TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[wxman57]

BTW (for those wondering): The actual GFS surface number being forecasted for IAH (as of the 18z GFS run) is about 27-degrees for Sunday morning.

27 would fit perfectly into my 12-15 degree below normal call. That would be 15 degrees below normal.

BTW...look at the jet at 250 mb off the east coast...200 knots

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

You're right. 27-degrees would fit into your forecast nicely. Looks like you are in good shape as of now.

I think the colder air will arrive beyond this Sunday. Could well be 27 on Sunday before the next few shots of Arctic air move down the following week. But we just don't know what kind of airmass will eventually affect SE TX next week.

[wall_cloud]

I guess it depends on where in TX you reside. Since January 11, the warmest we have climbed is a balmy 44. I expect we don't see temps above freezing here but maybe 3 of the next 7+ days. Our snowpack is finally receding, but its sure worked us over and is still there to the north.

[Yankeegirl]

Well I would love to get some colder air here.... Im not ready for winter to be over yet!!!

[CajunMama]

hey y'all, could you help frack out here? http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 82#1513982

[southerngale]

hey y'all, could you help frack out here? http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 82#1513982

Oh wow....I was posting a thread in here at the exact same time you were posting this. LOL - creepy!

[Extremeweatherguy]

just sent in my nomination.

[Air Force Met]

I guess it depends on where in TX you reside. Since January 11, the warmest we have climbed is a balmy 44. I expect we don't see temps above freezing here but maybe 3 of the next 7+ days. Our snowpack is finally receding, but its sure worked us over and is still there to the north.

I agree. I think regardless of where you are...you will probably see lows 10-15 degrees below normal (maybe a little more in the mid-west). Highs are a little tricky. 10-15 degrees below normal the more south you are...20-25+ below normal the more north you are.

Also...the further north and east you are...the more 10-15+ degree below normal days you will have. The further south and west you are...well...I think there will only be a couple of those days.

I don't expect to see any record lows broken...or at least not very many...maybe some low max's.

[wxman57]

Well I would love to get some colder air here.... Im not ready for winter to be over yet!!!

I'm dreaming of a nice warm (90+ degree) July day when I get back from a 50 mile bike ride with a salt-encrusted face. I'd take that over sub-75 degree temps any day!

An interesting thought. When will be the next day that IAH reaches 75F or greater?

[jasons2k]

Off topic ... that's a nice avatar Jason!

Good to see that ...

Thanks Michael, and he's doing very good.

[vbhoutex]

I greatly respect and appreciate the opinions and the knowledge that all of the pro-mets and amatuers are putting forth in trying to "pin down" what is going to happen with this "outbreak. What I don't think I understand or may not have read enough of is-what is going to be the source region for this "outbreak"? Is it going to be a cross polar flow from Siberia or the polar vortex that is setting up over the N Great Lakes/S Canada? If the source region is Siberia are the temps their running at or below normal ? If the source region is Siberia will it feed into this already cold polar vortex and cool it further? I know some of this, if not all, has at least been talked about, but can anyone give me a concise answer?(If that is possible this far out)

I have yet to see this answered. I guess it is partially answered by some of the posts but where will the true source region for the next 1-1/2 weeks worth of cold come from?

[jasons2k]

Well I would love to get some colder air here.... Im not ready for winter to be over yet!!!

I'm dreaming of a nice warm (90+ degree) July day when I get back from a 50 mile bike ride with a salt-encrusted face. I'd take that over sub-75 degree temps any day!

An interesting thought. When will be the next day that IAH reaches 75F or greater?

I'm with you on that! Bring on the pool weather!!

[srainhoutx]

Well I would love to get some colder air here.... Im not ready for winter to be over yet!!!

I'm dreaming of a nice warm (90+ degree) July day when I get back from a 50 mile bike ride with a salt-encrusted face. I'd take that over sub-75 degree temps any day!

An interesting thought. When will be the next day that IAH reaches 75F or greater?

I'm about ready to go back to the Florida Keys for another 5 years

[PTPatrick]

I can vouch for the snowpack playing havoc with temp forecasts of late. here in denver, I have seen them 20 degrees off...(ie yesterday the temp was supposed to be 32 and it climbed to 51 in Downtown Denver. That was mostly do to chinook though and it dropped back to 20's within an hour of sunset. in any case. the plains of eastern colorado have been very cold. Greeley(north of Denver in a valley, and not subject to the downslope flow to warm it) has scarcely broken the freezing mark in weeks. Even DIA a little ways from the foothills has not seen much above 40's in a while. In downtown we have fallen short of forecast highs a few time due to all the snow.

our guys are calling for a high of 7(in the morning they say) Friday with low teens Saturday, 20's Sunday....the discussion included some hesetation with warming things up Sunday as Euro still wants to hold the ridge off to the west coast, and gfs wanted to warm us up. Also, its seems like 7 is a little optimistic for later runs. This cold air tends to sort of get stuck around the western slope of the mountains until the NW kick it out, so i wouldnt be surprised if the warm up occured later.

In any case, with the right conditions, i would think single digits to low teen highs would not be out of the question in the TX panhandle, esp if Denver finds itself below zero by lunch time Friday.

[Air Force Met]

I'm with you on that! Bring on the pool weather!!

But does it have to get 95 with a 105 heat index?

'Cause I really hate that.

Maybe I need to get rich and by a second house in the mountains for summer. Oh wait...I'm a weather guy. Never mind.

[Portastorm]

Yeah well ... y'all will get your pool weather soon enough. Don't worry!

All some of us wanted with this cold was a little snow ... is that too much to ask?!

After looking at the sunny and cold forecast for this weekend, I feel like the man who was served a delicious top sirloin steak and given only a spoon with which to eat it.

[TexasStooge]

Here's some good news and bad news for North Texas. The good news is that the wintry precip will fall in areas near the Red River. The bad news is that we're still not gonna warm up anytime soon.

[Furious George]

Incredible - we went from possible 1989 conditions to now this. Maybe now I understand why the NWS is so conservative. Though i still think we can colder than what they are suggesting (20's still possible), I think a winter weather event for SE TX is now almost non existant through mid next week due to combo of dry air and warmer than expected conditions.

From Houston NWS:

THE MODELS WERE A BIT WARMER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN FROM THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT...BUT WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD PROVIDE A WELCOME DRY WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS SE TX FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Incredible - we went from possible 1989 conditions to now this. Maybe now I understand why the NWS is so conservative. Though i still think we can colder than what they are suggesting (20's still possible), I think a winter weather event for SE TX is now almost non existant through mid next week due to combo of dry air and warmer than expected conditions.

From Houston NWS:

THE MODELS WERE A BIT WARMER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN FROM THE
PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE WILL BE A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT...BUT WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD PROVIDE A WELCOME DRY WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS SE TX FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

Texas (south of I-10, including Houston proper) = Winter Cancel.

It's all over folks.

[double D]

Yeah well ... y'all will get your pool weather soon enough. Don't worry!

All some of us wanted with this cold was a little snow ... is that too much to ask?!

After looking at the sunny and cold forecast for this weekend, I feel like the man who was served a delicious top sirloin steak and given only a spoon with which to eat it.

Tell me about Portastorm, I for sure thought with such a cold pattern setting up that we would see at least a couple of chances for snow. Now with a dry northwest flow setting up and dwindling chances of arctic cold it looks like we might have to wait until next year. Oh well, I might go down to Corpus and build a snowman anyways (out of sand that is).

[Portastorm]

Yeah well ... y'all will get your pool weather soon enough. Don't worry!

All some of us wanted with this cold was a little snow ... is that too much to ask?!

After looking at the sunny and cold forecast for this weekend, I feel like the man who was served a delicious top sirloin steak and given only a spoon with which to eat it.

Tell me about Portastorm, I for sure thought with such a cold pattern setting up that we would see at least a couple of chances for snow. Now with a dry northwest flow setting up and dwindling chances of arctic cold it looks like we might have to wait until next year. Oh well, I might go down to Corpus and build a snowman anyways (out of sand that is).

Yes double D ... you and I will have to be content with our 30-minute snow flurry from a few weeks back. That was our winter excitement, along with the cruddy ice storm.