TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[Furious George]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MIN_filled.gif

HPC forecast for min lows next Sunday. Note temps as low as -24 in northern Minesota. But they don't show the cold air heading far south. Either they think the cold air will slip south after next weekend or they don't see the pressure gradients driving the cold air down. Either way, I'm a little more optimistic that next weekend will be okay temp wise (or at least Saturday).

[CajunMama]

So, at this time, how cold do you think it WILL get down here? And if what you say is cold enough, do you think there's much chance that some frozen precip will accompany it?

Yup, I'm a hopeless snow romantic.

In other words she wants to know, "How much for Beaumont!"

[aggiecutter]

I just checked the noon Ensembles and they have a 1044mb high driving the cold air deep into Texas at 192hrs. That is pretty much in tune with its operational model.

Noon Ensembles:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12812.html

[rsdoug1981]

I just checked the noon Ensembles and they have a 1044mb high driving the cold air deep into Texas at 192hrs. That is pretty much in tune with its operational model.

Noon Ensembles:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12812.html

Even the NAM is trying to develop a 1052mb high in western Canada by day 4. Of course, this isn't spectacular, but it should do the trick.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

[Air Force Met]

I just checked the noon Ensembles and they have a 1044mb high driving the cold air deep into Texas at 192hrs. That is pretty much in tune with its operational model.

Noon Ensembles:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12812.html

Actually...what you have is a 1044 high diving south and then moving east...because 1044 isn't that high for arctic air....and at 192...the GFS forecasting a high to build...that's not there yet...is a little far fetched. IT may be there and a lot stronger...or it may not be there at all...or it may be there at 1034 MB. Remember a couple of runs ago we were looking at a 1052...then it was gone. So...there is no consistancy at all.

[wall_cloud]

there is also a nice corresponding slug of -30 H85 temps progged by the NAM to move down the front range via Alberta/Manitoba by the end of the week.

[double D]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MIN_filled.gif

HPC forecast for min lows next Sunday. Note temps as low as -24 in northern Minesota. But they don't show the cold air heading far south. Either they think the cold air will slip south after next weekend or they don't see the pressure gradients driving the cold air down. Either way, I'm a little more optimistic that next weekend will be okay temp wise (or at least Saturday).

Also if you look at the trajectory of the cold air from their maps, it looks like it is going more east than south. Just my observation. I'm not sure if the HPC forecast are all that accurate to begin with.

[Air Force Met]

So, at this time, how cold do you think it WILL get down here? And if what you say is cold enough, do you think there's much chance that some frozen precip will accompany it?

Yup, I'm a hopeless snow romantic.

In other words she wants to know, "How much for Beaumont!"

I'm not sold on anything for SETX until I see the "forecasted" highs formed up and ready to do the lee-side slide. Until that is fact...and not speculation...I expect a glancing blow from this...lows in the 20's and highs in the 40's for a day or so. The bulk of this will go east unless there is 1) a change in the upper air pattern that brings the WEAKER highs due south or 2) a big high.

Now...if the southern branch gets active and brings in some precip on top of the cold air...we might see a day with highs in the 30's. Right now...the flow looks dry.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For all of you out there that actually want some bone-chilling weather, here is a good forecast for you...

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... c:USTX1290

If this MSN forecast ends up being correct (which it likely will not since it changes with each new GFS run), then we can expect a high of 33 on Tuesday the 6th in north Houston with a low of 21 that night. That would be some pretty cold stuff considering the forecast also shows "mostly clear skies" for that day.

[Extremeweatherguy]

In the shorter-term...I am already down to 35/36-degrees here tonight. Looks like a freeze is looking likely by morning.

BTW, as of 9pm, here is what the local airports are reporting:

Hooks = 38F
IAH = 43F
Hobby = 47F
Brenham = 36F
Conroe = 35F
Sugar Land = 41F
Galveston = 48F

[Air Force Met]

there is also a nice corresponding slug of -30 H85 temps progged by the NAM to move down the front range via Alberta/Manitoba by the end of the week.

I saw that...but...if you look at a forecast sounding of the model...it looks off. From the sfc to the 850 the profile follows the dry adiabat...and the sfc temp is -18C....which is 0F. -30 is -22F....which really isn't that cold for Alberta. 0 for a low is close to normal...so...it's 20 degrees below normal or near normal...depending on what you believe. I personally have a hard time believing arctic air will cool from the sfc to the 850 along the dry adiabat. Arctic air is usually much colder at the sfc than it is at 850...so...I have a hard time trusting that...but even if it is true...-22F still isn't incredible considering it is getting tapped from Siberia.

[galvbay]

Extreme....we are holding at 50.5f at 9:39 in Deer Park. Are we going to get this 'blast' or not? galvbay

[wall_cloud]

I saw that...but...if you look at a forecast sounding of the model...it looks off. From the sfc to the 850 the profile follows the dry adiabat...and the sfc temp is -18C....which is 0F. -30 is -22F....which really isn't that cold for Alberta. 0 for a low is close to normal...so...it's 20 degrees below normal or near normal...depending on what you believe. I personally have a hard time believing arctic air will cool from the sfc to the 850 along the dry adiabat. Arctic air is usually much colder at the sfc than it is at 850...so...I have a hard time trusting that...but even if it is true...-22F still isn't incredible considering it is getting tapped from Siberia.

I also have a hard time seeing complete mixing under an arctic surface high (or modified arctic for that matter). especially if there are any hints of low clouds in the cold air. Keep in mind that not all of us are at sea-level too! As we speak, the surface pressure here is 895 mb. H85 is at about 500m here

[southerngale]

So, at this time, how cold do you think it WILL get down here? And if what you say is cold enough, do you think there's much chance that some frozen precip will accompany it?

Yup, I'm a hopeless snow romantic.

In other words she wants to know, "How much for Beaumont!"

I'm not sold on anything for SETX until I see the "forecasted" highs formed up and ready to do the lee-side slide. Until that is fact...and not speculation...I expect a glancing blow from this...lows in the 20's and highs in the 40's for a day or so. The bulk of this will go east unless there is 1) a change in the upper air pattern that brings the WEAKER highs due south or 2) a big high.

Now...if the southern branch gets active and brings in some precip on top of the cold air...we might see a day with highs in the 30's. Right now...the flow looks dry.

That's not much different from what we've had recently and what we're having this week. Forecast for tonight calls for a low of 30, and we often drop a few degrees lower than forecast, and we have a few forecasted days of highs in the 40's this week, with the others 50, 51, and 54.

So basically, if we just get a glancing blow, the weather won't change much from what it is now. Not that impressive.

[A1A]

Seems like I see a SW wind for TX in these model forecasts - how can Texas get cold with that wind pattern??

[Johnny]

So basically, if we just get a glancing blow, the weather won't change much from what it is now. Not that impressive.

I agree SG...I don't see what all the hype is about. We will get cold (like we are now) but nothing to write home to momma about.

[wall_cloud]

while you MAY be right...I wouldn't write it off too soon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extreme....we are holding at 50.5f at 9:39 in Deer Park. Are we going to get this 'blast' or not? galvbay

strange that you are that warm right now b/c all the areas around you are much cooler. Ellington is at 43 right now, Hobby is at 44 and Galveston is even at 49. Could you possibly be in a warm pocket?

Either way, you guys probably will not hit freezing down there tonight. May be mid to upper 30s by morning for your area (may be warmer for you if you are really in a warmer pocket).

[Extremeweatherguy]

while you MAY be right...I wouldn't write it off too soon.

I agree. I remember with the ice event down here, many people (including the local NWS) tried to write off the precipitation chances way too soon just because that is what some of the models showed. However, the models then switched to a wetter pattern a few runs later and it ended up that we did get precipitation.

Also, before that last event, the local NWS office and most news stations were also calling for highs in the mid to upper 40s for the event (as little as 3-5 days out). In the end..it ended up that IAH was below 40 for two days.

Just goes to show that at a 4-5 day+ timeframe we can never really be 100% sure what will happen.

[southerngale]

while you MAY be right...I wouldn't write it off too soon.

I agree. I remember with the ice event down here, many people (including the local NWS) tried to write off the precipitation chances way too soon just because that is what some of the models showed. However, the models then switched to a wetter pattern a few runs later and it ended up that we did get precipitation.

Also, before that last event, the local NWS office and most news stations were also calling for highs in the mid to upper 40s for the event (as little as 3-5 days out). In the end..it ended up that IAH was below 40 for two days.

Just goes to show that at a 4-5 day+ timeframe we can never really be 100% sure what will happen.

While it got cold here, it wasn't nearly as cold as it was in early December. And as for precip, just cold rain here. There was some sleet in the area, a little ice on some things, and a few icicles here and there, but overall, not even close to what was being discussed as "possible"
I'm certainly not criticizing those who said it was possible, because it still WAS possible....just pointing out that it can certainly be significantly less than what we think (hope) it will be.