...
<limps off to bump up the hot water heater>

[Extremeweatherguy]

here is an interesting note..

The Dallas NWS was not calling for any wintry precip. in the immediate Dallas area this morning (as of yesterday). However, it did happen. Take a look...

Dallas = http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KDAL.html

Ft. Worth = http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KFTW.html

And even Waco = http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KACT.html

news article = http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/dws/w ... fa2e3.html

Just goes to show how unpredictable the weather really is...even in the short term.

[gboudx]

Yep, it started on my drive in this morning. It sleeted with snow flurries for about 2 hours, off and on. Nothing accumulated here though.

[Johnny]

A relative of mine called my office earliar (around 1:30) and said it was snowing hard in Longview!

[Portastorm]

I'm not disagreeing with you and yes our Pro mets, especially our military members, have thick skin. They don't me or even a Mod to step in and save them.

I'm just communicating my concerns over what seems to be a pathological pattern by a member or two that, for whatever reason, feel the need to second guess and critique almost every single post made by our pro mets, every TV station, and the NWS. At some point someone needs to speak-up and just say "Stop the madness! If you want it to snow that frickin' bad then move to Buffalo!"

This behavior has driven away mets before and I don't want to see it happen again. That's all and I need to stop before crossing the line myself.

Jason, while I share your concern about chasing off pro mets from this forum ... I think using the word "pathological" is going a bit too far. In this instance, I am aware of two regular S2K contributors who have been locked into dialogue/debate with AFM. Both of them have never exhibited distasteful or inappropriate actions here to my knowledge. They are good folk who add a lot to this board.

In just the opposite way, I would hate to loose regular contributors like that. Heck, we're no different than the guy (or gal) on the coach who argues with play calling in football or shot selection in basketball. The only difference for us is that we get the blessing of having an actual coach or two on this forum to debate/dialogue with.

The level of abuse AFM put up with last tropical season was much, MUCH more significant and ugly than what I have seen here in the last few days. And I think if he had issue with it, he'd let us know.

I just think there's a healthy balance we can achieve here ...

[Extremeweatherguy]

What an incredibly miserable winter day here in SE TX. With the rain and the cold, I'm frozen to the bone and will probably spend an hour in a hot bathtub with water up to my nose.

These are the Texas winter days that really wreck the rheumatiz...
<limps off to bump up the hot water heater>

You're right, it is pretty nasty out there. As of 5:10pm I am currently getting a heavy rain shower here with wind and a temperature of 40-degrees. It is miserable.

[jasons2k]

Hey Portastorm,

For the most part I agree with you. I don't think anything here has fully crossed the line. But today was close IMO.

I am keenly aware of what happened over the summer.

The winter back-and-forth has been carried over from last year. I just don't want to it escalate to the level it did in the Tropics forum and drive people away. I don't want to see our mets OR or members leave either. I would just like to see people think a bit before posting, that's all, so we can indeed acheive that healthy balance you alluded to.