Southern States - LA-MS-AL-GA-TN Winter Storm Potential

[hurricanedude]

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama


Long term (tuesday through next saturday)...stays below normal with
regard to temperatures through most of the long term period as well.
During the middle part of the week...another area of low pressure is
prognosticated to develop over the western Gulf and move east south of our
area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Things could get interesting with
regard to chance of precipitation and precipitation type late Tuesday night and early
Wednesday morning with the cold air already in place.

[icicle]

It seems Birmingham has backed off somewhat on their cold forecast... no one seems to know whats gonna happen..


NWS, Birmingham.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY 45 TO 55...WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY BACK INTO THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH AS COLDER
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING WITH READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S AND IN THE 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ONCE ALL THE
MOISTURE IS GONE OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MIDDLE 30S SOUTH

[Janie2006]

LONG TERM...
SEVERAL MORE SIMILAR TYPE SYSTEMS ARE LINED UP TO MOVE THROUGH THE
GULF DURING THE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL TAKE THEM DOWN ONE AT A TIME AS
THEY COME WITHIN THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST.

LOL! I suppose the people in New Orleans had better things to do this morning than bother with the long term forecast in their AFD.

[ams30721]

latest GFS trends this morning has been to bring much colder air in and moisture in wed night into thu....the 06z and 12z show this looks like atlanta nws morning forecast is going to be reversed as they do going by the gfs differing soulutions each time.....they brought in 50s and 60s for that time period with a chance of storms and severe weather and now looks like they are going to have to add in wintry precip for us and about 25-30 degrees off those temps....haha
[/img]

[icicle]

^ya, the local forecasters here are saying highs in the 50's and 60's for thursday, friday, and saturday. looks like an about face is in order from them too.

EDIT to add: this is interesting, from NWS, norman okla.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php?map=2

[HarlequinBoy]

Still waiting on AFDs, but the forecast has been updated.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 41.

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow or rain. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 43.

That's the forecast for Northern Mississippi. This is one of the better chances for Wintry Precip we've had this Winter. However, I'm still not ready to think too much of it. It's going to be a rather cold week though. Tonight lows are expected to be around 20.

[HarlequinBoy]

Memphis AFD is in.

MONDAYS WARM UP WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL
ONCE AGAIN FILTER IN ON TUESDAY UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS IN. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN TURN RATHER INTERESTING BY
MID WEEK AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
EJECTS EASTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST
WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY OVER THE REGION
BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AND SLOW TO MODIFY...EXPECT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AMONG
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE 12Z ECMWF A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE 12Z GFS RUN. AT THIS POINT...PLACING MORE CONFIDENCE IN
THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS...DUE TO BETTER RUN TO RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY. THE ECMWF IS ALSO SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN THE GFS...BUT
STILL COLD ENOUGH TO PROVE PROBLEMATIC WITH PRECIP TYPE DURING MID
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT
TO THE IDEA THAT WINTER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF
THE MID SOUTH. OF COURSE THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE HASHED OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR NOW WILL
BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY FOR WINTER WEATHER IN THE HWO.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...IT
WILL HELP TO DRAG DOWN MORE COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH OVER
THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AFTER FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A POSSIBLY EVEN STRONGER ARCTIC AIRMASS
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

Soooo, that was interesting. lol I'm interested in what surrounding offices are saying too, so I'll have to check that out. Temps appear to be borderline in the southern half of the Mid South so I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with a cold rain with a wintry mix from Memphis northward. Although the past few years, the northwest Delta usually ends up getting about the same as Memphis does.

Little Rock AFD (used for comparism)

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE WRF10KM 28.12 WHICH SHOWS
MEAN RH WILL BE RATHER LOW THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO OUR REGION. ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE ONE OF SEVERAL ARCTIC PLUNGES IN THE COMING
DAYS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER MOST OF ARKANSAS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK.(38)


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FRIDAY STARTS WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. & HAS
IT MOVING EAST...WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT. A COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE NEXT
ARCTIC SURGE. THE LOW CHANCE POP REMAINS IN THE FORECAST...WITH A
WINTERY MIX OVER NORTHERN SPOTS OF AR...WHILE MAINLY RAIN SOUTHERN
PARTS. CENTRAL AR IS THE IN BETWEEN LOCATIONS. OVERALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED SPEED OF SHORTWAVES. THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL & EAST
U.S...AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL SOUTH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO BE THE HARDEST TO TIME...BUT WITH THIS PATTERN...NO
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BE SEEN...JUST CLIPPERS. TEMPS GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[icicle]

wow, it seems Birmingham has changed their tune....


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES...PRESENCE OF COLD
AIR AT THE SURFACE...AND RETURNING MOISTURE...ARE MAKING FOR A
RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST. WRF/NAM AND GFS BOTH AGREE IN A SURFACE
HIGH FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS GOES
BONKERS RETURNING MOISTURE AND BRINGING IN PRECIP THROUGH THE
NIGHT...TO THE TUNE OF 80+ POPS. GFS FORECAST PROFILES FOR THE
PERIOD INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD BE CONCERN FOR SOME SORT OF
WINTRY PRECIP...MOST LIKELY SLEET...POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN...
BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...IT STANDS
ALONE IN GENERATING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY IN THE
GULF...AND COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS...IS LIKELY TO BE OVERDONE
WITH EASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN COOL DRY AIR BELOW INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE. GEM/EURO/NOGAPS...AND WRF/NAM THROUGH 84 HOURS...
DO NOT SUPPORT THE GULF CYCLOGENESIS...BUT DO AGREE ON GRADUALLY
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALOFT.

[GeneratorPower]

GFS @ 204 Hours showing a major snow/ice storm for the south. Take a look...

[icicle]

NWS, Memphis.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS A
POSSIBILITY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH...SO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THINK A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRACK TO NORTH GEORGIA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL ALLOW
FOR GOOD EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS.
THICKNESS SCHEMES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT PINPOINT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND EXACT
LOCATION AND KEEP RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN FORECAST. WILL KEEP MENTION
OF POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE HWO. SIMPLY...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BAND OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
SOMEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

BEYOND THURSDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND AS SOME LONG TERM MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON MOVING
INTO THE MIDSOUTH. ALTHOUGH A FEW IMPULSES MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERALL.

EDIT: check this thread out, I think you'll find it....interesting.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 01#1513701

[icicle]

84 hrs.
I'm sure this wont happen. My local weather forecasters here are calling for hi's in the 40's with rain.

[GeneratorPower]

Check this out. The first major sign of a possible winter wx event in the South for some time.

[GeneratorPower]

Congrats, icicle, on being in the "Zone of Uncertainty"

[icicle]

hehe. I would rather have rain than ice. Its gonna be a close call, thats for sure.

[HarlequinBoy]

That map goes right over here.

I'd like to here what some pro mets think.

The local mets said they thought some accumulation was possible Wednesday night here, but I don't trust their forecasts too much.

[icicle]

Noaa weather radio is already sounding the alarm here, saying "possible wintry accumulations are possible wed. nite thru mid-day thurs''. the T.V. mets are still saying rain with hi's in the 40's/50's.

[GeneratorPower]

HarlequinBoy, your profile says "The Mississippi Delta". I always thought that was near New Orleans. Can you clarify your location?

[T-man]

Forecast calls for two inches here at my location thursday. Two inches of rain!

[rsdoug1981]

HarlequinBoy, your profile says "The Mississippi Delta". I always thought that was near New Orleans. Can you clarify your location?

The "Delta" is considered the flatter region that runs south of Memphis along the Mississippi River to about Yazoo City, MS. It is a little confusing as it's not a delta in the geographical sense.

[GeneratorPower]

Ah, Canton, near Jackson, MS.