TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[CajunMama]

Perhaps ewg, you should reread wall clouds post from earlier. Mets are not going to jump on the model bandwagon and find models to suit their wishes. Their career is on the line with their forecasting. From wall cloud earlier:

Its all good and well to speculate on when the cold air will be in place. The problem is assigning your name to a forecast 20 degrees below guidance and having the cold front slow by one day. While you might have had a good forecast with timing differences, your verification scores just went in the toilet. You have to play it at least somewhat conservative until you have a better handle on timing. And day 7 really isn't the time to go gang-busters in my opinion unless you are certain. Speculating is easy. You can just say you were a bit off and move on. Sending out a forecast to the world with your name on it is quite different. Just my 2 cents.

[aggiecutter]

North Texas will see some snow. Some places might even get a lot. This pattern is playing out just like 83 and 89. Feeder shots of cold, surprise snow for Northern and Northeastern Texas, and then the main front comes through after much consternation and debate among mets in Texas and the southern plains. BTW, the GFS progs 24 hours ago for Texarkana's high today was 51. The high as of 4:00 o'clock was 41, and I am sure that will be the high for today.

Also, a couple days ago, the NWS out Shreveport predicted highs for mid-week to be in the 60's. Well, they have now done a 180 and then some. Now they are predicting highs in the upper 30's and lows near 30 and freezing rain Wednesday night and Thursday Remember, the main front wont be coming through until the friday or saturday time frame. Checkout the forecast for the whole week. What do you think the chances are their Saturday and Sunday temps will verify. I'll bet their predicted lows won't even be the highs.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 53. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. West wind around 5 mph becoming north.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of rain after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.

Wednesday Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday: A chance of freezing rain or rain. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 48.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 49.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 54.

[aggiecutter]

Cajan Mama, if I were that incompetent at my job, I would get fired, and deservedly so.

[southerngale]

Maybe because it isn't coming? I understand they don't have the same incentive as private mets, but it's truly hard to believe that the NWS guys could be off by 20° - 40° even a week out.

I've heard that if the Arctic air gets here, we could see HIGHS in the 20's.

NWS Lake Charles for Beaumont:

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 55.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 61.

While I understand what wall_cloud said and it makes sense, it's hard to believe they'd have numbers this high and even going up on Sunday. I know they have plenty of time to change the forecast, I'm just saying that even if they do drop them by quite a bit, I don't think it's going to be anything bone-chilling, colder than we've seen in many years.

Of course I'm not having to assign my name to a forecast, so I can "guess" whatever I want.

[CajunMama]

I've checked nws, accuweather and twc and none of them are calling for very cold weather yet. I believe that forecasting an artic front a week away is like forecasting exacty where a hurricane is going to hit a week away...not gonna happen with the accuracy that some are seeking. There are too many variables that come into play. Maybe i'm just too conservative and am willing to wait until 2-4 days out before i see what is going to happen.

[aggiecutter]

southerngale, they(NWS) went down nearly 30 degrees for my forecasted highs for mid-week from just 2 days ago. I'm sure I will see something similar for the weekend highs either Monday or Tuesday. I imagine what your are seeing is GFS forecasted numbers, and since the GFS doesn't handle arctic air very well, you get data that is questionable at best. We have an old saying in the Technology Industry" Garbage in, Garbage out." A poor designed program will get you bad results.

[Portastorm]

EWG ... take a deep, calming breath and R-E-L-A-X.

Chances are that the NWS forecaster on duty does not have a lot of experience in forecasting arctic outbreaks and knowing when its wise to blow up the guidance numbers and use the "gut instinct." I mean, we're talking about the Gulf Coast here and not Amarillo!

We also see the wide variances in the various computer modeling, so it does make sense to play it safe and soft peddle the numbers until one is more certain. I mean, even on here ... S2K ... all of us who live and die with every model run and every flip-flop, we're not certain if the front arrives Friday-Saturday-or even Sunday.

Its still a week out and the NWS office in Houston has the luxury of time before the pinpoint the forecast. Now ... if this was 72 hours before the event and we all knew it was coming, that's a different story!!

Give 'em a little slack and I'll do the same with my own Austin/San Antonio NWS guys.

[aggiecutter]

Portastorm, my snow-storm is there again @ 192. That is 4 runs in a row. It'll lose it tomorrow and then pick it back up around thursday or friday.

18z GFS@192:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

[southerngale]

southerngale, they(NWS) went down nearly 30 degrees for my forecasted highs for mid-week from just 2 days ago. I'm sure I will see something similar for the weekend highs either Monday or Tuesday. I imagine what your are seeing is GFS forecasted numbers, and since the GFS doesn't handle arctic air very well, you get data that is questionable at best. We have an old saying in the Technology Industry" Garbage in, Garbage out." A poor designed program will get you bad results.

Wow, that's a big drop. I know about the GFS forecasted numbers, so I don't know why I'm surprised. Maybe I'm more surprised that they still use them when the GFS has done so poorly all winter. Like...surely they're using something else by now! I guess not...


Good post, Portastorm. Frick said maybe she's just too conservative...I think she just has patience. Many of us could take a lesson in patience from her...I know I could. Tell me what's going to happen..... NOW.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, my snow-storm is there again @ 192. That is 4 runs in a row. It'll lose it tomorrow and then pick it back up around thursday or friday.

18z GFS@192:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

Yes aggiecutter, if that verifies ... you should have quite a snowstorm in your neck of Texas. Hope you have a digital camera so we can enjoy the storm, too!

[Kennethb]

Latest NCEP Ensembles show less of a threat for cold down south?

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html

[cajungal]

MSN weather is the only weather source that may be on to something in their 10 day outlook. On Feb 5th, they give my area a high of 49 degrees with a low down to 17! With a 70% chance of snow flurries. Then, on the 6th, they give a high of only 32 with 50% chance of light rain. Of course, this will probably change again. I will take any winter forecast down here with a grain of salt until it is 36 hours out.