TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[Air Force Met]

AFM, the little "Straw man" your trying to create is not working. You have heard of the fallacy of logic of creating a " Straw man". Politicians create "Straw Men" all the time to misrepresent their opponents point of view, and that is what you are doing here. Here is a quote from you" However, I was curious what aggie was seeing that showed the coldest air driving down into Texas." Now, I'm going to ask you to find where I said the "Coldest" as in the motherload of the air would be coming down into Texas. Or, show me where I even used the word coldest in any of my post. Having said that, the last 3 runs of the NAM have been very cold for Texas. Yes, I am using the word very cold as in 20 or so degrees below normal for a couple days, which has been my contention all a long.

Also...when I said "coldest air deep into Texas..." my apologies. That could have been said better. That is what I gathered you were saying when I read "NAM continues its trend of driving the cold air deep into Texas." To me...that said the cold air is going straight into Texas....and I think if most people were to read that statement...and not know what was going on...they would take way the same idea...that you were saying the cold air was coming straight south. I mean...isn't that what "NAM continues its trend of driving the cold air deep into Texas" sounds like?"...and that is what I was wondering about. You have to remember...I think in terms of meteorology. When we make a statement like "NAM continues its trend of driving the cold air deep into Texas..." around here...we mean it like this" The NAM is taking the surge of cold air due south towards us."

I also need to remember that others are not mets...but in all honesty...that is WHY I asked the QUESTION on the previous page. This was not a "straw-man" tactic....so don't get all defensive. In order for it to be a straw-man...you have to be an opponent....and as far as I know...you aren't. All I am doing is making statments on what I think will happen and trying to ask some questions when others make statements. There actually has to be a discussion/debate about something before one can present a strawman...and as far as I know...you never replied to my statement on page 8...or the question about your analysis today.

[jeff]

Upper low off S CA will bring rain back to the area by this afternoon.

Discussion:


Active southern stream flow continues to result in periods of rainfall every 24-38 hours across TX. Next storm system will eject across the state tonight and Thursday with widespread rains. Upper forcing will once again develop a coastal surface trough which in turn will sling Gulf moisture inland over the cold dome at the surface…same pattern for the last 3 weeks. Isentropic upglide is already evident SW of the metro areas this morning where mid level deck has become established and central TX radar is already showing light returns.


Lead short wave over central TX will graze the area this afternoon providing a chance of light rain although much of this may not reach the ground as the near surface layer in very dry. Main storm system comes out tonight and Thursday with 150-160kt jet across SE TX. Expected widespread lift to result in widespread rains…some moderate to heavy. Coastal warm frontal boundary may attempt to push inland, however it should be held to the coast. Instability above the cold dome may result in a few thunderstorms some of which could produce small hail along and S of I-10.


Extended:
Arctic air outbreak headed for the SE US and E coast with a glancing blow for TX. May see some problems in FL with the citrus crops which have already taken a beating in CA this winter. Lack of strong arctic high pressure and no real bitterly cold temps. over NW Canada along with steering patterns more aimed just to our east should keep the real cold stuff east of TX. Arctic boundary should arrive late Friday with highs over the weekend only in the 40’s and 50’s under mostly sunny skies. May need to take a close look at lows both Sunday and Monday mornings as we could see 20’s across the area. Main difference is the lack of sub-tropical influences for the next 4 days after Thursday which should lead to dry but cold weather. Arctic dome looks to begin to modify by the middle of next week, although confidence is low with the potential for additional cold surges and increasing sub-tropical activity by the middle of next week.

Note: Major Hurricane Impact Study: The results of the Independent Insurance Agents of TX study found the following should a major hurricane strike the TX coast.

52.2 billion lost in gross state product

43.8 billion lost in personal income

617,000 jobs lost

1.8 billion lost in fiscal revenue


Direct hit on Houston Galveston:


73.0 billion in lost output

863,000 jobs lost

2.5 billion lost in fiscal revenue


Other Stats:

The Beaumont-Houston area is home to over 4 million barrels of petroleum products per day (87% of the TX total) and (25% of the US total) all of which are located within the coastal hurricane zone. Additionally 405 chemical plants employing 36,000 persons and 40% of the nations capacity for basic chemicals are found in the impact area.

Port of Houston:

65.6 metric tons of cargo (10% of the US port volume)

Houston accounts for 56% of TX international trade by sea in terms of value and 39% in terms of tonnage.

Regional Dependency on industry in the impact zone:

Houston/Galveston area: 43% (48% regional income)

Matagorda Bay area: 57% ( 60% regional income)

Coastal Bend (Corpus): 42% (48% regional income)

Beaumont area: 51% (56% regional income)

Rio Grande Valley: 40% (47% regional income)

39% (44% regional income) of TX total output is linked to industry located within the hurricane impact zone.

[Portastorm]

Since we appear to be in clarifying mode ... I'm a "him" not a "her." And I have the lack of listening skills to prove it, or so my wife tells me!

[Johnny]

AFM, do you see any differences in the NAM and the ECMWF on what they are depicting with this next surge of arctic air?

[Air Force Met]

Since we appear to be in clarifying mode ... I'm a "him" not a "her." And I have the lack of listening skills to prove it, or so my wife tells me!

How bout we just say "it." that fits me sometimes.

And I knew that...for some strange reason...I was thinking SG when I was typing...I was even picturing the Bon Jovi avatar when I typed your handle....even though she lives here and you are there.

But hey...she got called a Dude earlier. Maybe you all could just switch.

Sorry

[Johnny]

Portastorm, I saw where AFM called you a her. I was like crap! Hear I was thinking you were a him for a couple of years now. LOL!!!

Thanks for screwing with my head AFM.

[Portastorm]

Since we appear to be in clarifying mode ... I'm a "him" not a "her." And I have the lack of listening skills to prove it, or so my wife tells me!

How bout we just say "it." that fits me sometimes.

And I knew that...for some strange reason...I was thinking SG when I was typing...I was even picturing the Bon Jovi avatar when I typed your handle....even though she lives here and you are there.

But hey...she got called a Dude earlier. Maybe you all could just switch.

Sorry

AFM, absolutely no problem! This whole little exchange has provided me plenty of laughs to get me through the workday.

Back to the discussion though ... and I can't speak for aggiecutter ... but when I look at the 12z NAM, it does appear like the orientation of the broadscale trough is a little north-northeast to south-southwest. Of course when you look at the center of the lowest thicknesses and coldest values, its almost over Minnesota/Wisconsin. Maybe that is what he is getting at. We all could probably use some more Met 101 tutoring from you though. I know I could.

And something else I wanted to address re: an earlier post of yours ... I like your "leeside slide" phrase and over the years its those outbreaks that bring Texas' its coldest airmasses. This weekend we do not see that kind of pattern whatsoever.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, do you see any differences in the NAM and the ECMWF on what they are depicting with this next surge of arctic air?

They are very close...especially in the upper levels. The NAM 850 temps depict the cold trof down the central plains...the EURO is more broad and extends from the plains into the TN valley. The temps themselves are fairly close.

One thing about the NAM temps...remember during the last outbreak....they were on the cold side...especially at the 72-84 hour point.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, absolutely no problem! This whole little exchange has provided me plenty of laughs to get me through the workday.

Back to the discussion though ... and I can't speak for aggiecutter ... but when I look at the 12z NAM, it does appear like the orientation of the broadscale trough is a little north-northeast to south-southwest. Of course when you look at the center of the lowest thicknesses and coldest values, its almost over Minnesota/Wisconsin. Maybe that is what he is getting at. We all could probably use some more Met 101 tutoring from you though. I know I could.

And something else I wanted to address re: an earlier post of yours ... I like your "leeside slide" phrase and over the years its those outbreaks that bring Texas' its coldest airmasses. This weekend we do not see that kind of pattern whatsoever.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

Looking at the jet...that trof should move out fairly quickly...which is why the cold air will begin to receed by Sunday. There is a 200 knot jet over the Ohio valley. That will take the sharp oriented trof and broaden it out real quick and its that flow over the high that will push teh cold air east. We'll get other shots later...but more and more they will go east as that jet max spins up the polar vortex into a big circle and the ridge in the west breaks down.

[Johnny]

So I guess the NAM also brings the center of the cold into the central plains then scoots it off to the east and southeast like the Euro? From what Aggiecutter was posting, I was under the impression that the NAM was showing colder air coming into Texas than what the Euro was depicting.

[jasons2k]

I don't want to get in the middle of things but I feel like I must say this much.

Our pro mets are very gifted forecasters and they provide invaluable information on S2K that frankly, starting ~10 years ago, was not available to the general public. There was no such thing as logging into a public internet site and reading a detailed discussion/commentary from 3 or 4 different pro mets specific to your home area. And there was no such thing as the general public accessing model data, much less discussing them or debating the outcome.

I can't truly speak for them, but my feeling is that they post here for their love of meteorology, their love of teaching, and their love of sharing information. This is the epitome of a good samaritan giving back to the general public.

Those of you that feel the need to constantly challenge our pro mets for saying something just b/c you don't like the facts, or you don't like the outcome: I suggest that you choose your words carefully, really think about the value of what you're posting, or just move to Yellowknife and then a debate won't be necessary.

If you are not sure if you are crossing the line then just sit on it for awhile. Put some thought into your question or comment. Use the PM system. It's one thing to ask a question or to debate a solution with hard evidence; it's quite another to start name calling.

This forum is neither a peeing contest nor a game of one-upping each other. It's an educational forum for us who love the weather. Use it as such. If that doesn't sit well with you, there are plenty of other forums out there just for trashing each other and I suggest you go there - and see how long it takes you to earn a "weenie tag".

[Air Force Met]

So I guess the NAM also brings the center of the cold into the central plains then scoots it off to the east and southeast like the Euro? From what Aggiecutter was posting, I was under the impression that the NAM was showing colder air coming into Texas than what the Euro was depicting.

The 00Z runs shows the cold trof at 850 a little more west on the NAM than on the EURO. The 12Z run of the NAM showed this cold trof a little more to the east. The 12Z run of the EURO shows temps not as cold as they were...and a little warmer than the NAM. The NAM has DFW at about -5 or so for DFW at 850...the 12z EURO has them at -3.6. MOnday they are forecasted to be 4C. On MOnday...the Euro was forecasting -3.7C for Monday. And SAT is the coldest that DFW gets at 850 according to the EURO. After that...it's above freezing at 850. Warming up to 7C on Wed at 12Z.

TXK...MON at 12z now +1.1C...was -6.2 two days ago...
OKC...MON at 12Z - -.2C / was -5.7C
IAH - SAT: +1.9C / SUN: +1.5C / MON: +5.4C / it was -1.6C 2 days ago.
AMA: +2.1 on Mon / was -2.4C 2 days ago
LIT Mon -2.5C / was -8.6
TOP Mon -15.7 / was -15.9...so cold air in place up north...because of flow
STL Mon -19.3 / Was -14.2

So...the EURO is a LOT warmer for Monday and into the future than it was just 2 days ago...for Texas on the order of 4.5 - 7C (that almost 13 degrees F). It also shows that the cold air is coming down the northern plains and midwest and going east...and we are warming...which is what the NAM is showing with the subtle changes b/w runs.

So...now people have to make up their minds which one they want to believe...the NAM (which only goes out to 84 hours and might show the same thing if it went out further) or the EURO...which keeps the cold bottled up to the north.

[jasons2k]

Furthermore, I doubt our pro mets have much time to babysit some of the comments directed towards them. They are busy people with fulltime jobs and lives too.

Sadly, some of our pro mets have either left S2K or gone on extended hiatus because of continuous, non-deserved frustration.

When push comes to shove, I think most members here would choose for our pro mets to stay rather than said attackers.

[gboudx]

I guess I missed something. Where was the attack on a pro-met?

[jasons2k]

gb, unfortunately it's not a one-time event or by a single individual, although a handful have been pretty relentless in the constant second guessing and "we'll see who's right" implied second-guessing.

I could have posted the same last week or the week before but held my tongue. But now it's getting old.

[srainhoutx]

gb, unfortunately it's not a one-time event or by a single individual, although a handful have been pretty relentless in the constant second guessing and "we'll see who's right" implied second-guessing.

I could have posted the same last week or the week before but held my tongue. But now it's getting old.

Agrees!

[gboudx]

I don't know schlitz. It comes with the territory, know what I mean? If anybody, amateur, pro or casual observer is gonna participate on a public forum, then they should be ready for differing opinions, no matter how wrong those are. But that's why there are board admins and mods to police the boards and keep things civil. IMO, the s2k mods/admins do a good job of keeping things in order, and this is one of the strictest boards I've participated on. If any member thinks they are being attacked, then there is an appropriate way of dealing with that, i.e. contact a mod/admin.

[jasons2k]

I'm not disagreeing with you and yes our Pro mets, especially our military members, have thick skin. They don't me or even a Mod to step in and save them.

I'm just communicating my concerns over what seems to be a pathological pattern by a member or two that, for whatever reason, feel the need to second guess and critique almost every single post made by our pro mets, every TV station, and the NWS. At some point someone needs to speak-up and just say "Stop the madness! If you want it to snow that frickin' bad then move to Buffalo!"

This behavior has driven away mets before and I don't want to see it happen again. That's all and I need to stop before crossing the line myself.

[double D]

Since we appear to be in clarifying mode ... I'm a "him" not a "her." And I have the lack of listening skills to prove it, or so my wife tells me!

Thank goodnes, because for a minute there I thought your were one of the most masculine sounding females around with phrases like (hey bud, and dude).

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just checked in at the almighty JB's site and he has an update. He says "the cold will beat down the numbers like a rented mule in Texas and Gulf Coast." GFS out in la la land.