Southern States - LA-MS-AL-GA-TN Winter Storm Potential

[GeneratorPower]

GFS @ 12z has freezing line right through the Tennessee River on Thursday morning @ 12z (6am Central Time), along with a healthy dose of precip.

This means the GFS has trended SLIGHTLY cooler for North AL, MS areas. It also has healthy QPF (precipitation). This slight adjustment won't have a material effect on the forecast but it DOES mean that the model isn't trending WARMER at the surface, like it was with the previous run.

EDIT: This is going to be a close call one way or another, which is par-for-the-course with Southern States Winter WX.

[icicle]

Its really exciting. It seems that a situation like this could go either way with rain, sleet, or snow, and with the mets themselves uncertain at this point just makes it even more exciting.

[Lowpressure]

At least we don't have " the ground is so warm due to recent temperatures any winter weather may not accumulate" the ground is solid here. We tilled up a mulch bed yesterday, trust me, the ground is plenty cold.

[icicle]

I agree, and its supposed to get down to about 17 here tonight, which will only help things more.

[GeneratorPower]

They were mentioning the models trending warmer for the last couple of runs but I'm not seeing it at the surface (10 meter) plots. I'm seeing it hold steady with the freezing line right across us over the last four runs of the GFS, if anything, creeping southward a TAD.

Surface features at this distance mean little to me because I know that even at 3hrs out the pro mets can't give us anything more than a ballpark precip type guess.

[GeneratorPower]

I agree, and its supposed to get down to about 17 here tonight, which will only help things more.

I'm concerned that even if it is cold tonight it could warm significantly tommorrow, depending on cloud cover.

[icicle]

Hi's are supposed to be in the upper 30's to lower 40's here tomorrow.

[Lowpressure]

These BORDERLINE scenarios can go either way- all rain or get out the shovel. Rarely does it seem you start out as snow then transition through the winter mixed bag as forecasted. Local NWS has been dropping high foe a while now, Wed has gone from 51 down to 39 for a high. Wed low has been pretty constant at 24-26 degrees. Timing of cloud cover then precip will be key for many.

[icicle]

My local T.V. mets are just saying that we ''might have some slippery travel problems tomorrow nite" I dont think their sold on it yet.

[icicle]

I just heard the weather channel use the term ''possible ice storm'' for us this go around.

[GeneratorPower]

I just heard the weather channel use the term ''possible ice storm'' for us this go around.

An Ice Storm is defined as 0.25" or more of ice accumulation. Very possible, but we cannot say whether it is probable.

[icicle]

I hope we get sleet instead of frz rain. I would love some snow, but I dont think the snow line will make it down this far south, but I could be wrong.

EDIT:we had 2 ice storms here within 4 yrs (94, 98), so I would rather have rain than ice.

[HarlequinBoy]

Little Rock updated their SWS and AFD. It's a pretty informative AFD.

[HarlequinBoy]

NASHVILLE:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
324 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-311100-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
324 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007

...SNOW AND SLEET EXPECTED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK.
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST...CAUSING
MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SURROUNDING AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT...IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. MANY AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO
1 INCH OF ACCUMULATION BY 6 AM THURSDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SLEET AND RAIN FOR MOST OF THE MID STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 COULD
SEE ANOTHER INCH OF ACCUMULATION ON THURSDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE MID STATE WILL
SEE A MORE RAPID CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPES COULD CHANGE. IF THE STORM TRACKS FARTHER
SOUTH...THEN THE MID STATE WOULD HAVE MORE COLD AIR AND
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. IF THE STORMS MOVES FARTHER
NORTH...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME TOO WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ALSO UNCERTAIN...BUT
AT THIS TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
COMMON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

SNOW AND ICE COULD MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SO PEOPLE SHOULD MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER STORM ACROSS THE REGION.

BIRMINGHAM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
218 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007

ALZ011>015-017>029-034>038-310600-
BIBB-BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-
ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-PICKENS-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
218 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007

...A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH
OR TEMPORARILY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN FROM
AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 9 AM. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FROM HAMILTON...TO ONEONTA...TO
WEDOWEE. THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...SO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.


HUNTSVILLE:
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-311100-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
300 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007

...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...A RISK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INITIALLY WILL FALL MAINLY AS SNOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET...AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER. AS WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ALOFT...THE SNOW AND SLEET MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER WARMING SHOULD
CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN FOR ALL OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR FURTHER FORECASTS
AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE.

MEMPHIS:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-311000-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVILLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
338 PM CST TUE JAN 30 2007

...POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE MID SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS AREAS
NEAR THE TENNESSEE MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE...AND SNOW PRIMARILY NORTH
OF I-40.

ON THURSDAY AS WARM AIR TRIES TO MOVE NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND REMAIN
AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. HOWEVER ALONG
THE I 40 CORRIDOR A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE RESULTING
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
TELEVISION STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

[GeneratorPower]

This one's a nail-biter. Time for popcorn and pulling up a chair to the window.

[HarlequinBoy]

Wow, a degree or two is going to make a huge difference with this event.

Forecast for NW Mississippi:


Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 39. East southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Periods of snow and sleet, mainly after midnight. Low around 31. East wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday: Periods of snow, freezing rain and sleet before noon, then periods of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. High near 35. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow before midnight, then a chance for flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.

Friday Night: A chance of flurries. Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 33.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 39.

Sunday Night: A chance of flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 38.

[GeneratorPower]

Yea, icicle, and in more ways than one. For example, the p-type could change based upon temp at different heights, not just at the surface.

[icicle]

wow, I really thought I would have awakened to a WsW or an advisory. maybe its not going to be as bad as they originally thought??

[ams30721]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
438 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...ICY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

.A COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS NORTHEAST.
A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET..FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>037-045-047-311745-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.A.0001.070201T0800Z-070201T2000Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-DEKALB-WALTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...ATHENS...DECATUR
438 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTH COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE
MIX CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES INCLUDING TREES AND POWER LINES. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

[b]A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AND
CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.[/b]

[icicle]

We were forecast to hit 41 here today, but I dont think we'll make it because clouds have moved in. we currently have a temp of 30, dew point 6.