Concerning thunderstorm potential for Florida early Sunday

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tbstorm
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Concerning thunderstorm potential for Florida early Sunday

#1 Postby tbstorm » Sat Jan 27, 2007 8:51 pm

We have a developing low south of New Orleans that's expected to move.. very quickly... and be over (big bend) Florida by about 4am Sunday. Some decent winds at 850mb...
Image

Local mets were talking about the possibility of a squall line forming in the gulf. But... I dont see anything out there yet
Image

SPC does mention

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO MOVE ONTO THE FL PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT
NEAR OR TO THE S OF SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONT. HERE...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN QUITE WEAK /SBCAPES AOB 300-400 J PER KG/...HOWEVER BOTH LOW
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY.

AS SUCH...SOME THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND GUST
WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE. THIS
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.



Just to compare to the last major squall line we had here in Florida on Dec 25 looked like this...
Image (that's a decent looking squall line).

So.. Concerning thunderstorm potential for Florida early Sunday let's just
say I'll believe it when I see it.
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#2 Postby tbstorm » Sat Jan 27, 2007 9:07 pm

BTW I am using imageshack for my images, but I cant get them to display full resolution in my post. (Always getting the thumbnails).

Any suggestions out there for displaying the images in their original resolution?
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cpdaman
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#3 Postby cpdaman » Sun Jan 28, 2007 12:00 am

strong LINE of thunderstorms approaching big bend area of florida up through tallahassee

http://intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPa ... odnav=none
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#4 Postby tbstorm » Sun Jan 28, 2007 1:43 am

Yeah, I saw that a few hrs ago coming on shore near Panama City... looks like its thinning out quite a bit up there in the Tallahassee area.

I was watching the bouy that is offshore SW of Apalachicola; they had sustained winds of 38 gusting to 47. I think this may be the wind surge they were referring to. I'm bearish on the tstorms but think we could see a brief period of some strong winds (40+ mph gusts?) along the Fl coast btwn Tampa to Cross City area.
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