TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[Johnny]

This is a bit different EWG. Where's the bitterly cold air? As AFM pointed out, their really isn't any major league arctic air sitting up in Alaska or the northwestern territories of Canada at the present time.

[Kennethb]

Ensembles continue to show no very cold for the south. If so, only briefly:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[wxman57]

This is a bit different EWG. Where's the bitterly cold air? As AFM pointed out, their really isn't any major league arctic air sitting up in Alaska or the northwestern territories of Canada at the present time.

You're looking in the wrong area, look closer. Just north of the Great Lakes is a large pool of -30 to -40 degree air. That airmass will be building westward then southward. Additional cold air will be coming across the Pole later this week, but there's nothing in NW Canada yet.

[Portastorm]

This morning's European run ... 0z ... looks a lot colder for us in the southern Plains than yesterday's:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

[Air Force Met]

This is a bit different EWG. Where's the bitterly cold air? As AFM pointed out, their really isn't any major league arctic air sitting up in Alaska or the northwestern territories of Canada at the present time.

You're looking in the wrong area, look closer. Just north of the Great Lakes is a large pool of -30 to -40 degree air. That airmass will be building westward then southward. Additional cold air will be coming across the Pole later this week, but there's nothing in NW Canada yet.

I see that air...I just don't think it makes it to SETX. Its sitting under the polar vortex (or what will become the PV) and that area is not conducive for the building of high pressure...so basically...the cold air will follow the flow...and the flow never dumps it from it's current area due south...and since it won't be attached to a shallow/dense high...it will be influenced by that flow more, which is why I think it heads more east after it gets dumped into the lower 48. A frigid airmass sitting north of the great lakes with the Polar Vortex in it's forecasted location is a classic setup for an arctic outbreak in the midwest and east coast.

And by the time the colder air starts to arrive later this week...there still isn't a real impressive high to dive it straight south. Plus...the air isn't that cold. Before our last cold snap (a week or so), temps were runing around -40 to -50 in AK and NW Canada. The models are progging some -20F air to come in. Big diff in how that air behaves as opposed to the former.

I think we will get a cold day...but not frigid...not unless there is a large high to transport it...I thikn it's going east of us. Just my 2 cents.

[TexasStooge]

Hopefully, it's not gonna be as bad as a couple weeks ago here in DFW.

[double D]

I haven't heard much input from JB lately on here. Does that mean he is focusing more on the east and southeast part of the US?

Fwiw, the GFS has been consistently showing the bulk of the cold air just missing us to the east. I know I'm looking at the surface features, but it has been remarkably consistent (good or bad). What is funny is that this week might be colder than next weekend and early next week.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FT WORTH TX
MON JAN 29 2007

THE CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD TURN ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE BEST BET FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENCOUNTERS SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED GULF MOISTURE AND
POSITIVE VERTICAL MOTIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

AFTER THE RAINFALL...A SERIES OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC COLD FRONTS SPILL
INTO TEXAS...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. WITH THE FRONTS AND STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS FROM THE GULF WILL END...AND DRY...BUT COLD WEATHER
RESUMES. WE HAVE GONE COLDER THAN MOS LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...IN EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL DOSES OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTH.

[Below N.O.]

I haven't heard much input from JB lately on here. Does that mean he is focusing more on the east and southeast part of the US?

Fwiw, the GFS has been consistently showing the bulk of the cold air just missing us to the east. I know I'm looking at the surface features, but it has been remarkably consistent (good or bad). What is funny is that this week might be colder than next weekend and early next week.

Yes, it would appear that for all of the much advertised "HYPE" of the Arctic cold that was coming in a 10 days, no... 7 days, no wait.... 10 days, well anyway, it ain't coming folks. We can all go back to our regularly scheduled lives. This only amount to possibly 1 or 2 light freezes in 7 days or is it 10 days? Just wait til next year, you'll see!

[Portastorm]

I see that both AFM and Jeff Lindner are of the thought that the arctic airmass will focus its brunt to our (Texas) north and east. Guess this is one time when I hope they both bust! (no offense guys, I respect your knowledge and forecasting a great deal).

Would like to see one more slug of winter down here before spring arrives and sets the table for our usual blazing summer.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I haven't heard much input from JB lately on here. Does that mean he is focusing more on the east and southeast part of the US?

Fwiw, the GFS has been consistently showing the bulk of the cold air just missing us to the east. I know I'm looking at the surface features, but it has been remarkably consistent (good or bad). What is funny is that this week might be colder than next weekend and early next week.

JB hasn't updated since yesterday morning.

I was just taking a look at some of the Texas NWS AFD's from overnight and ironicaly some of the offices that were ho hum about this front this weekend are now bullish on it. Most of them are throwing out the GFS numbers and going with the Euro's take. It does sound more and more like this will be a typical front. Nothing really to get too excited about after all.

[aggiecutter]

The 0z EURO dumps the cold air, however cold is going to be, straight down into Texas. The trough deepens on Friday and gets progressively deeper into Texas through Monday. The link is below. You can see it for yourself. BTW, I got down to 23 last night with that little front that came through this weekend. And, the Shreveport NWS has put snow in the forecast for Texarkana on Wednesday night. Everything is following the 83 and 89 pattern to a T. That doesn't mean it will be as cold as it was then, but the bulk of the cold, whatever that may be, will eventually come on down into the southern plains.

0z EURO: Look at friday through Monday.The EURO is dropping that trough right into the center part of the country, and that includes Texas, as it gets progressively deeper Friday through Monday. It doesnt come down for one day and then pull off to the east. It just amplifies more and more for 3 days. Be sure and set the initialization time to 0z Monday the 29th.

LINK:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500

[Portastorm]

aggiecutter ... you just might get your winter weather event last this week. HPC has Texarkana in the "10%" prob area.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_composite.gif

[double D]

I haven't heard much input from JB lately on here. Does that mean he is focusing more on the east and southeast part of the US?

Fwiw, the GFS has been consistently showing the bulk of the cold air just missing us to the east. I know I'm looking at the surface features, but it has been remarkably consistent (good or bad). What is funny is that this week might be colder than next weekend and early next week.

JB hasn't updated since yesterday morning.

I was just taking a look at some of the Texas NWS AFD's from overnight and ironicaly some of the offices that were ho hum about this front this weekend are now bullish on it. Most of them are throwing out the GFS numbers and going with the Euro's take. It does sound more and more like this will be a typical front. Nothing really to get too excited about after all.

Isn't that the truth CC. Anyway I really don't care if it gets too cold next weekend because it's supposed to be dry and sunny. To me that's just wasting good cold weather when it could be snowing instead.

[Portastorm]

The 12z NAM run ... shows a direct north-to-south discharge of cold polar ("arctic?") air at 84hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Sure, it's only a 1040mb high ... but I would think that if this were to verify ... looking into the weekend, we'd be looking at 15-20 degrees below normal temps.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I haven't heard much input from JB lately on here. Does that mean he is focusing more on the east and southeast part of the US?

Fwiw, the GFS has been consistently showing the bulk of the cold air just missing us to the east. I know I'm looking at the surface features, but it has been remarkably consistent (good or bad). What is funny is that this week might be colder than next weekend and early next week.

JB hasn't updated since yesterday morning.

I was just taking a look at some of the Texas NWS AFD's from overnight and ironicaly some of the offices that were ho hum about this front this weekend are now bullish on it. Most of them are throwing out the GFS numbers and going with the Euro's take. It does sound more and more like this will be a typical front. Nothing really to get too excited about after all.

Isn't that the truth CC. Anyway I really don't care if it gets too cold next weekend because it's supposed to be dry and sunny. To me that's just wasting good cold weather when it could be snowing instead.

Nah, I'll take the "cold" anyway we can get it. Why? Because in about 3 months when the temps are pushing 90+ and the humidity is 60%+ on a daily basis till October we'll be wishing it was cold. Plus the more cool to cold weather we get, the cooler the Gulf Waters will go, thus they'll warmup slower in the spring into early summer which is a plus when it comes to tropical storms and the such. Adds a little less fuel to the fire.

[double D]

Yeah, I didn't think about that CC., you make a good point. I remember last year was so mild during winter that when summer came it felt like we had 8 months of heat and humidity. We really lucked out that we didn't have any hurricanes in the GOM, because it could have been real ugly with such high sea temperatures...oh well back to the topic at hand.

[jasons2k]

I have not had time to post very much but I have been lurking and looking at the model runs every day.

My thoughts haven't changed since last week. It just doesn't look like anything ominous for us here in SE Texas. I said that last week, was called on it, but I stand by it still.

I think it's pretty obvious places like the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast are really in for a doozie, but the setup still doesn't look like (to me) one to discharge frigid air to straight down to Texas. The whole setup, the block, the source region, etc. are just too far east IMO to give us anything more than a glancing blow. Yes, a day or two of cold weather, maybe one morning into the upper 20s (and I'm starting to doubt that), but by no means anything record-breaking.

I think all this talk of '83 and '89, etc., will once again go down as more hype. Can I start getting dollars yet for every time that happens?

[wxman57]

This is a bit different EWG. Where's the bitterly cold air? As AFM pointed out, their really isn't any major league arctic air sitting up in Alaska or the northwestern territories of Canada at the present time.

You're looking in the wrong area, look closer. Just north of the Great Lakes is a large pool of -30 to -40 degree air. That airmass will be building westward then southward. Additional cold air will be coming across the Pole later this week, but there's nothing in NW Canada yet.

I see that air...I just don't think it makes it to SETX. Its sitting under the polar vortex (or what will become the PV) and that area is not conducive for the building of high pressure...so basically...the cold air will follow the flow...and the flow never dumps it from it's current area due south...and since it won't be attached to a shallow/dense high...it will be influenced by that flow more, which is why I think it heads more east after it gets dumped into the lower 48. A frigid airmass sitting north of the great lakes with the Polar Vortex in it's forecasted location is a classic setup for an arctic outbreak in the midwest and east coast.

And by the time the colder air starts to arrive later this week...there still isn't a real impressive high to dive it straight south. Plus...the air isn't that cold. Before our last cold snap (a week or so), temps were runing around -40 to -50 in AK and NW Canada. The models are progging some -20F air to come in. Big diff in how that air behaves as opposed to the former.

I think we will get a cold day...but not frigid...not unless there is a large high to transport it...I thikn it's going east of us. Just my 2 cents.

I agree there's a big question as to how much of that -30 to -40 degree air already in place is driven southward down the Plains. GFS and EC do indicate it building westward this week to north of the Dakotas by Thursday. And there could be more cold air coming across the Pole later this week. The threat for extreme cold down here is not this week, it's next week, if at all. Still just a possibility, not a probability.

Florida may get colder than Texas with this pattern. Could be some freeze problems with the citrus there. I'm thinking the 0F line may get down into northern Georgia next week. Maybe Atlanta could see temps near zero. Still a long way out.

[aggiecutter]

Just saw Bastardi's video, The Big Dog. He still says the cold wave is coming. He was very adamant about that. He thinks the GFS is in lala land. He is still riding the EURO train. He showed a CFS snow cover map for the 19th of February. It had snow cover all the way from the northern plains down into central Texas. He hasn't updated his blog today, however.