Southern States - LA-MS-AL-GA-TN Winter Storm Potential

[drezee]

The 240+ hr 12z GFS looks like one of the snow storms from the 1800’s in the Deep South. It prints out 4-6 inches of dynamic snow or almost a half inch of ice for New Orleans? Mobile? Birmingham 10-12 inches in the -8 850 isotherm? WOW!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240m.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252m.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264m.gif


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264m.gif

[Lowpressure]

Those runs depict a MAJOR snow/ice event for the south. Even though that is probably overdone, it is the third of fourth run showing a southern snowstorm for the Feb 3rd-4th timeframe. Continuity is getting good, does it have any other model support is the question?

[icicle]

this is pretty much in agreement as well.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/8d/gfsx_pres_8d.html

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/8e/gfsx_pres_8e.html


this is from mobile, AL NWS..

ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COULD SEE SEVERAL DAYS WITH NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING AND BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME MAXIMUMS. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
TEMPERATURE AND PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE 12 UTC RUNS
THIS MORNING SHOWS AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING DURING THE TIME OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES...AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL GULF LOW IS PROGGED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS IS
BUT ONE RUN THAT FORECASTERS HAVE SEEN THESE TYPES OF CHANGES. THE
LATEST APPROACH IS TO TAKE THINGS WITH CAUTION. ITS ALWAYS BEST TO
SEE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THIS FAR OUT. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING THE FROZEN STUFF YET. /10

[HarlequinBoy]

Interesting.. Memphis has added a chance for snow into the forecast for northern Mississippi on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Wednesday Night...A 30 percent chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.

Thursday...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain or snow. Highs in the mid 40s.

[timNms]

So what does all this mean for South Mississippi (Hattiesburg, Laurel area)? Am I going to be looking at snow days off from school and having to use Easter break days for this? LOL

[rsdoug1981]

So what does all this mean for South Mississippi (Hattiesburg, Laurel area)? Am I going to be looking at snow days off from school and having to use Easter break days for this? LOL

I wouldn't salt the driveway just yet. Maybe later on....

[GeneratorPower]

Still not seeing much in the AFDs for the Southern States. I'll keep checking.

I'm not posting quotes from AFDs where they just say "we're keeping an eye on the models." That's a foregone conclusion.

[icicle]

ya, it was there for a little while, but its gone now...

Interesting.. Memphis has added a chance for snow into the forecast for northern Mississippi on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Wednesday Night...A 30 percent chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.

Thursday...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain or snow. Highs in the mid 40s.

[timNms]

From Jackson NWS at 4:28 am today:

TEMPERATURES REALLY DROP ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MS/AL BORDER BY MIDDAY AND THEN PUSHES TO GA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS SHOWING 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS FROM MINUS 2 TO MINUS 6 ACROSS THE CWFA. A SURGE OF EVEN DRIER ARCTIC AIR BUBBLE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AS 1026MB HIGH CENTER SINKS FROM NE TO WRN KY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. COULD ALSO SEE A BOUT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT HOLDING OFF ABOUT MENTIONING THIS POSSIBILITY FOR NOW. GFS HAS TRENDED WETTER BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS WE SET UP FOR EVEN BIGGER COOL DOWN TO START FEBRUARY.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING VERY COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH CANADA AND INTO THE CONUS. THESE PATTERNS TYPICALLY BRING US OUR COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AND THE FIRST WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY COULD BE A REAL BONE-CHILLER. CURRENTLY... IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ONCE WE ARE INTO THE ARCTIC AIR...THE PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES WILL COVER ALL THE BASES FOR WINTER MIXTURES.

[icicle]

Tx winter weather threat # 9, page 14, close to the bottom, Jeff's post. if that is correct, we're in for some extreme weather...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=260

[HarlequinBoy]

ya, it was there for a little while, but its gone now...

Interesting.. Memphis has added a chance for snow into the forecast for northern Mississippi on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Wednesday Night...A 30 percent chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.

Thursday...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain or snow. Highs in the mid 40s.

I know. But it could still change back! Either way it's going to be a cold week.

[icicle]

they had snow chances not only for sat. nite, but wednesday and thursday as well, but Its all rain now. alot of the pro mets here are saying the week after next could be interesting. we shall see.

[GeneratorPower]

Still nothing of note for the AFDs from this afternoon. Still waiting on Memphis to come in, and Birmingham, AL.

They are all mentioning the cold air somewhat, though.

[icicle]

from birmingham.

UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN IT`S EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND IS
NOW MOVING INTO TX. IT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW
OFF THE EAST COAST OF TX AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OVER
THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY EVENTUALLY YIELDING RAIN LATE IN THE EVENING AND INTO THE
NIGHT. COLD AIR ARRIVES AS DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SOME DISCREPANCIES HAVE CREEPED UP IN THE MODELS DURING MID-WEEK
ZONAL FLOW. GFS IS NOW DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST
LINE OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. ON TUESDAY BRINGING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL
AL. THIS IS THE FIRST RUN OF ANY MODEL THAT IT HAS SHOWED UP ON.
TO AGGREVIATE THE SITUATION...SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE DURING
THIS SITUATION WOULD RESULT IN AREA-WIDE SLEET. DECIDED TO STAY
THE COURSE WITH LOW POPS AND JUST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS THIS
PACKAGE. MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS NEEDED BEFORE JUMPING ON
THE BANDWAGON.

OVERALL...AFTER SUNDAY`S COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

[icicle]

things are looking interesting for wed. through thurs. nite...


Memphis NWS....(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...00Z LONG RANGE MODELS
FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE EAST HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN ARCTIC LOW WOBBLES AROUND
HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. MENTIONED RAIN/SNOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP AT OR BELOW
FREEZING.

[timNms]

NWS in Jackson keeps flipping back and forth between cold and not so cold. Guess we'll have to wait till next week to see

[ams30721]

from HPC today
"THE AREA OF HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY WILL LIE ALONG THE SERN STATES
DAY 4 AND BEYOND WHERE SEVERAL FAST-MOVING WAVES MAY INSTIGATE
MDT/HVY PCPN ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. THE NRN EDGE OF THESE
PCPN AREAS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...NOT ONLY CONCERNING QPF...BUT
ALSO PRECIP TYPE. WOULD THINK THAT SOME SN/ZR/IP ARE PSBL ALONG
THE NRN EDGES OF ANY PRECIP SHIELDS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES
NEXT WEEK."

[HarlequinBoy]

The Afternoon AFD and Forecast for the Mid-South is a bit more promising.

According to the AFD some Wintry Precip is a possibility on Wednesday and more likely on Friday and Saturday. Thursday should be warm enough for all rain. Right now it's still further out into the forecast so it's likely to change considerably between now and mid-to-late week.

NW Mississippi

Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain or snow. Lows in the lower 30s.

Thursday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Highs in the mid 40s.

Thursday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Lows in the mid 30s.

Friday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs in the upper 40s.

Friday Night...Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain or snow. Lows in the lower 30s.

Saturday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain or snow. Highs in the lower 40s.

[Lowpressure]

Charlotte starting to join in the snow forecast, saying mostly diurnal in nature so far. Thursday is the first time in the forecast.

[breeze]

We're due a potential dusting of snow tonight. Wednesday night into
Thursday calls for a "slight chance of snow", also. It doesn't look very
promising. I'll have to keep my eye on that February 4th - 8th Artic outbreak.
The joke around here is "get out your magnifying glass" if
you want to see snow - and, if the chance is at night, "get out your
flashlight, too"!

~Annette~